Michigan State vs Purdue Pick & Prediction: Ride Sparty?

Michigan State looks to bounce back from its two-game skid as it travels for its toughest test yet — a road date with Purdue.

The Boilermakers have rolled through the Big Ten behind 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and are 11-1 in their last 12 conference games. Purdue has yet to lose in the friendly confines of Mackey Arena and has a two-game lead over Illinois.

Can Purdue continue its success as a heavy favorite, or will Michigan State play spoiler? Here's a Michigan State vs Purdue pick and a prediction.

There’s not a team more confusing than Michigan State. After seemingly supplanting itself in the NCAA tournament, the Spartans dropped back-to-back home games against Iowa and Ohio State.

Because of that, it’s no surprise that Sparty is close to 300th in Haslametrics’ consistency rankings.

Michigan State is an experienced team and has a talented veteran-led backcourt in Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard.

Walker leads the team with 18.1 points per game and takes nearly a third of all shots while on the floor. He doesn't turn the ball over and has been a steady, high-volume scorer from the perimeter. Perhaps most notable is his 1.9 steals per game; he's third in Big Ten play in steal rate.

Michigan State’s offense ranks 42nd in Adjusted Efficiency and looks to attack through the pick-and-roll, using its backcourt to create. Both Walker and Hoggard are great at creating their own shots, as they try to find a mismatch and attack through the mid-range.

Though Michigan State doesn't shoot a lot of 3s, ShotQuality ranks this team 23rd on catch-and-shoot 3s and 19th in off-the-dribble 3s. Again, a lot of this circles back to the duo of Walker and Hoggard.

It should be noted that Malik Hall is playing much better of late and is the key to Michigan State’s long-term success. An efficient scorer is a huge plus and in Big Ten play, Hall ranks fourth in true-shooting percentage. He's also the best at both drawing and finishing through contact.

Defensively is where Michigan State is best — though it's prone to being beaten up on the boards. MSU is 15th in Adjusted Efficiency and is the third-best defensive team in Big Ten play, per KenPom.

We’ve seen an increase in aggressiveness on the defensive end from Sparty, as it's forcing more turnovers than normal and has shown ability to guard the perimeter well.

In general, teams attack MSU from the perimeter at a high rate, as Sparty looks to force you out of the paint and into the mid-range (23%) or onto the perimeter.

So long as Zach Edey is on the floor, this Purdue offense remains one of the best in college basketball.

The 7-foot-4 Edey is impossible to slow down. He's used on 34% of all possessions in Big Ten play and ranks first in true-shooting percentage, both offensive and defensive rebounding rate and fouls drawn per 40 minutes (9.1).

His sheer size calls for consistent double teams and thanks to a high IQ, he's able to kick the ball out and find an open shooter. Nearly 27% of all the Boilermakers' 3s are wide open, per ShotQuality.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Purdue is top-15 in both offensive rebounding and FTA/FGA thanks to Edey. In large part to the open 3s, the Boilermakers also rank third in 3-point percentage, with Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Mason Gillis all shooting 40%+ from the perimeter.

ShotQuality, however, expects negative regression to come for Purdue, specifically from deep. Purdue is shooting 6% higher than expected and ranks outside the top 175 in catch-and-shoot 3s, which the team takes on a quarter of all possessions.

Someone like Gillis, for example, has overperformed (13% higher than last season), as well as Loyer (8% jump).

The way to beat this team is by successfully pressuring the Purdue ball handlers and forcing them into mistakes. As good as Smith is, he does average nearly three turnovers per game.

Lance Jones has provided some assistance to breaking on-ball pressure and has been key in Purdue’s Big Ten success. He's second on the team in points (13.0).

As expected on the opposite end of the floor, Edey is a rim deterrent. Based on sheer size alone, teams are forced to settle in the mid-range (24%) nearly as often as finishing at the rim (31%). Edey is a mobile big and is often able to hold his own in the pick-and-roll.

Trying to draw an Edey switch is how teams try to attack before kicking it out for a 3. Purdue gives up a high volume of looks from distance, and ShotQuality grades the Boilermakers 139th on catch-and-shoot 3s and 234th on off-the-dribble 3s.

Purdue doesn't force turnovers and teams often try to run quickly on the defense to escape Edey’s looming presence inside.

As expected, this is an elite defensive rebounding team so long as Edey is on the floor.

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The inconsistency of Michigan State might actually be a plus in this matchup. After two straight losses, we find Sparty as double-digit underdogs to a Purdue team. I actually believe the Spartans have a fighting chance at an outright upset.

No team is going to be able to shut down Edey, but Michigan State holds a strong edge in the backcourt. The duo of Walker and Hoggard should be able to take on Smith and Loyer by using the pick-and-roll to keep Purdue on its feet and scrambling.

The Boilermakers rank outside the top 130 in defending catch-and-shoot 3s and give up plenty of good looks on the defensive end. ShotQuality actually ranks this defense 30th — and that’s primarily driven by Edey’s presence.

Given Hall’s recent form, I expect Michigan State to be able to keep pace and stay within striking distance. This defense is strong enough to force the Boilermakers into tough shots (fourth percentile in shot selection), create enough turnovers to push transition and keep Edey away from living under the basket.

I would back Sparty as a double-digit underdog here. This is a hold your nose spot given its recent form, but expect an all-out effort from Michigan State.

I’m not sure the same can be said for Purdue, which has a date at Illinois on Tuesday to look ahead to.

Pick: Michigan State +10