The NCAA Tournament bracket is out, so it’s time to let the outrage flow.
There aren't as many gripes to have as 2025, but I was able to find a few overseeded and underseeded teams that warrant discussion.
Dive in below for my NCAA Tournament analysis, including the most overseeded and underseeded teams in March Madness.
Overseeded Teams
BYU Cougars
I think BYU landing on the six-line was the best result for the Cougars.
It feels a bit high, though.
Since sharpshooting wing Richie Saunders went down, BYU is just 45th in T-Rank. The committee considered injuries with other teams (UNC, Texas Tech, etc), but seemingly not for the Cougars.
Of course, AJ Dybantsa is special, and perhaps the late wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech carried a lot of weight.
But I can’t ignore ugly losses to West Virginia, Cincinnati and UCF — two of which were highly uncompetitive.
Clemson Tigers
Take my thoughts on BYU without Saunders and apply them to Clemson sans Carter Welling, who suffered a season-ending injury in the ACC Tournament.
The Tigers came in two seed lines above Texas A&M, and the two have a three-spot difference in KenPom.
I just haven’t seen much that “wows” me about the Tigers. They lost five of their final seven regular season games and beat a bad Wake Forest team and a shorthanded UNC team in the ACC Tournament.
None of that warrants them being an eight seed to me.
Troy Trojans
I actually do like Troy’s first round matchup against Nebraska, but I don’t think the Trojans should’ve fallen on the 13 line.
The Trojans finished 143rd in KenPom, which is 30 spots behind North Dakota State, which I thought belonged in the final 13-seed spot.
Beating San Diego State in a road game could’ve been the reason why Troy got the nod, but does that warrant ignoring the other numbers to boost the Trojans? I don’t think so.
Underseeded Teams
Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt, a five seed? Really? That was my biggest jaw dropping reaction while watching the selection show.
It almost feels like the committee was leaving the Dores as a five seed unless it beat Arkansas in the SEC title game, ignoring two dynamite wins over Tennessee and Florida to get there.
The Commodores tallied 17 Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, more than all the other five seeds. They just seem to be in a different class than the other teams on that seed line.
Plus, Vandy is 12th in KenPom and 13th in the NET, meaning the predictive metrics favored the Commodores and so did the resume metrics.
So, why is it a five seed? I just don’t get that one.
St. John's Red Storm
This is another team on the five line that has a case to be a four seed.
The Red Storm tallied 16 wins in the first two quadrants and have just one loss (Providence) in the Q3/Q4 range.
Not to mention, St. John’s just won the Big East Tournament. The conference tournament championship carried Purdue to a No. 2 seed, so clearly they matter. But it didn’t seem to matter for St. John’s.
If you compare Alabama — which sits on four line — against St. John’s, the decision is easy for which squad belonged as a five seed — and the committee picked the wrong one.
Idaho Vandals
I know, discussing 14 and 15 seeds isn’t the most exciting thing, but hear me out: Idaho got a raw deal.
The Vandals are not only a 15 seed, they have to play Houston. That’s not fun for any mid-major.
If you compare Idaho — which is 145th in KenPom — to Penn and Kennesaw State (both 14 seeds), I’m not sure how the committee decided to favor the latter two.
For one, Penn is probably without Ethan Roberts, and it was worse than Idaho with him. TJ Power is awesome — he scored 44 in the Ivy title game — but Roberts is terrific too.
Kennesaw State was the sixth seed in the CUSA Tournament. It's a solid team, no doubt, but Idaho had a better overall season, so I’m stunned the Vandals fell behind the Owls.
