The bracket has been unveiled, and the 2026 NCAA Tournament is upon us.
Our staff is back to break down their top futures before the madness gets underway.
So, dive in below for college basketball futures, including college basketball picks to make the Sweet 16, Final Four and a team primed to cut down the nets.
College Basketball Futures, Picks
Virginia to Make Elite Eight (+290)
By Joshua Nunn
Virginia’s sitting in a really clean spot in that Midwest bottom half, and I’m buying high on them to get to the Elite Eight at least.
This is a buttoned-up, veteran group that’s playing its best ball right now.
They’ve got shooters who can make shots against pretty much anybody—maybe Duke’s the one defense that really gives them trouble, but outside of that, they’ve got enough perimeter pop to keep things spaced. Defensively, though? That’s where the real edge is.
Their rim protection and shot blockers are going to create serious problems for just about every team they’re likely to see on that side of the bracket.
They’ve got length, and guys who can anchor the paint, and that’s going to frustrate teams that want to get to the rim or live in transition.
The draw sets them up nicely, Iowa State, Tennessee, Kentucky, SMU, whoever comes through that pod, they’re all going to have to deal with Virginia’s ability to control pace, protect the rim, and limit easy looks. It’s not flashy, but it’s disciplined, it’s connected, and it’s the kind of basketball that travels in March.
I just think they match up really well to advance deep here, and the number feels like value. So yeah, I’m looking to bet Virginia to the Elite Eight. Buy high on them right now.
Pick: Virginia to Make Elite Eight (+290)
USF to Make Sweet 16 (+1000)
If you simply go by the raw numbers, the favorites should all handle their business on Thursday and Friday.
But games aren’t played on spreadsheets, and some mid and low-majors have an ace up their sleeve. South Florida is one of those teams, and the Bulls’ calling card comes in the form of a relentless uptempo brand of basketball.
As they say, “styles make fights,” and USF can turn its first-round matchup against Louisville into a track meet. Their guard-heavy lineup pushes the pace at every turn, and all five starters attack the rim.
This is evidenced by their average 2-point shot distance, which is the third lowest in Division I. The Bulls’ dribble penetration is difficult to stop without fouling, which is why they lead the nation in points from the charity stripe (20.1 ppg).
When the Bulls aren’t attacking downhill, they’re firing off triples at a top 25 rate. This “Rim & 3” approach has served them well. Bryan Hodgson’s team pours in 87 points per game (6th) with all five starters averaging north of 11 points per game.
Wes Enis has emerged as the go-to scorer, posting eight games with 20 or more points since late January. This prolific offense propelled USF to a 19-3 mark in its last 22 games, with two of those losses coming in overtime.
Bart Torvik has pulled 10 March Madness comps for this year’s USF team, dating all the way back to the 2008 NCAA Tournament.
The 10 teams with statistical profiles similar to USF averaged 0.8 wins, with 2008 Western Kentucky (No. 12) and 2010 Washington (No. 11) both appearing in the Sweet 16 as double-digit seeds.
A run to the Sweet 16 will require at least one, if not two, significant upsets.
The Bulls open with Louisville and have been installed as a 5.5-point underdog. South Florida’s upset chances live and die with one name: Mikel Brown. Louisville’s point guard has been battling a back injury throughout the season and is considered day-to-day.
If Pat Kelsey’s patience with Brown’s injury pays off and he’s back to 100%, UL could score 100 points in this game and pull away from USF in the second half. But if Brown is hobbled or in street clothes, USF could close as a one-possession ‘dog.
A win on Thursday would likely set up a meeting with Michigan State. The Spartans' rugged frontcourt of Cooper and Kohler will steamroll over North Dakota State in the Round of 64, but the Bulls have a counterpunch in the form of 6-foot-10 Izaiyah Nelson.
Averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds, and three “stocks,” Nelson is the difference maker for Hodgson. If he stays out of foul trouble, patrols the lane and attacks the offensive glass (3.9 ORebs, 10th), Louisville and Michigan State will have their hands full.
Pick: USF to Make Sweet 16 (+1000)
Michigan to Win National Championship (+350)
By Ryan Minion
In one of the most impressive starts to a season in recent memory- dismantling four Quad-I opponents by an average win margin exceeding 30 points, Michigan has hit some bumps along the way but retains a number-one seed heading into the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
While some may be concerned about its loss to Purdue in the Big Ten title game on Sunday afternoon, I still have faith in a Dusty May- Wolverine bunch who still boasts elite size, athleticism, and experience.
The loss of 6 '2 Sophomore Guard LJ Cason to a season-ending ACL tear will undoubtedly be felt, especially on the defensive end of the floor, but Michigan still has the top defense in all of college basketball.
The Midwest region features some of the nation’s top teams, including the second-seeded Iowa State Cyclones and Ryan Odom’s Cavaliers, but the Wolverines will only have to face one of their aforementioned foes on their road to the Final Four.
I am holding a Michigan +1100 ticket on the backend of a parlay ticket from earlier in the season, but I definitely feel the Wolverines still have some slight futures market value at +350 to cut down the nets in 2026.
Pick: Michigan to Win National Championship (+350)
Purdue to Make Final Four (+450)
By Stuckey
Purdue made out like absolute bandits in this West region draw, and right now I'm locked in on them to the Final Four.
This team is peaking at the exact right time. They went through a lull earlier, but they flipped the switch and turned it on big time. We bet them to win the Big Ten Tournament for a reason: they figured things out.
The pieces are clicking, and they just absolutely destroyed what a lot of people think is the best defense in the country on a neutral floor. Ran them off the court, did whatever they wanted.
That's not luck; that's a team hitting its stride when it matters most. Preseason number one pedigree, tons of experience, this group's been there before.
Now, the draw? It's a gift. First round: Queens. Beautiful offense, lots of cuts, maybe they can shoot it and pull the bigs out, but they're getting zero stops. Purdue's going to score in bunches.
Then Miami or Missouri in the Round of 32? I'm not sweating either one against this Purdue team right now.
In the Sweet 16, Gonzaga without Braden Huff is not the same team they were. BYU without Richie Saunders, defense is Swiss cheese. Texas and NC State are flawed teams, high variance, but Purdue's got the edge in consistency and interior play.
Arizona's the monster at the end, sure, and may be the most complete team in the bracket. But if Purdue gets there in the Elite Eight, I'm not scared.
We just saw them handle an elite defense neutrally and win handily. The path has way more landmines for Arizona (Wisconsin's shooting variance, Arkansas's athleticism, and guard play if they're hot) than for Purdue. This draw sets them up to roll through to Phoenix.
Pick: Purdue to Make Final Four (+450)
to Make Sweet 16 (-115)
I’ve been riding Vanderbilt hard all year, had them beating Florida yesterday, and right now I’m locked in on them to the Sweet 16 in this South region. I think the number’s still good value, and I’m not backing off.
First off, McNeese has zero chance in my mind. It's scrappy, chaotic, Southland-style defense, pressure, turnovers, all that, but Vanderbilt is way too under control.
The Commodores don't turn it over, they’ve got multiple ball-handlers who can ISO and break presses, they live at the line where they’re elite, and they’ve got real power-conference talent and length that’s going to bother Tanner and whoever else McNeese throws at them.
Then in the Round of 32, they’ve got a great look at Nebraska. Nebraska allows one of the highest 3-point attempt rates in the country; Vandy can eat on that. Their shooters are live, and while Nebraska’s bigs are skilled and big, they’re not the type of athletic rim protectors or length that’s really punished Vanderbilt this year.
We saw the mismatches against Texas and Arkansas when things got away, but Nebraska doesn’t have that same disruptive frontcourt athleticism. Vandy’s guard play and spacing should cook that matchup.
Vandy gets to the Sweet 16 comfortably here.
Pick: Vanderbilt to Make Sweet 16 (-115)
