The New Mexico Lobos take on the Boise State Broncos in Boise, Idaho. Tip-off is set for 11 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Boise State is favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -210. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here are my New Mexico vs. Boise State predictions and college basketball picks for December 30, 2025.
New Mexico vs Boise State Prediction
My Pick: Boise State -5 (Play to -6)
My New Mexico vs Boise State best bet is on the Broncos to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
New Mexico vs. Boise State Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
- New Mexico vs Boise State spread: Boise State -5
- New Mexico vs Boise State over/under: 146.5 points
- New Mexico vs Boise State moneyline: New Mexico +175, Boise State -210
New Mexico vs Boise State College Basketball Betting Preview
New Mexico Basketball
New Mexico made an absolute gem of a hire with Eric Olen, and it's already paying off.
The Lobos head into league play with a 10-2 record. The two losses came to New Mexico State on the road and at a neutral site to Nebraska. There's nothing wrong with those losses.
Let's keep an eye on New Mexico's potential injuries. In their last game against San Jose State, the Lobos played without Tomislav Buljan and Chris Howell. Buljan is the best rebounder on the roster, and Howell is a rugged defender.
Olen brought the same style that led UC San Diego to 31 wins last season to New Mexico. That style includes heavy shooting volume (45% of New Mexico's shots are 3s), and it connects on just 32% of them.
Defensively, the Lobos will look to pressure and force turnovers (20% turnover rate). They rank 57th in defensive efficiency, which is their strength.
New Mexico runs its offense through a trio of guards (Deyton Albury, Uriah Tenette, Jake Hall). Hall leads New Mexico with 14.5 points per game and connects on 40% of his 3s. Albury is the driver of the bunch, using his speed to shoot 48% from the field.
I'd call Tenette the X-factor; he's a blur going down the court but a streaky overall scorer.
Overall, New Mexico is a tough offense to buy into. Being tethered to shooting a bunch of 3s limits the overall effectiveness of the Lobos' offense.
If the Lobos tried to establish the paint more, they could take advantage of their 57% from inside the arc. Instead, it becomes a bit too reliant on shooting when the team lacks greatness in that department.
Boise State Basketball
Although it felt like Boise State's season ended before it truly began with a loss to Hawaii Pacific — a Division II school on opening night — it's proven that was just an outlier.
The Broncos hold four top-100 wins, while registering a pair of Quad 1 wins (at Butler, vs Saint Mary's). That being said, Boise State is plenty capable of handling good teams like New Mexico.
Boise State has a much different approach than New Mexico. All Leon Rice teams play a slow tempo, and this team follows that trend (251st in adjusted tempo).
The Broncos pride themselves on defense, ranking 30th in defensive efficiency. However, it just had one of its worst defensive showings of the season at Nevada, allowing 81 points and 1.30 PPP.
Positional length is a real advantage for the Broncos over New Mexico — four of the five starters are 6-foot-7 or taller, with Drew Fielder patrolling the paint at 6-foot-11. Throwing RJ Keene II — one of the better defenders in the Mountain West — on Hall could be a huge boost for Boise State.
Scoring is a potential concern for Boise State, as it sits 90th in offensive efficiency. The Broncos excel at getting to the foul line, ranking 42nd in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric. They also shoot it well (37% from deep), which is better than the 31% from last season.
I'm a bit surprised Boise State isn't better at scoring inside, as it shoots just 47% on 2s.
You can really point to burly forward Javan Buchanan and point guard Dylan Andrews as the main culprits for the 2-point struggles. Buchanan takes some really difficult shots and shoots 37% from the field. The same applies to Andrews, who shoots only 32% from the field.
That pair has to improve. It's not a talent issue for Buchanan or Andrews — both are proven Division players. Instead, taking bad shots is the problem.
New Mexico vs. Boise State Betting Analysis
I'm riding with the Broncos here. This is a good spot to get back on the Boise State train, following a tough road loss to Nevada. Playing in Reno is always tough, so I don't fault Boise State much.
To me, this game will come down to turnovers and pace. It'll be a tough game for Boise State if New Mexico can force turnovers and get out in transition.
However, if the Broncos keep this game in the half-court and run the offense through Fielder, an ultra-effective interior scorer, that'll be the ideal winning formula.
My Pick: Boise State -5 (Play to -6)
