The New Mexico State Aggies take on the FIU Panthers in Miami, FL. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
FIU is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -110. The total is set at 153.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico State vs. FIU prediction and college basketball picks for January 2, 2026.
New Mexico State vs FIU Prediction
My Pick: FIU ML -110
My New Mexico State vs FIU best bet is on the Panthers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
New Mexico State vs. FIU Odds
| N. Mexico St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
- New Mexico State vs FIU spread: FIU -1
- New Mexico State vs FIU over/under: 153.5 points
- New Mexico State vs FIU moneyline: New Mexico State -110, FIU -110
New Mexico State vs FIU College Basketball Betting Preview
New Mexico State Basketball
New Mexico State is trending in the right direction under Jason Hooten. In Hooten’s third season, the Aggies are 8-3 with a 1-0 record in C-USA play. However, this is the first road trip of New Mexico State's league season.
They rank 146th in offensive efficiency per KenPom — the best mark of the Hooten era by far, but it's still not great.
What drags down the Aggies' offense is inefficient field goal shooting, connecting on 50.3% of 2s (218th nationally) and 30.1% from deep (254th nationally).
New Mexico State atones for the poor field goal shooting with a strong effort on the glass, grabbing offensive boards at a 34% rate.
The offense goes as Jemel Jones does. He leads the Aggies with 16.5 points per game, and he's one of two New Mexico State players who average double-digits (big man Julius Mims is the other).
Jones is an electric shot-creator, but he can be a bit of a ball-stopper. Typically, he's hunting a shot, often from the mid-range.
Hooten will need some pivotal bench scoring from Elijah Elliott and Jayland Randall. In the win over Sam Houston, Elliott scored 18 and Randall scored 16, en route to New Mexico State scoring 1.17 PPP. It'll have to be more than just Jones serving as a scoring option.
Defense is where New Mexico State will have to dominate to win this road game. The Aggies rank 117th in defensive efficiency while holding teams to 46% shooting from 2-point range (44th nationally) and 30.8% from 3 (70th nationally).
So, why is a team that holds teams to such poor field goal numbers outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency? Fouling. The Aggies rank 344th nationally in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric.
FIU Basketball
FIU came very close to stunning Liberty last week in Tampa, but it lost in overtime. The Panthers are 7-5 with just one win over a top-100 opponent, so this would serve as their best win.
The Panthers rank 177th in offensive efficiency and 200th in defensive efficiency, so neither side is a huge strength.
However, I think their offense is more talented than that number says.
Leading scorer Corey Stephenson has come into his own this season in a more offense-friendly system than when he played for Cal State Bakersfield. The 6-foot-6, 220-pound wing leads the Panthers with 18 points per game, while shooting 50% from the field and 46% from deep.
Jeremy Ballard also has three other proven scorers to rely on: Guards Julian Mackey, Zawdie Jackson and Brit Harris.
Jackson is a former Aggie and could have some added motivation in this one. I'd love to see him be more aggressive. He made big plays against Liberty, but he takes just seven shots per game.
Pace will be a really big factor in this one. FIU will look to push the pace, ranking 23rd in adjusted tempo. It can get out quickly by pressuring, which leads to a 19% turnover rate.
However, the pressure can lead to some easier looks at the hoop, as opponents shoot 54% from inside the arc (273rd nationally).
The key for FIU? Controlling the defense glass. Size isn't the problem, as FIU starts three players between 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-10. However, the Panthers rank 359th in defensive rebounding rate.
FIU needs to emphasize holding New Mexico State to just one shot.
New Mexico State vs. FIU Betting Analysis
I'm looking to back the Panthers at home. I think they're due for some brighter days. With all these offensive weapons, it feels like a matter of time until everything begins to click.
Plus, freshman big man Eric Dibami is coming on. He scored 10+ points in five of six games, with six or more rebounds in the same number of games.
New Mexico State is a bit of a clunky offensive fit. If an offensive rebound doesn't come along, the Aggies could be in trouble.
I expect them to maintain the glass pretty well, but I don't know if it'll make up for the lack of made shots.
My Pick: FIU ML -110
