Over the past few days, college basketball fans have been given a treat. UNC rallied to stun Duke with a game-winning 3-pointer, Sparty beat Illinois in overtime, and Kentucky came back to knock off Tennessee for the second time this season. In the Big 12, Houston landed a Quad 1 win at BYU while No. 1 Arizona became the latest victim of "Phog Magic," seeing its undefeated season come to an end in Lawrence.
Many of those teams are fighting for conference championships and trying to lock in top seeds on Selection Sunday. Others are fighting just to hear their names called on Selection Sunday at all.
And that's where the madness starts for teams on the bubble, and that's where this first edition of my NCAAB Bubble Watch comes into play. So, read on for my college basketball picks for three key bubble games on Wednesday, February 11.
NCAAB Bubble Picks
USC (+7.5) @ Ohio State, 6:30 p.m. ET
Trojans' Projected Seed: 10
While some bracket projections have Ohio State in the field (projected by Bracket Matrix to be on the 11 line), there's plenty of work to be done. The Buckeyes are led by an offense that ranks 26th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they come in at No. 39 in the NCAA's NET Rankings.
While the Buckeyes have already amassed 15 wins this season, they're 0-7 in Quad 1 games and have missed a few opportunities for a marquee victory.
In December, as part of the CBS Sports Classic, Ohio State rallied from a double-digit second-half deficit against UNC to take the lead in the final seconds. However, the Tar Heels hung on for a 71-70 victory.
At home, the Buckeyes lost to Nebraska by three points and Illinois by eight points. They also lost both regular-season meetings to Michigan, most recently 83-62 on Sunday.
While the Buckeyes can't get a Quad 1 victory against USC, they can get a Quad 2 victory and knock off a Trojans team projected a seed line ahead of them.
USC is 1-4 in Quad 1 games and will have the opportunity for a second victory with a win in Columbus. If it happens, it may be a close game, as it seems that's all that the Trojans play. Eight of USC's last nine have been decided by six points or less, and they've been on the right side of the last three, defeating Rutgers, Indiana and Penn State.
Five-star freshman Alijah Arenas may already be figuring things out six games into his college career. He's scored 53 points in his last two outings, going 8-for-17 against Penn State. He made the game-winning basket in Happy Valley on a difficult attempt with 0.7 seconds left to go.
He's had more opportunities with senior guard Chad Baker-Mazara out of the lineup with a knee injury. The Auburn transfer is questionable for Wednesday's game. Baker-Mazara is averaging 18.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and three assists per game this season, so his return will be key.
The good news is USC is 10th in block rate, which could be key in limiting an Ohio State offense that's 18th in 2-point field percentage.
Additionally, if USC has another game within two possessions, it'll earn another cover. USC has been the better team against the spread over its last 10 games (6-4) and it's 12-11 this season overall. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 5-5 ATS over its last 10 games and 10-13 overall this season.
Pick: USC +7.5
Georgia vs. Florida (Over 165.5), 7 p.m. ET
Bulldogs' Projected Seed: 9
Georgia (the team on the bubble in this spot) had gotten off to a 13-1 start this season before suffering its first conference loss to Florida, 92-77, in Gainesville.
The Bulldogs have been able to tread water in conference play and currently sit in 10th place in the SEC. They snapped a three-game losing streak with a win at LSU last Saturday.
Georgia is 3-4 in Quad 1 games and 5-1 in Quad 2 games this season. It still has opportunities for quality wins with Kentucky, Texas, Vanderbilt and South Carolina still on deck.
First, though, it gets an opportunity to avenge its loss to the rival Gators.
If the Bulldogs spring the upset, it'll likely require a lot of points. They average 91.9 points per game with four double-digit scorers, led by guard Jeremiah Wilkinson's 17.1 points per game.
Georgia ranks eighth in both adjusted tempo and shortest offensive possession length. It's scored 80 points in 17 of 23 games this season.
Meanwhile, Florida will head to Athens playing well offensively, as well, as the defending national champions have scored 85 points in seven of their last 10 games.
The over has hit in just three of those games, but several of the totals have been in the 170 range. That includes the first meeting against Georgia that closed at 172.5 and finished with 169 points.
However, if the rematch has 169 points, Wednesday's game would go over 165.5.
Additionally, the over is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two programs.
Pick: Over 165.5
Texas A&M (-6.5) vs. Missouri, 9 p.m. ET
Aggies' Projected Seed: 9
Like the first game in this article (USC vs. Ohio State), this is also an all-bubble matchup, with Texas A&M projected on the nine line and Missouri currently projected as out at Bracket Matrix.
Let's start with the Aggies. It was a bit of a surprise when Buzz Williams left College Station after six seasons. However, first-year coach Bucky McMillan has the Aggies in position to make the NCAA Tournament once again.
Under McMillan, the Aggies are playing at a faster pace, ranking 26th in adjusted tempo and 11th in shortest offensive possession length, compared to 215th and 102nd, respectively, in each category last season.
This season's bunch shoots the ball much better, up at least six percent in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and free-throw percentage compared to last season. The Aggies average 91 points per game, with six players averaging in double digits.
However, this season's team isn't as strong on the glass and has slipped from 10th to 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Texas A&M is a game back of Florida for first place in the SEC. This week sets up well with the opportunity for a Quad 2 victory against Missouri and a Quad 1 victory at Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Aggies may be able to play themselves safely into the NCAA Tournament field, but first, they'll look to take care of Missouri.
While some outlets have Missouri in the NCAA Tournament, it has a ton of work to do to secure a bid. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Missouri among his "First Four Out."
Like Texas A&M, there are opportunities abound for Missouri, with games against Texas A&M, Texas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Arkansas to come. However, the Tigers may be favored in just one of those games.
Missouri will be a road underdog on Wednesday, and its perimeter defense could pose problems. It ranks 275th in 3-point percentage defense and Texas A&M shoots 37% from deep.
Offensively, Missouri ranks 263rd in turnover percentage, while Texas A&M ranks 60th in turnover percentage defensively. Missouri also shoots just 67% from the free-throw line, and those missed freebies add up when trying to secure a cover.
Texas A&M's 15-8 ATS record nearly matches its outright record. Meanwhile, Missouri has covered just nine of 23 games this season.
Texas A&M has won eight of the last 10 meetings between these two and has covered in six of them, with four victories of seven points or more.
With its advantages in this game, I'll back the Aggies at home.
Pick: Texas A&M -6.5
