College Basketball Odds, Pick for UNC vs Florida State

Whether it be at home or on the road, North Carolina has been a covering machine in ACC play thus far this season.

The Tar Heels have also yet to lose a conference game, which will be put to the test on Saturday when they head south to Tallahassee.

Florida State is also hot, as it's winners of six of its last seven games and is sitting right behind UNC in second place in the conference.

This will be a rematch of a December 2 battle in Chapel Hill, a game in which FSU grabbed an early lead before a second half charge propelled the Heels to victory.

Will UNC cover a fifth consecutive ACC road game, or can the Seminoles put an end to that streak?

The biggest difference between this year's Carolina team compared to last season? The commitment to the defensive end of the floor.

UNC currently checks in at fourth nationally in KenPom's Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rankings, which is night and day from where it was a year ago.

There are no liabilities on that end, and every rotation player Hubert Davis trots out can get in passing lanes and stay in front of his respective man.

The offense hasn't been shabby either.

RJ Davis is playing as well as any guard in the entire country, and Armando Bacot remains incredibly reliable on the interior.

Newcomers Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan have also provided a big lift and can each score it in a variety of ways.

In the first matchup against the Noles, the Tar Heels only shot 5-of-22 from 3, but they got to the foul line 31 times and cashed in on 25 of those attempts.

Using the charity stripe to their advantage will once again be key on Saturday against a FSU defense that's shown improvement.

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When Florida State dropped its sixth game of the year to Lipscomb on December 30, there were murmurs that maybe it was time for Leonard Hamilton to call it a career.

Those murmurs have been put to bed over the last three weeks. The Seminoles have rattled off wins over teams in the upper echelon of the ACC, including Miami, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.

The young pieces are starting to mature, and as a result, FSU has been much more consistent on both sides of the floor.

Jamir Watkins had a big day against the Tar Heels back in December, going for 17 points and eight rebounds on 50% shooting from the field.

The Noles were also without Primo Spears in that game, and Spears gives Hamilton's team a totally different dimension offensively.

Keeping Bacot and the rest of the Carolina bigs off the offensive glass will be another key to this one, as FSU allowed 11 offensive boards in the first tilt.

I've been burned fading the Tar Heels a couple of times in recent weeks, but I'm not shying away from going back to the well.

The Tucker Center should be rocking Saturday afternoon, and FSU has the talent to give Carolina everything it can handle in this matchup.

Additionally, opponents have been shooting absolutely brutally from deep against the Heels in ACC play.

Some of that is a credit to UNC's defense, but a part of that is also some good fortune.

Expect FSU's guards to knock down their fair share of open triples, and it's worth pointing out, they combined for 12 3s in the first meeting between these two.

I expect this game to be tight all the way down to the wire, so I believe there's plenty of value on the Noles as an underdog.

If Carolina beats me again, so be it.

Pick: Florida State +6.5

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