Missouri Valley Tournament Betting Preview, Odds, Picks & Bracket

Arch Madness is regarded as one of the most entertaining conference tournaments in the mid-major landscape. It’s for a good reason, too; there are typically instant classics between teams capable of winning NCAA tournament games.

Last year, the Drake Bulldogs outlasted Bradley in the conference tournament championship and fell short to Miami in the NCAA tournament's Round of 64.

Here’s to hoping the Valley winner gets a different March result in 2024.

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Odds

Missouri Valley Tournament Bracket

It feels like a forgone conclusion one of the big dogs — Indiana State or Drake — will win Arch Madness and be a trendy NCAA tournament “upset” pick.

Should that be the case, though?

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Indiana State is the odds-on-favorite (+170) to win the conference tournament and is looking to end a 13-year NCAA tournament-less drought. The team has only made four tournament appearances ever and only advanced in the dance twice.

We’re not talking about some juggernaut in college hoops lore here. So, why is Indiana State the favorite?

The Sycamores won the regular season conference title with a 26-5 overall record and lost only three times during conference play. Two of the losses came in tough road games against Drake and Southern Illinois, while losing at home against Illinois State sent shockwaves across the college hoops world.

Josh Schertz is arguably the sharpest offensive mind in the college game. The offensive mastermind led Indiana State to the 25th-best offense in the sport on an efficiency basis.

The Sycamores hold the nation’s top effective field goal percentage, shooting 38% from 3 (11th-best), 62% from two (second-best) and 80% from the foul line (fourth-best.)

You just don’t find many teams who score the ball at such an efficient clip.

The Drake Bulldogs (+210) enter Arch Madness with a 25-6 record, and lost only four times in conference play. Darian DeVries' squad split the season series with Indiana State, winning in Des Moines and losing in Terre Haute.

Tucker DeVries is one of the elite scorers in college hoops, averaging over 21 points per game. He's a dangerous player who can attack from all three levels, and he developed a newfound passing game this season.

The potential MVC POY recipient is the type of player who could lead Drake to back-to-back Arch Madness dubs.

DeVries isn't the only big-time guard scorer in Drake's system, though. Atin Wright and freshman wing Kevin Overton both average double-digit points per contest. It's no one-man show.

What's the potential downfall in Drake's game? I'd venture to say point guard play remains a concern. Colby Garland and Conor Enright are solid floor generals, but how will the two younger guards respond against intense defensive pressure in March?

We don't know the answer yet.

The Braves finished top-75 in KenPom and won 20+ games once again.

Brian Wardle is an elite college basketball coach, and catching +380 to win the conference tournament isn't an awful look.

Bradley's potential March success relies on perimeter shooting, as over 40% of the team's field goals come from downtown. If the trio of Duke Deen, Connor Hickman and Malevy Leons step up, Bradley could make a run.

That's a fantastic trio to bring into the conference tournament.

The issue? Bradley went 0-3 in games against Drake and Indiana State. As the three-seed, Bradley likely needs wins over both to win the conference tournament, and that path is brutal.

Deep-Cut Dog Worth a Look

Belmont (+1500) won seven of its final eight Missouri Valley games. Like Bradley, Belmont didn't perform well against the conference’s top dogs, finishing 1-3 against Drake and Indiana State.

However, the one win against Drake did prove that on the right night, Belmont could make a push against awesome teams.

In conference play, Belmont is the Valley’s best shooting team, converting on 37.9% of its 3-point attempts. All five Bruins starters can stretch the floor and shoot it, led by point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie.

The sophomore from Greenville posted 17.9 points and 4.2 assists per game while shooting a staggering 57% from the field. You don’t see many guards shooting nearly 60% from the floor, but Gillespie operates in the lane and can score while confidentially dishing to shooters.

The Bruins have an elite trio with Gillespie, Malik Dia and Cade Tyson — plus the team shoots it well from 3. That’s a winning formula in March.

I don’t hate grabbing +1500 with the Bruins, as Belmont is plenty talented and worth the bet.

Best MVC Tournament Bet

Indiana State won the conference regular season title and is catching plus money in the postseason tournament. I'm not complaining about that at all.

I like Drake, don't get me wrong but there's one singular matchup advantage that terrifies me for the Bulldogs in a third matchup against the Sycamores.

The matchup is Robbie Avila facing the plodding, physical big man Darnell Brodie. We know Indiana State will space the floor and shoot 3s nearly half the time, and putting Brodie into space will be a problem for the Bulldogs.

If Avila isn't shooting well, he can put the ball on the deck and either try sneaking past Brodie or dishing it to one of the four shooters patrolling the perimeter.

The biggest key player, though, is Isaiah Swope. The junior guard struggled a bit in the past month. He's dealing with a knee injury — which he'll need surgery for after the season ends — but he's gutting it out right now.

Swope scored 14 or fewer points in the past four games — all games Indiana State won by double digits. If Swope can just provide shooting and backcourt stability, it's a huge win.

Feel free to take the Trees. It's the best play. There's just a special aura around one of the elite offensive teams in America.