Day two of the NCAA Tournament rolls on with teams like St. John's, Purdue, Florida, Kansas and UConn in action on Friday evening.
Our staff has three best bets to get you set for the evening of hoops.
Read for NCAA Tournament predictions, including March Madness best bets for Friday night (March 20).
NCAA Tournament Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:50 p.m. | |
  | 7:35 p.m. | |
  | 9:25 p.m. | |
  | 10:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Iowa vs. Clemson
By Stuckey
There's a real case to be made for taking Iowa here, and it starts with Clemson's pick-and-roll issues. The Tigers sit in the 20th percentile defending pick-and-roll ball-handlers, even though they rank in the 82nd percentile in frequency.
That's a pretty ugly matchup for them against someone like Bennett Stirtz, who lives in pick-and-roll looks and should be able to exploit that weakness.
This is also a half-court, grind-it-out type of game — exactly the kind of pace Iowa prefers.
Clemson's usual edge is sucking the life out of games, limiting transition and making everything slow and physical. The thing is, that plays right into Iowa's comfort zone.
In a slog, I trust Iowa head coach Ben McCollum's experience, and I trust Stirtz. He's the best player on the floor and the guy you want taking clutch shots or making the tough plays late in the possession.
Injury news matters here, too. Clemson lost big man Carter Welling — its second-leading scorer — to a torn ACL in the ACC Tournament last week.
Without him, Clemson's interior athleticism takes a hit, and it's less likely to overwhelm Iowa up front, which is where the Hawkeyes don't have much athleticism. Now, they won't be completely outmanned.
The only real wrinkle that gives me pause is Clemson's press. Instead of utilizing the press to speed teams up, the Tigers use it to slow teams down. That's a big reason why they sit in the 90th percentile in forcing shots in the last four seconds of the shot clock.
Iowa has had issues with the press this year. It's not something it faces a ton in the Big Ten, but it struggled against Penn State and Maryland. Plus, in 20 press possessions against Michigan, it managed just 0.55 points per possession. For context, the worst team in the nation against the press, Sacramento State, still scored 0.69 PPP.
All that said, I'm going with Iowa, which is also due for a bit of positive 3-point regression. Ultimately, I'm willing to back Stirtz and McCollum to find a way to win this one in the half-court.
Pick: Iowa -1.5
Queens vs. Purdue
Oscar Cluff has looked reborn in the past week. His season average on this combo is a flat 18, but in the Big Ten Tournament, his average was 26.8.
Despite some foul trouble in all four games (13 fouls in total), he still logged 29.5 minutes per game for Matt Painter's bunch.
Painter knows what the analytics community knows: If Cluff is playing and playing well this is a special team. Purdue has the highest-rated five-man lineup in the NCAA Tournament with Cluff in the mix, and two of the top four 3-man lineups, per Evan Miya.
The comparison that had me racing to the window here was Villanova's Duke Brennan. When Queens played Nova earlier this season, he scored 17 points and grabbed 20 rebounds.
If Queens can score and keep this from getting out of hand early, Cluff will play 25 minutes and go for 15 and 10.
Pick: Oscar Cluff Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds
Prairie View A&M vs. Florida
By Evan Abrams
Florida has been one of the hottest teams in the nation, losing just three games after the calendar flipped to 2026.
But that doesn't mean this spread will be an easy cover for the Gators.
In fact, I have a system — "Defensive Teams (V4)" — that says the Panthers will cover the nearly 36-point number.
This system holds a strong 11% return on investment (ROI) since its inception, and even though it's a small sample size of three games, it holds a 27% ROI this season alone.
In college basketball, teams built around defense often remain undervalued when facing steep spreads, particularly when they keep opponents under 60 points and rarely see their games go over the total.
Prairie View A&M games have gone under the total eight straight times, meaning the Panthers fit this description.
These teams thrive on effort, structure and pace control, making them tough to blow out even against elite offenses.
Short rest (they just played in the First Four) keeps defensive intensity sharp, as rhythm and communication are maintained between games.
When oddsmakers extend the line beyond 10 points, they often overestimate the scoring gap while underestimating the ability of defensive teams to grind down possessions and neutralize talent advantages.
This system identifies those disciplined underdogs that turn projected mismatches into closer, slower games where their defensive identity becomes the great equalizer.
Pick: Prairie View A&M +35.5
Missouri vs. Miami
This is a really interesting clash between two very similar teams. Both of these squads look best when bullying their opponent, but they can’t bully each other, right?
A big swing factor in this game is foul trouble. Malik Reneau/Ernest Udeh Jr. and Mark Mitchell/Shawn Phillips Jr. is such a dead even push that if one of those guys has to miss a lot of action due to the whistle, it could completely reshape the game.
Miami has been more consistent this season, it has the best guard on the floor in Tre Donaldson, and, in my opinion, the better coach already in the young Jai Lucas.
However, I can’t get myself to go against this Mizzou team. I still think Mitchell is the best overall player on the floor, and he’s been pretty unstoppable no matter the opponent.
Plus, the Tigers have more legit shooting threats, and those looks will be open for both teams.
Miami was great at taking care of business against lesser competition this season. Mizzou had some head scratchers, but it has a higher ceiling.
That’s what I’m chasing here in March.
Pick: Missouri ML +110
