The Michigan Wolverines take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, PA. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Michigan is favored by 20.5 points on the spread and a moneyline of -5000. The total is set at 166.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Penn State prediction and college basketball picks for January 6, 2026.
Michigan vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Pick
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 166.5 -110 / -110 | -5000 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 166.5 -110 / -110 | +1600 |
My Pick: Michigan -25 (Play to -28)
My Michigan vs Penn State best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs Penn State NCAAB Betting Preview
Michigan Basketball
Michigan covered another lofty spread in its impressive win over USC last week. The Wolverines remain one of the most profitable college basketball teams in the country, sitting at 9-4 ATS, good for a 69% hit rate.
However, the more Michigan covers, the higher the numbers will go. Let’s see if we’ve reached our breaking point here.
The Wolverines' defense is one of the best overall units I’ve seen in years. They boast the nation’s best defense, per KenPom, and they hold teams to just 38.5% shooting on 2s — nobody else in college basketball holds teams to below 41% from 2.
That’s a byproduct of the Wolverines' imposing length.
Dusty May has the luxury of starting three players 6-foot-9 or taller, and two of them are elite passers. Yaxel Lendeborg can operate like a guard with his ball-handling and sweet stroke from deep, while Aday Mara and his 7-foot-4 frame are a nightmare to face.
And I didn't even mention the physical specimen that is Morez Johnson Jr., who averages 14.8 points and 6.7 rebounds in just 22 minutes per game.
The scary thing about Michigan? It scored 1.15 PPP in the win over USC despite going 6-for-30 from deep. That's what can happen with a squad like the Wolverines, which gets endless stops and pushes the pace (fourth in adjusted tempo).
If the Wolverines have a good shooting night, it's almost a sure blowout against a team like Penn State.
Shooting is a pretty pivotal part of the Wolverines' offense, and their size forcing teams to pack the paint leads to them attempting 3s on 42% of their field goal attempts. They shoot 36% from deep, and all of their guards hover around that number — if not better.
Penn State Basketball
Penn State will be in a lightweight fight with Rutgers and Maryland for the last spot in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions have played terribly of late, losing four of their last five games, including a 80-46 loss to a lowly Pittsburgh squad.
The Nittany Lions really only have two ways to compete here. One is if they force a bunch of turnovers. Mike Rhoades is known for a defense that aims for turnovers, and his Nittany Lions force those 20% of the time.
The other way is by having a hot shooting day. Penn State attempts 3s on just 37% of its field goals, while drilling 33% on those attempts. Four of the five starters in Penn State's lineup shoot below 34% from deep. Eli Rice is the only reliable marksman on the team, so getting hot from deep feels unlikely.
Outside of the turnovers, Penn State is brutal on the defensive end, ranking 182nd in defensive efficiency. The Nittany Lions rank 298th in 2-point field percentage allowed and 299th in 3-point percentage allowed.
They'll have a very tough time forcing Michigan to miss shots, so they'll almost need to pray that Michigan misses good looks.
Freshman guard Kayden Mingo is one of the few bright spots for Penn State. Mingo is an electric driver, leading to him averaging 14.9 points and 4.5 assists per game. He's a bad shooter, though, which limits him a bit.
However, he's clearly the best player on Penn State's roster.
Michigan vs. Penn State Betting Analysis
How could you not lay the points here? I mean, we're talking about the same team that allowed 113 to Indiana and lost by 40 to Pitt.
Michigan is a total wagon, and this isn't the spot where it ends its streak of covering the spread.
I know laying 25.5 points in a conference road game is basically unheard of, but the Wolverines are playing a team outside KenPom's top 100.
It would be different if Penn State were even a top-75 team, but this roster is pretty brutal.
My Pick: Michigan -25 (Play to -28)
