The NCAA Tournament is full of unique matchups, contrasting schemes, and games played with limited time in between.
I wanted to take some time to talk about some of the unique stylistic matchups in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, some teams that might find tough sledding due to tough opponent matchups, quick turnarounds, and those that might be at a schematic disadvantage.
While this information alone is not enough to constitute a bet, these conditions are taken into account and will guide my decision-making.
So, read on for our NCAA Tournament Picks and stylistic factors to consider.
NCAA Tournament Picks: First Four
Lehigh vs Prairie View A&M
Starting in the First Four, Lehigh has been taking some steam in the market and has been bet up to -3.5.
I am not sure I agree with the move, and the line is now approaching a point where I may consider backing Prairie View A&M.
Lehigh doesn’t see much high-pressure, high-intensity defense in the Patriot League, and I feel the Mountain Hawks will struggle against the Panthers’ press.
PVAM runs a full-court or three-quarter-court press, throwing plenty of traps to force turnovers. The Panthers rank in the top 50 nationally in forced turnover rate — even more impressive when you consider their brutal non-conference schedule, where they forced 19 turnovers against North Texas, 14 against Missouri, 14 against Oklahoma State, and 14 against Texas A&M.
The system works. It’s also hard to simulate, so I’m not sure if Lehigh will be prepared.
Lehigh played West Virginia and Monmouth this season, two defenses with similarly havoc-centered schemes, and the Mountain Hawks couldn’t take care of the ball.
Advantage PVAM, and likely a play.
NCAA Tournament Picks: Round of 64
Duke vs Siena
I don’t know how Siena scores against Duke.
The Saints are overmatched in talent, but their ball-screen-centric offense is predicated on rim attacks or mid-range jumpers. But the length and athleticism of the Blue Devils in the paint will make it nearly impossible for Siena to secure paint touches.
The Saints don’t shoot many triples, with leading scorers Gavin Doty and Justice Shoats taking most of their shots near the rim. Siena doesn’t have a single guy who shoots better than 35% from deep — their most potent shooter, Brendan Coyle, shoots 29%.
We should see plenty of empty trips for Siena. Combine that with their plodding pace, and the Saints might barely break 50.
I’ll be looking to take Siena’s TT Under.
Wisconsin vs High Point
This is a brutal matchup for High Point.
The Panthers want to press, trap, and force turnovers. But you can’t do that against the Badgers, who have plenty of guards and rank third nationally in turnover rate.
If the Badgers beat the press, this could turn into a layup line on the back end.
The Badgers are playing faster this year than any Wisconsin team ever has, which should increase the possessions, and ultimately, their athleticism will take over.
Wisconsin scored 90 or more this season against Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois (twice). The Badgers could easily put up 100 against High Point.
I’ll be looking to bet the Badgers TT Over.
Saint Mary's vs Texas A&M
I’m fascinated by this matchup.
The Aggies want to press and trap for all 94 feet, while Saint Mary’s plays at one of the nation’s slowest tempos.
Randy Bennett has seen it all, so I’m interested to see how the Gaels break the press and attack the rim. SEC teams shredded A&M late in the season once opponents figured out how to break the press.
That said, I could see Bucky going full BuckyBall, at least for a half.
Surprisingly, A&M did not play in an MTE this season, so there are no examples of the Aggies playing on short notice. If they do advance, the quick turnaround against Houston could be tough.
The Aggies played on two days’ rest nine times this season, finishing just 3-6. A well-rested Texas A&M is dangerous, but a tired group off a quick turnaround might not be.
I’ll be looking to bet Houston against Texas A&M in the Round of 32 if it comes to that.
Virginia vs Wright State Styles
Wright State is going to struggle against Virginia’s defense.
The Cavs clog the paint and protect the rim about as well as any team in the country. Meanwhile, the Raiders don’t shoot much, preferring to get downhill to the rim through TJ Burch and Michael Cooper — they won’t be able to create off the dribble against Virginia, which has Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyeso waiting on the back end to swat shots (combined for 14 against Duke in the ACC Championship game).
I expect both teams to slow the pace, but Virginia should play a ball-control style in the second half to shorten the game and compensate for the short turnaround into the Round of 32.
I’ll be on Wright State’s TT Under.
