In the most recent edition of our bubble watch, I backed USC as it took on Ohio State in Columbus. While the Trojans secured a cover, the Buckeyes earned the coveted victory and have another big opportunity on Wednesday in Iowa City.
But before we get to Ohio State-Iowa, let's look at a few other SEC Bubble Teams in our NCAAB Bubble Watch picks.
NCAAB Bubble Picks
Florida (-5.5) @ Texas, 8 p.m. ET
Longhorns' Projected Seed: 10
Texas challenged itself in non-conference play with games against Duke, UConn, and Virginia. It didn't win any of those games and also dropped one to Arizona State, which doesn't help matters.
Then, it started 2-4 in SEC play to get to 11-8 overall.
The Longhorns have been fighting an uphill battle to make the NCAA Tournament for much of the season.
However, they have won six of their past eight games to get to 17-10. While they did fall 91-80 at Georgia on Saturday, they have four more opportunities (Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma) to boost their resume as they close the regular season.
The first one is arguably the biggest swing game, as they host the Gators on Wednesday.
Florida lost four non-conference games by four points or less, three of which were to Arizona, Duke, and UConn. That may have caused the Gators to fall under the radar a bit, but they may be the hottest team in the country at the moment.
Since a 5-4 start, the Gators have won 16 of their past 18 games and currently sit atop the SEC.
While last year's national championship team was led by the sweet shooting of Walter Clayton Jr and Will Richard, among others, this year's group is shooting just 30% from 3.
However, they have bludgeoned opponents inside with Rueben Chinyelu, Alex Condon, and Thomas Haugh. The Gators rank in the top three nationally in both offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding rate. They also rank 24th in 2-point shooting and sixth in 2-point shooting allowed.
The Gators rank 15th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they will not have the best offense in this matchup.
Texas ranks sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in SEC play. Seniors Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope are each averaging 13 points per game. However, it is Xavier transfer Dailyn Swain leading the way, averaging 17.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.
While these two offenses are similar, Texas ranks 118th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 10th in SEC play. The Gators will also have a big edge on the glass.
A couple of stops and extra possessions from offensive rebounds could give the Gators the separation they need to secure a road cover.
Pick: Florida -6
Texas A&M @ Arkansas (Over 170.5), 9 p.m. ET
Aggies' Projected Seed: 10
Texas A&M was in a better position to make the NCAA Tournament a few weeks ago after it got off to a 17-4 start.
That was followed by a four-game losing streak, which included a three-point loss to Alabama and a one-point loss to Missouri. Still, they rebounded with wins over Ole Miss and Oklahoma.
Major opportunities await to secure their bid, with games against Arkansas, Texas, and Kentucky on deck.
An upset in Fayetteville will require the Aggies to slow the Razorbacks down, but that will be a difficult task.
Arkansas has scored 80 points in 11 of 14 SEC games. Darius Acuff Jr. may be the favorite for SEC Player of the Year as he is leading the SEC in scoring (22.2 PPG) and assists (6.2 APG).
While Acuff is playing himself into lottery status, he is not alone.
Fellow blue-chip recruit Meleek Thomas is second on the team in scoring at 15.3 points per game and has scored 20 points in two of his last four games.
Trevon Brazile and Billy Richmond are additional double-digit scorers, while Brazile is also the team's leading rebounder. Richmond has scored 20 points in each of his last three games- and may offer some value on his points line tonight.
Arkansas ranks fourth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and first in conference play. The white-hot offense has the Razorbacks at 10-4 in the SEC and tied for second place.
However, Texas A&M should be able to put some points on the board as well. Arkansas ranks 231st nationally in turnover rate, defensive rebounding rate, and 2-point shooting allowed.
The latter categories may lead to a big game for forward Rashaun Agee. The senior is averaging 14 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. He has 11 double-doubles on the year and has been a point or rebound away from several others.
Arkansas averages 90 points per game, while Texas A&M averages 89, and a typical game from both will put this game over 170 points.
There should be plenty of possessions as both teams rank in the top 40 in adjusted tempo.
The over is 7-3 in the past 10 head-to-head meetings, and while this total is higher than previous meetings under different coaching staffs, I expect the trend to continue.
Pick: Over 170.5
Ohio State (+7.5) @ Iowa, 9 p.m. ET
Buckeyes' Projected Seed: First Four Out
Despite the win over USC and the thumping of Wisconsin last week, many bracket projections have Ohio State on the wrong side of the bubble.
While they're still looking for a coveted Quad 1 win, the Buckeyes rank 37th in the NET, ahead of both Texas and Texas A&M.
The good news is that the Big Ten schedule provides plenty of opportunities.
Wednesday's game will be OSU's 10th Quad 1 game. It may get its first Quad 1 victory if Bruce Thornton continues his pace.
He is one of just two Division-I players in the last 25 years to have 25 points and two or fewer turnovers in three straight games against ranked opponents, and I am willing to guess that you have heard of the other one — Stephen Curry. The senior is averaging 20.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.9 assists and is on pace to become Ohio State's all-time leading scorer.
Thornton leads an Ohio State offense that ranks 25th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, but it would certainly help the Buckeyes if he got more help than he did on Sunday. Against Michigan State, Christoph Tilly was the only other Buckeye in double digits (10) as Thornton scored 32 of the team's 60 points.
Wednesday's matchup is more promising as Iowa ranks 263rd nationally in 2-point shooting allowed. Getting back Devin Royal would also help, as he is listed as questionable with an illness.
Iowa also has a high-level guard in Bennett Stirtz. The Drake transfer is averaging 20.6 points and 4.5 assists on 50/39/84 shooting splits. That is even more impressive when you factor in Iowa's pace — The Hawkeyes rank 350th nationally in adjusted tempo.
At times, that prevents Iowa from creating a ton of separation as four of its past six victories have been by six points or less. It did knock off Nebraska at home last week, which has the Hawkeyes sitting pretty comfortably as a projected eight seed. However, that is their only win in the past four games.
Ohio State has had the edge recently, winning four of the past seven meetings outright and covering in five.
Though back in Iowa City, Ohio State now catches an Iowa team that has covered in just three of its past nine games, while the Buckeyes have covered in three straight games.
KenPom projects Iowa by four points, giving us some value on the Buckeyes tonight.
Pick: Ohio State +7.5
