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Virginia Favored Over Michigan State in National Championship Lookahead Lines


Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ty Jerome

  • Betting odds have been released for the four possible NCAA Tournament National Championship Games.
  • Virginia is a slight favorite over Michigan State in the most likely of the four matchups.

The NCAA Tournament National Championship Game is still a full week away, and we won’t know the matchup for another five days, but that hasn’t stopped sportsbooks from releasing lines for all four possible matchups. Yep, even an Auburn-Texas Tech showdown deserves a lookahead point spread.

As the only 1-seed remaining, Virginia is favored in both of its potential matchups, though only slightly over No. 2 Michigan State.

All lines from Westgate Superbook as of Apr. 1, 7 p.m. ET.

#1 Virginia vs. #2 Michigan State

Point spread: Virginia -1 (-110)

Our projections give this a 40.8% chance of being the championship matchup. Unsurprisingly, that’s the most likely outcome of the four possible games. With Virginia the slight favorite, the Cavs are also the most likely champion in our model (39.6%).

#1 Virginia vs. #3 Texas Tech

Point spread: Virginia -3 (-110)

The next most likely matchup by our projections has a 28.3% chance of taking place. If it were to happen, it would almost surely break the record for the lowest total for a national championship in our database.

#2 Michigan State vs. #5 Auburn

Point spread: Michigan State -4.5 (-110)

Since Virginia has no chance to play Auburn in the final, this is the largest point spread of the four potential matchups. It’s a shade less than the current UVA-Auburn spread, which sits at UVA -5 for the time being.

#3 Texas Tech vs. #5 Auburn

Point spread: Texas Tech -2 (-110)

Onto the least likely matchup. This one has just a 12.7% chance of happening, and would be the first time in five years that the championship was won by a team that wasn’t a 1- or 2-seed.

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