Thursday and Friday’s Round of 64 action should be fun — it’s non-stop action all day.
Let’s look for some betting value in my NCAA Tournament Predictions and confidence rating picks.
NCAA Tournament Predictions: Confidence Rating Picks for Round of 64
Houston vs Idaho Pick
The Big Sky is 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 NCAA Tournament games. Teams in this conference often struggle against physical, strong defensive teams, as the league is filled with good offensive teams that are accustomed to free-flowing games with optional defense.
Houston is the definition of a physical, defense-first power-conference opponent, and that's likely a brutal matchup for the Vandals.
Houston ranks 352nd nationally in adjusted tempo and fifth in defensive efficiency. The Cougars will play this game in the half-court and put the clamps on.
For what it’s worth, the best defense Idaho played this season was Notre Dame, which posted a 13-18 record overall.
Houston’s Joseph Tugler has the length and athleticism to bother the Idaho offense.
Idaho shouldn’t generate many solid first-shot looks, and the Vandals don’t generate many second-chance buckets.
Houston is more than willing to blow out low-major squads, beating SIU Edwardsville by 38 in the first round last year and Longwood by 40 two years ago.
Pick: Idaho TT Under 55.5
Confidence Rating: B
Virginia vs Wright State Pick
The Virginia Cavaliers' shot-blocking tandem of Ugonna Onyenso and Johann Grunloh is fantastic.
Onyenso has blocked a ridiculous 21 shots across his past three games. He made life miserable for Cameron Boozer in the Cavs' close loss to Duke.
Virginia ranks fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed, and the Cavs don’t foul. Ryan Odom-led teams haven’t gotten enough credit for how good they are on the defensive end.
Wright State’s offense is very rim-oriented, but I don’t see the Raiders generating high-quality interior looks against Virginia. They’ll likely be living on a heavy diet of mid-range jumpers, and that’s not a formula for success.
While Wright State did play some decent squads in the non-con, including Cal, Miami (OH), and Butler, the Raiders still haven’t faced a top-85 defense this season. I don’t think they’re ready for this test.
I suspect Wright State will look to work the ball around and turn this game into a low-possession battle for as long as it can. But I don’t think the Raiders will be very efficient on offense.
Pick: Wright State TT Under 63.5
Confidence Rating: A
Kansas vs Cal Baptist Pick
The Cal Baptist Lancers run everything through Dominique Daniels. He’s a great story, and I’ve rooted for him and this team throughout the season.
But Daniels and the Lancers drew a brutal matchup in the Round of 64.
Daniels is listed at 5-foot-10, but Kansas doesn’t have a single rotation player under 6-foot-3. Melvin Council is an excellent, quick defender who should move his feet and keep Daniels in front of him.
Daniels shot 2-for-12 inside the arc against Utah Valley in the WAC Championship game, with the Wolverines’ lengthier backcourt bothering him. Flory Bidunga will prove a whole different test, as he’ll swat shots around the rim all night long — he’s a big reason why the Jayhawks rank fourth nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed.
Kansas should get out in transition and attack the rim against a Cal Baptist team lacking rim protectors.
While this isn’t Bill Self’s best team, the Jayhawks played a brutal schedule and fared OK. They have all sorts of mismatches to exploit in this game.
Pick: Cal Baptist TT Under 61.5
Confidence Rating: B
