The Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers take on the Merrimack Warriors in North Andover, MA. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Merrimack is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. The total is set at 135.5 points.
Here’s my Mount St. Mary's vs. Merrimack prediction and college basketball picks for January 2, 2026.
Mount St. Mary's vs Merrimack Prediction
My Pick: Under 135.5 (Play to 129)
My Mount St. Mary's vs Merrimack best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mount St. Mary's vs. Merrimack Odds
| Mount St. Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 135.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Merrimack Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 135.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
- Mount St. Mary's vs Merrimack spread: Merrimack -4.5
- Mount St. Mary's vs Merrimack over/under: 135.5 points
- Mount St. Mary's vs Merrimack moneyline: Mount St. Mary's +150, Merrimack -180
Mount St. Mary's vs Merrimack College Basketball Betting Preview
Mount St. Mary's Basketball
Mount St. Mary's was eyeing a 0-3 start in MAAC play until it saved the game with a late rally versus Iona. The Mountaineers' defense held Iona to 0.78 PPP and will need another performance like that to beat Merrimack.
The Mountaineers' offense is among the worst in the MAAC. It's hard to win games when your offense turns the ball over on nearly a quarter of possessions. They turn it over 24% of the time, which is the worst mark in America.
Shooting also limits this Mount St. Mary's offense, as it attempts 3s on 45% of shots but connects on a below-average 33% of them.
Donny Lind should shift his focus to feeding the bigs more. The leading scorer for the Mount is 6-foot-11 post stud Luke McEldon, who doesn't get enough shots due to turnovers and a lack of emphasis on feeding the post.
McEldon's frontcourt mate — Justin Amadi — is another threat inside. That pair has a clear size advantage over Merrimack's bigs, so Lind could look to force-feed them the ball.
Unfortunately for the Mount, it grabs offensive boards just 27% of the time. That's not a good enough number with how bad the offense is.
Mount St. Mary's is fairly mediocre on the defensive end, ranking 205th in defensive efficiency. Its main strong suit is limiting teams from scoring inside, as opposing teams shoot just 50.2% on 2s.
Keeping a clean eye on the 3-point line will also be huge. Opponents let it fly from deep on 45% of field goal attempts. That'll be a pivotal part of this game.
Merrimack Basketball
Merrimack opened MAAC play with an uncharacteristic 80-point win over Sacred Heart. The Warriors scored 1.21 PPP and hit 12 3s, and it'll be hard to top that offensive showing.
That feels like an outlier for a team that ranks 267th in offensive efficiency, while shooting 30% from deep and 47% from inside the arc.
Occasional hot shooting nights will happen for a team that shoots 49% of its shots from deep. But Merrimack isn't used to being that hot from 3-point range.
Merrimack has more offensive talent than it's had in the past few seasons, though — four scorers average nine-plus points per game (Kevair Kennedy, Ernest Shelton, Tye Dorset, Andres Marrero).
Kennedy is a bigger version of former Merrimack guard Adam "Budd" Clark, a shifty guard who lives in the lane. He leads them with 15 points per game.
The other three are pure shooters who attempt five-plus 3s per contest.
The "make chaos" zone run by head coach Joe Gallo powers Merrimack. The Warriors' defense is just 225th in defensive efficiency, down from what it was the past couple of seasons.
However, I'll put my faith in Gallo to expose the terrible turnover issues from Mount St. Mary's. The Warriors' strength is making things ugly, as they force turnovers 19% of the time.
Mount St. Mary's vs. Merrimack Betting Analysis
Overall, the Warriors have dealt with defensive issues when they don't force turnovers. They're middle of the pack nationally in 2-point and 3-point field goal defense. Some schools in the MAAC would be fine with that, but not Merrimack.
These two faced off twice last year, with the Mount winning both affairs. Both teams struggled to score, as the final score was a total of 124 and 112 points.
Now things are a bit different this time. Merrimack isn't as good defensively, but the core principles remain.
The Warriors will look to play slow, and the Mount turns it over an absurd amount.
That should result in a relatively low-scoring contest. I expect another game in the 60-point range, thus not reaching the over of 135.5.
My Pick: Under 135.5 (Play to 129)
