Murray State vs. Morehead State Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet the Ohio Valley Conference Championship

Murray State vs. Morehead State Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet the Ohio Valley Conference Championship article feature image

Joe Murphy/Getty Images. Pictured: Justice Hill.

  • The first conference championship of the 2021-22 college basketball season is here.
  • Murray State takes on Morehead State in a Saturday night title game.
  • Matt Cox of Three Man Weave shares his top bet for this OVC final below.

Murray State vs. Morehead State Odds

Saturday, March 5
8:30 p.m. ET
Murray State Odds
-115o / -105u
Morehead State Odds
-115o / -105u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Murray State and Morehead State meet on the dance floor for the third time this season. This time, it's for all the marbles.

The Racers and Eagles took two different paths to reach the Ohio Valley Conference Championship — the first title game of the college basketball season.

Morehead pulled off a hard-earned victory over Belmont, 53-51, notching the third win over the Bruins this season. On the heels of Thursday's blowout win over Tennessee Tech, this will be the third game in three days for the pesky Eagles.

As for Murray, don't be fooled by last night's final score against SEMO. The Redhawks were fortunate to skate inside the number for a sleazy cover, as the Racers were up 20-plus nearly the entire way.

The stark contrast in effort expended between these two is a key part of this handicap. Murray coasted to victory last night and is only on one back-to-back. Morehead, meanwhile, will be running on fumes.

However, mentioned in Action's Ohio Valley Conference Tournament primer, Morehead won't be scared of the big bad Racers. Those tired and weary legs could take a toll, especially late in the second half, but the Eagles aren't completely outclassed by Murray from a size and athleticism standpoint.

Morehead could've won either of the regular-season meetings, especially the barn burner at home on Feb. 12.

Head coach Preston Spradlin remembers fumbling away that golden opportunity fondly, as he told Sportsnaut in advance of tonight's rubber match:

“We feel we let one get away about three weeks ago, and it has left a bad taste in our mouths,” Morehead State coach Preston Spradlin said. “We wanted this opportunity, and so now we’ve got what we asked for and we’re really excited to see how we respond to that.”

Another motivational angle to this handicap: Murray State's quest for an at-large berth. Most bracketologists peg the Racers to wind up on the 8-seed or 9-seed line as of Friday evening. A loss to Morehead would be nothing to scoff at but could drop Murray to a less favorable spot in the bracket.

Despite a gut lean to Murray on the side, I'm taking a contrarian angle on the total. Typically, playing unders in these back-to-back settings is a plus EV wager.

However, the total opened at 130, down two points from the most recent meeting and down six points from the first meeting.

If Murray can assert its dominance early, this game should open up a bit and consequently drive the possession count up, too. As disciplined as Morehead is at playing at its own speed, it may be forced to attack opportunistically in transition if it gets down 7-10 points — or more.

Pick: Over 130

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Nick Sterling
Jun 15, 2024 UTC