The Oklahoma State Cowboys play the Colorado Buffaloes in the Big 12 Tournament first round. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Colorado is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. The total is set at 164.5 points.
Here’s my Oklahoma State vs. Colorado predictions and college basketball picks for March 10, 2026.
Oklahoma State vs Colorado Prediction
My Pick: Colorado -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
My Oklahoma State vs Colorado best bet is on the Buffaloes to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Oklahoma State vs. Colorado Odds
| OK State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 164.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 164.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Oklahoma State vs Colorado spread: Colorado -2.5
- Oklahoma State vs Colorado over/under: 164.5 points
- Oklahoma State vs Colorado moneyline: Oklahoma State +105, Colorado -125
Oklahoma State vs Colorado College Basketball Betting Preview
Oklahoma State Basketball
Oklahoma State had a very strange, streaky time in Big 12 play. The Cowboys endured a five-game losing streak in February, which killed their tournament hopes. They finished the season on a 2-2 run and outplayed Houston for most of their final game before losing.
The Cowboys play a rampant tempo and do a lot of iso ball with their guards. Playing fast is nothing new for head cach Steve Lutz, but it's more controlled chaos, as they turn the ball over just 16% of the time and play at the ninth-fastest tempo.
The iso-ball attitude shows in Oklahoma State's assist rate — only 51% of its makes come via an assist.
The Cowboys rank 56th in offensive efficiency. They rank outside the top 250 in 2-point and 3-point defense, but they make up for it by reaching the foul line 39% of the time.
Anthony Roy leads the team with 16.7 points per game, and he's all about the "get shots up" attitude. He's a pure bucket getter, but he shoots just 42% from the field (and 39% from deep). Roy can carry Oklahoma State to a win, but he can also be the reason it doesn't win.
We sadly won't get a full-strength Oklahoma State team. Big-man Parsa Fallah is out for the year, and he was the team's second leading scorer. Freshman Benjamin Ahmad has filled in nicely, but Fallah is a different beast.
Some of the guards will have to step up with Fallah out. Jaylen Curry and Kanye Clary have the ball often and need to pick up the slack.
On the defensive end, Oklahoma State is just 117th in defensive efficiency. It ranks 213th in 2-point field goal defense and 269th in 3-point defense. That's another issue in the post-Fallah era. They have less rim-protection without Fallah.
Colorado Basketball
Colorado has gotten progressively better throughout the season. The Buffaloes dealt with a six-game losing skid in the middle of league action, but they won three of their final five games and had a chance to beat Arizona.
I don't have a ton of faith in their defense, as they're 115th in defensive efficiency. For some optimism, most of the damage comes from deep, as opponents shoot 37% from downtown. Oklahoma State isn't a great shooting team, and its 3-point percentage can be driven by variance.
The starting lineup for the Buffs should dominate. They have a pair of stud guards in Isaiah Johnson and Barrington Hargress. Johnson leads the team with 17 points and shoots 49% from the field. Hargress adds 14.1 points and four dimes per game.
Starting center Bangot Dak also averages double-figures, as does Sebastian Rancik. We'll see if Rancik, who serves as a sharpshooting four-man next to Dak, can play. He didn't play in the last few games of the season.
The numbers for Colorado's offense are a bit promising. It ranks 55th in offensive efficiency and turns the ball over just 14% of the time. The Buffs also shoot 53% on 2s (126th) and 35% from 3 (103rd). That should work well against the poor defensive guards on Oklahoma State's roster.
Oklahoma State vs. Colorado Betting Analysis
The line opened up with Oklahoma State catching 1.5 points, and it's jumped to 2.5 points at the time of writing.
I like the Buffaloes here.
The pace should be rampant, but both teams play fast, so I don't think it favors one team more than the other.
What I think does benefit one of the teams is how dominant the Buffaloes' guards are. Johnson scored just nine points in Colorado's win over Oklahoma State a few weeks ago.
He'll be better than that. Hargress scored 16 in that game, and Colorado won by 14.
Without Fallah, Oklahoma State just isn't as good. That also shifts my thinking here.
My Pick: Colorado -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
