Nevada vs Dayton Odds, Pick: Bet This Short Favorite

It's time to take a look at the Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Dayton Flyers odds and make a pick for Thursday's March Madness game.

Based on KenPom's "thrill score" for the first 16 games of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, only one game grades out as more enticing than a mid-major matchup between Dayton and Nevada in Salt Lake City.

The Wolf Pack have mostly the same roster as last season's squad that lost in the First Four to Arizona State by 25 points. They were safely in the field this year, even though they ended up on the 10 line.

Like Nevada, Dayton stumbled in its conference tournament opener with a 65-57 quarterfinal loss to Duquesne. The Flyers are in their first NCAA Tournament since 2017, although they were headed toward a top two seed in 2020 before the tournament was canceled.

One of the biggest stories and narratives of the last handful of NCAA Tournaments has been the relative struggles of the Mountain West. Some have hypothesized that the league has so many teams who benefit from home court at elevation that it inflates their metrics, and they don't play nearly as well at sea level.

If that's the case, Nevada got a huge break from the selection committee because this game will be played at elevation in Salt Lake City, and the Wolf Pack are much more equipped and experienced to handle that than the Flyers.

Nevada runs most of its offense through point guard Kenan Blackshear, and the lack of ball pressure and perimeter defense from the Flyers should enable the Wolf Pack to efficiently run their stuff offensively.

The Flyers' ball screen coverage centers around DaRon Holmes II cleaning up potential issues caused by the Dayton backcourt defensively.

The Wolf Pack put extreme pressure on opposing forwards because of their ability to attack the paint and the rim. Nevada has a quite balanced offensive statistical profile because it has multiple shooters and slashers who make 3s but also get to the free-throw line.

Nevada lost its MWC tournament opener to Colorado State, but the Wolf Pack rank 17th in Bart Torvik efficiency metrics since Feb. 1. They were playing as well as any team in the MWC prior to that loss.

One reason to believe in Nevada in the NCAA Tournament is the Wolf Pack's ability to win away from home. Nevada won at Washington, Utah State, Colorado State and Boise State this season.

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The biggest concern for Dayton in this matchup is the Flyers' lack of depth playing at elevation. The Flyers essentially run a seven-man rotation and rank 345th nationally in bench minutes.

They also haven't played a single game at elevation this season.

When you dive into the matchup, the Flyers will need NBA talent and star rim protector Holmes to stay out of foul trouble to win this game.

Holmes is generally good at staying out of foul trouble, but Nevada has an extremely high fouls drawn rate and gets to the rim and the line as much as any team int he country.

Dayton had a really poor finish to the season from an efficiency perspective, as well. The Flyers defensive numbers really nosedived. Since Feb. 1, Dayton is 7-4 straight up with the 156th-ranked defense, per Bart Torvik.

They've been unable to force turnovers or prevent shot making at the rim or 3-point line against Atlantic 10 offenses.

The Flyers' inability to generate turnovers defensively or generate offensive rebounds makes them quite unlikely to win the shot volume battle. The way around that for Dayton is to shoot over the Nevada pack-line defensive principles.

With that being said, teams reliant on perimeter shotmaking to overcome a negative shot volume differential are generally good to bet against in March.

The matchup hinges on three key areas: Dayton's ability to handle altitude, Holmes staying out of foul trouble and Dayton's perimeter shot making over the Nevada defense.

Overall, there's more downside risk for Dayton given the emerging defensive holes in its statistical profile.

Nevada is more comfortable at altitude and is undervalued to provide a rare MWC first-round tournament win.

I'd back the Wolf Pack at -2 or better.

Pick: Nevada -2 or Better