NCAA Tournament Player Prop Picks: San Diego State vs UConn & NC State vs Marquette

NCAA Tournament Player Prop Picks: San Diego State vs UConn & NC State vs Marquette article feature image

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael O’Connell.

I'm 19-7 (70%) and up +11.7 units on my NCAA Tournament player props picks through the first two rounds of March Madness. Here are the first two bets I've made for the Sweet 16.

NCAA Tournament Player Prop Picks

Time (ET)Player Prop
7:39 p.m.
7:09 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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San Diego State vs. UConn

Thursday, March 28
7:39 p.m. ET

Micah Parrish

Under 4.5 Rebounds (-130)

This isn’t a number Parrish normally clears. He’s stayed under this 55% of the time over the last 20 games. After factoring in a brutal matchup against UConn, it makes it even tougher for him to clear this number.

Not only is UConn a very good rebounding team, but it's also an excellent shooting team that ranks in the top five in the country in effective FG% while also playing at a slow pace. There will be fewer rebound chances for Parrish than usual, and it will be tougher for him to grab those potential rebounds

I'm projecting him closer to 3.6 with a 70% chance of staying under 4.5. Being able to cash this if he finishes with four exactly is massive because I have around a 19-20% chance that's how many boards he ends up with.

Pick: Micah Parrish Under 4.5 Rebounds (-130)

NC State vs. Marquette

Friday, March 29
7:09 p.m. ET

Michael O'Connell

Over 3.5 Assists (-115)

O’Connell has been a key player for the Wolfpacks’ magical seven-game win streak to get into the tournament and make it to the Sweet 16. He didn’t become a starter until the middle of the season and has seen his playing time increase quite a bit during this amazing run.

O'Connell should play around 35-36 minutes against Marquette, and it’s a plus matchup for him to rack up assists. The Golden Eagles play at one of the fastest paces in the country and send their opponents to the free-throw line at a lower rate, so NC State should see an increase in field goal attempts in this game, which is critical in terms of projecting assists. Marquette also allows an assist on 60% of field goals made, which is one of the highest rates in the country.

All of these factors lead us to project O’Connell closer to 4.5 assists and around a 65% chance of clearing 3.5.

Pick: Michael O'Connell Over 3.5 Assists (-115)

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Nick Sterling
May 17, 2024 UTC