The Northern Iowa Panthers play the St. John's Red Storm in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in San Diego, California, on Friday, March 20. Tip-off is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.
St. John's is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -530. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa enters as the underdog at +10.5 with a moneyline of +390. The over/under sits at 131.5 total points.
Here’s my Northern Iowa vs. St. John's prediction and college basketball picks for Friday, March 20.
Northern Iowa vs St. John's Prediction
My Pick: Northern Iowa +9.5 (play to +7.5)
My Northern Iowa vs St. John's best bet is on Northern Iowa +9.5 (play to +7.5). For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Northern Iowa vs St. John's Odds
| Northern Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -104 | 131.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| St. John's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -118 | 131.5 -110o / -110u | -530 |
- Northern Iowa vs St. John's Spread: St. John's -9.5, Northern Iowa +9.5
- Northern Iowa vs St. John's Over/Under: 131.5 Points
- Northern Iowa vs St. John's Moneyline: Northern Iowa +390, St. John's -530
Northern Iowa vs St. John's College Basketball Betting Preview
Northern Iowa vs St. John's Pick, Betting Analysis
Northern Iowa ran through the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament as a No. 6 seed, but that seed was misleading.
The Panthers lost 12 games this year, but seven came when starting four-man Tristan Smith was hurt. When Smith is playing, UNI boasts a record of 22-5.
Smith averages 9.1 points per game and 5.9 rebounds per game, but he's a terrific glue guy who helps set the defensive tone for UNI.
That's invaluable for a Northern Iowa team that ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Head coach Ben Jacobson deploys a pack-line defense, which works because of UNI's length, and it keeps the ball out of the paint.
It usually results in teams forcing late-clock 3s, as 41% of opponents' shots come from downtown. The good thing about that is Northern Iowa holds teams to 28% from 3.
Keep an eye on the Panthers ability to keep St. John's off the glass. The best thing the Red Storm does is grab offensive rebounds at a 35% clip, but UNI gives them up only 26% of the time.
Sure, Northern Iowa is smaller on the interior, but not by much. Starting center Will Hornseth stands at 6-foot-8 and Smith is 6-foot-6, while St. John's has Zuby Ejiofor at 6-foot-9 and Bryce Hopkins at 6-foot-8.
That's why I think St. John's could be in danger here. The Panthers can make some stylistic adjustments to really make life hard on the Johnnies.
The question for the Big East champs is, can they shoot? Well, I still don't trust their shooting.
They shoot just 33% from 3, and three of their five starters — Ejiofor, Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell — are poor shooters. Ejiofor and Hopkins can hit them, but in a numbers game, UNI will live with them shooting it.
Plus, Mitchell is a total non-factor from deep, going 0-for-12 from 3 this year.
Another potential stylistic edge is how Northern Iowa can attack St. John's aggressive defense. The Red Storm will employ full-court pressure, resulting in a 19% defensive turnover rate.
However, Northern Iowa has a steady ball handler in Trey Campbell, and it turns the ball over just 14% of the time. Campbell is the leading scorer for a Panthers squad that ranks 156th in offensive efficiency.
We know Northern Iowa is capable of an outlier game, though. It scored 1.43 points per possession (PPP) against a really good UIC defense in the Missouri Valley title game.
While that number is a total outlier, UNI can hit shots, as Campbell hit six 3s in that one.
Leon Bond is the best athlete on the team, and he can shoot. On top of that, Max Weisbrod can really shoot.
Northern Iowa vs St. John's Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm expecting a close game here. Perhaps the physically imposing nature of St. John's bigs is too much, but the number is a bit steep here.
The Panthers played three teams in the nonconference portion of the schedule that ranked in the top 85 in KenPom.
They lost by three to Tulsa, by five at Saint Mary's and by five to Wichita State in overtime. SMC and Wichita have more length than UNI, but the Panthers kept it close.
The same should happen here.
The Johnnies' guard play isn't great, UNI doesn't turn it over, and it protects the glass well. That feels like the perfect recipe for a cover from the No. 12 seed.
My Pick: Northern Iowa +9.5 (Play to +7.5)
