Merry Christmas to all. Here are my favorite five bets for the first day of the NCAA Tournament, in addition to a few quick hitters for Friday's slate.
If you haven't already, take a peek at my statistical breakdown of the field and my ranking of potential R1 upsets, especially if you're looking for more insight into each of the matchups involving the 13-15 seeds.
Read on for my NCAA Tournament picks and betting card for the first round of March Madness.
When this matchup first appeared on the bracket reveal show, I immediately tweeted "bad matchup for Thornton" because of TCU's aggressive ball-screen defense.
The Buckeyes rank in the 97th percentile in pick-and-roll ball handler efficiency (mostly Bruce Thornton and John Mobley). The Horned Frogs' defense ranks in the 90th percentile in defending those play types, per Synergy (and really makes it difficult to get into those actions).
Plus, Ohio State doesn't have an uber-efficient roll man, which could have posed problems for the Horned Frogs.
The Buckeyes will get some easy buckets with their cutting action, but TCU's defense is specifically designed to neutralize their strengths.
Meanwhile, on the other end of the floor, Jamie Dixon's bunch can have success working through the post, while cleaning up on the offensive glass and living at the free-throw line against a poor rebounding Buckeyes squad that also fouls too often, which could cause issues due to a lack of depth.
I also expect TCU to win the turnover battle, which should lead to a substantial shot volume edge for the No. 9 seed that boasts an elite shot volume profile (especially relative to Ohio State). I just hope they don't miss too many free throws as the much weaker free-throw shooting team in this matchup.
Ohio State has surged late in the season, but part of that has been driven by 3-point shooting luck. Over the past month of the season, the Buckeyes have run at over a +9% 3-point shooting delta, connecting on over 42% of their shots from downtown.
For reference, they shot at a 34.3% clip over their first 25 games of the season. I could certainly see the regression monster biting the Buckeyes on a neutral court.
Meanwhile, TCU has made just 31.1% of its 3-point attempts over that span. The Horned Frogs aren't a great shooting team, but they did shoot it at just under 34% over their first 25 games.
Additionally, TCU has one of the most impressive neutral-court resumes in the country, with a pair of non-conference wins over Florida and Wisconsin. The Horned Frogs have been a big-game team all season.
Keep in mind, they also beat Texas Tech, beat Iowa State, and should've beaten Kansas in Lawrence. Per Torvik, TCU ranks inside the top-20 with a top-15 defense in 13 games against top-50 teams.
Give me the team that should win the shot volume battle with the superior defense and the coach that has proven itself time and time again in these big spots this year. The matchup is fairly advantageous to boot.
Pick: TCU +2.5
This is just way too many points in what should be a complete grinder in the half-court between a pair of teams that rank 287th (Duke) and 319th (Siena) in Adjusted Tempo.
Plus, Duke won't be at full strength, as both Patrick Ngonba and Caleb Foster will miss the opener.
Duke certainly isn't the same caliber of juggernaut without those two, and the depth obviously takes a major hit.
As a result, head coach Jon Scheyer may pull his starters a bit earlier than usual with another game two days away, especially following a run of three games in three days at the ACC Tournament last weekend, when you could see some fatigue from the starters toward the end of the title game.
Plus, I do think Siena has a bit more bite than your usual 16 seed with a player like Gavin Doty. The Saints also love to live in the mid-range (top-50 in attempt rate and percentage), which is where the Duke defense funnels opponents.
Additionally, the rim defense has improved with increased minutes for 7-footer Riley Mulvey (Iowa transfer) following Antonio Chandler's eligibility issues. It also doesn't hurt that Brendan Coyle has seemingly found his outside shot again — he lost it for months despite shooting 40% from deep last season.
It won't be easy for Siena to find offense, and the Saints will likely give up some big runs to the Blue Devils, but Justice Shoats and Doty can make enough mid-range jumpers to keep this within 25, especially if Coyle can add a couple of 3s in a game that should have limited possessions.
Pick: Siena +29.5
On paper, NDSU profiles as a team that could pull off an upset nobody sees coming in the first round, thanks to a terrific shot volume profile and high-upside outside shooting.
The problem is the Bison haven't really played anybody all season, so it's hard to say if they can actually compete on the glass with the rebounding monsters of Sparty.
If they can find a way to compete on the glass, they can keep this close, especially since they do have a very good shot at winning the turnover battle, since Michigan State doesn't really turn teams over, while NDSU's aggressive, trapping defense could exploit some of the turnover woes we have seen from the Spartans at times this season.
Additionally (and maybe most importantly), NDSU does a tremendous job of limiting transition opportunities (11th percentile frequency allowed, per Synergy), which is mandatory against Jeremy Fears and company, who thrive when running but can get bogged down in the half-court.
There should be plenty of 3-point shots going up in this game based on how both defenses are structured. And in a vacuum, NDSU has the shooters capable of at least matching Michigan State in that department. NDSU can even go with a smaller lineup at times (and give up rebounding) to stretch the floor and bomb away against the Michigan State bigs.
I do worry about potential negative regression for North Dakota State, which has benefited from a great deal of 3-point shooting fortune over the past month on both ends of the floor, with a +8.4% 3-point shooting delta. Over that stretch, the Bison have made 37% of their triples (which isn't too far off their season-long average), but opponents have made just 28.6% of their attempts from deep on the second-highest volume nationally.
Maybe Michigan State has too much physicality, and maybe the Spartans hit 14 3s. If that's the case, I'm probably doomed here.
But I'm willing to take a shot on a number I think is inflated compared to my projection, especially since there are some schematic angles to like for this matchup.
Pick: North Dakota State +16.5
Hawaii plays a very strict drop coverage defense, which could lead to disastrous results against Darius Acuff.
However, I'm betting on the Warriors throwing some curveballs on defense that Arkansas won't be prepared for. Could we see some similar zone looks they used against Fullerton for most of the game? Plus, we've certainly seen Calipari teams look completely lost in the first round against various mid-major defenses.
For what it's worth, Calipari is just 2-8 ATS in the tourney as a 15-point-or-more favorite. He's also gone 4-9 ATS (30%) with a -4 average cover margin when his teams have a seven-or-more seed differential in the first round. He's the second-least profitable coach of all-time in that spot.
It's also a tricky spot for the Hogs, who head out West with travel (Hawaii is just coming from Las Vegas) for an early Thursday tip time following an exhausting run to an SEC title last week with a roster that really lacks depth (and could now also be down big man Nick Pringle, which would stress the depth even more and hurt defensively at the rim).
I wouldn't be surprised if Arkansas comes out a little flat and even trails at the half.
Lastly, there's potential for significant 3-point regression that could work in Hawaii's favor. Over the past month, Arkansas has benefited from a 10.2% 3-point shooting delta thanks to a ridiculous 44.5% clip from beyond the arc (and an even hotter 48.5% in the month of March).
Arkansas is an elite 3-point shooting team, but some of its poor shooters have been uncharacteristically hot of late. If I'm Hawaii, I'm showing some more zone looks on defense and helping off some of those poor shooters, hoping that regression hits in a new venue.
Conversely, over that same span, Hawaii has run at a -7.9% 3-point shooting delta. The Warriors have shot just 28.5% from deep over the past month, while opponents have connected on over 36% of their outside looks.
I could see Hawaii catching a sleepy, ill-prepared Arkansas team off guard early, but Arkansas' talent will likely eventually overwhelm the Warriors, especially in transition off turnovers (a major red flag for the Big West champs). That will probably lead to a massive run or two for Arkansas, which I'm willing to bet is more likely in the second half.
Therefore, I'm backing Hawaii in the first half for the reasons mentioned above.
Pick: Hawaii 1H +8.5
This has blowout written all over it, especially if TJ Power (illness) — who went off for 44 points in an upset win over Yale in the Ivy title — can't suit up, as it's already confirmed that leading scorer Ethan Roberts will not suit up.
Fran McCaffrey obviously has familiarity with Brad Underwood (and vice versa), but I just don't see how Penn gets any stops in this game against a historically good Illinois offense that ranks second nationally in overall Adjusted Efficiency.
If the Illini are making their 3s (which they take at the 12th-highest rate nationally), they will likely get to 100.
It's worth noting they are probably overdue for a nuclear performance from behind the arc after shooting just 32.6% since Feb. 1. However, even if those shots aren't falling, Illinois should get whatever it wants at the rim and dominate the offensive glass.
On the season, Illinois ranks third nationally in offensive rebounding rate, which spells trouble for a Penn defense that ranks 183rd in that department.
The inside-the-arc numbers for the Quakers are also extremely alarming — they rank 346th in 2-point shooting and 292nd in 2-point shooting allowed. In six games against top-100 opponents, Penn posted a whopping -18% 2P% delta.
The Quakers excel at forcing turnovers, but the Illini offense ranks in the top 10 nationally in turnover percentage. Penn also does an adequate job of taking care of the ball, but Illinois literally ranks dead last in the country in forcing turnovers, which really neuters that strength.
Illinois can really go back to its strict drop defense here in order to just take away the 3-ball, forcing Penn into countless inefficient mid-range jumpers (where the Quakers rank outside the top-300 in efficiency) in endless one-and-done possessions.
The Penn press won't work at all against Illinois, so maybe Fran just goes with a unique zone on defense for the entire game to induce Illinois to just bomb from distance, which it can do too much of at times.
However, that could get even uglier on the glass and lead to even more easy second-chance points against the horrid Penn rim defense.
This Illinois team is built to sandblast inferior teams, and I think the Illini win by 30-plus here with just reasonable 3-point splits. And if Power can't go, this could get even uglier in a hurry.
Pick: Illinois -25.5 (-108)
Friday Quick Hitters:
- Akron can keep up with Texas Tech in what profiles as a high-scoring affair with both offenses owning significant advantages. As long as the Zips don't get completely dominated from the 3-point line, they should be in this game until the end. I don't think the market has fully accounted for JT Toppin's injury, so I took the points with an Akron team that is well-coached and boasts high-major athleticism.
- Northern Iowa is a nightmare matchup for Saint John's. The Panthers allow the second-lowest transition rate in the country and pack it in on defense, which, in turn, limits opponents' chances at the rim and on the offensive glass. Those are three of the primary avenues the Johnnies look for scoring, so this could become an ultimate grinder. And if St. John's (which isn't a great outside shooting team) is way off from 3 (remember last year?), Northern Iowa will have a chance to pull off the upset with a veteran, connected group that is underrated metrically due to injuries early in the season. There's a chance the Johnnies can just overwhelm the Panthers with their athleticism and physicality, but I'm willing to take a chance on the pup.
- You can't score at the rim against Virginia, so I'm not sure how rim-reliant Wright State keeps up with the Hoos, who should erase the Raiders' usual advantage on the glass in the Horizon League.
- If you like half-court grinders, tune into Iowa-Clemson. I like the Hawkeyes for a couple of reasons. For starters, Clemson's ability to take the life out of the game (which can be a strength) won't bother Iowa one bit here. Iowa can also exploit Clemson's very poor pick-and-roll defense (20th percentile efficiency) and should also win the shot volume battle. In a battle of similar teams, I'll take my chances with the best player on the court in Bennett Stirtz and the better game-planning coach in Ben McCollum. Clemson could also really miss Carter Welling in this matchup, who was lost to a season-ending injury last week.
