The Penn Quakers play the Illinois Fighting Illini in the first round of the NCAA Tournament from Greenville, South Carolina. Tip-off is set for 9:25 p.m. ET on TNT.
Illinois is favored by -24.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. Meanwhile, Penn is the underdog at +24.5 with a moneyline of +3000. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my Penn vs. Illinois predictions and college basketball picks for March 19, 2026.
Penn vs Illinois Prediction
My Pick: Illinois -21.5 or Better (Stay Away at Current Number)
My Penn vs Illinois best bet is the Illini to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Penn vs Illinois Odds
| Penn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -105 | 150.5 -115o / -105u | +3000 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -115 | 150.5 -115o / -105u | -10000 |
- Penn vs Illinois spread: Illinois -24.5
- Penn vs Illinois over/under: 150.5 points
- Penn vs Illinois moneyline: Penn +3000, Illinois -10000
Penn vs Illinois College Basketball Betting Preview
Penn Basketball
The Ivy League champ always makes for an interesting first-round matchup. That's in part because Ivy Madness is just four teams, leading to the conference's regular-season champ or runner-up clinching the bid in the first seven years of the tournament's existence.
Because stronger teams emerge, the Ivy champ is 6-7 in its past 13 first-round games, with two Sweet 16 runs. When seeded 12-14, Ivy champs are 6-2 ATS in the first round since 2014.
Penn, however, is the lowest-seeded team to ever emerge from Ivy Madness. Penn finished third in league play, then needed overtime in both rounds of the conference tournament to secure this bid. The Quakers needed 44 points, including a miracle 3-pointer from TJ Powers, to force overtime and defeat Yale.
That brings the Quakers a wave of momentum as they head into Greenville. They're hoping to have season-leading scorer Ethan Roberts back in the lineup after he suffered a concussion in practice in the days before Ivy Madness. (He missed both wins in Ithaca.)
Head coach Fran McCaffery, very familiar with Illinois from his time coaching Iowa, said Roberts would be re-evaluated in the coming days.
Without Roberts, Powers becomes the focal point, and that's been a mixed bag this season. Powers, formerly at Duke and Virginia, was the star of the Ivy League title game after posting 16 points and 12 rebounds in the semifinal.
In the four games Roberts missed in December, Powers had 19 points and 13 rebounds against Rutgers, but he also added six turnovers in a narrow loss. In a loss to George Mason, he had just eight points and battled foul trouble.
In general, Penn's offense is odd. The Quakers shoot the 11th-best percentage from deep in college hoops, but took the fewest triples in the Ivy.
Instead, they pound the ball inside the arc, where they shot just 46.2% this season, 346th in the country. The Quakers shot and made a ton of triples against Yale to pull the upset, and to pull another one, Penn will need to do so again.
Illinois Basketball
Illinois is driven by first-team All-Big Ten freshman Keaton Wagler (pronounced WOG-ler). He's been incredible this season, averaging 17.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game. His 46 points and four assists, on just 17 field-goal attempts, at Purdue, was arguably the best individual game performance in the sport this season.
David Mirkovic is a slow-footed, old-school player with gorgeous touch and high hoops IQ. Andrej Stojakovic, the son of NBA great Peja Stojakovic, is more of a slasher than a sharpshooter like his dad. Arizona transfer Kylan Boswell and sixth-year player Ben Humrichous do the dirty work in the backcourt and frontcourt, respectively.
Up front, head coach Brad Underwood has the blessing of two 7-footers, the Croatian-born Ivisic twins.
Zvonimir mans the paint defensively and averages over two blocks per night, while working as a pick-and-pop man offensively. His brother, Tomislav, takes nearly five shots from deep per game and hits them at an impressive clip for a 7-footer.
The resulting roster is well worthy of this 3-seed. Illinois was third nationally in offensive rebounding rate and 10th in turnover rate, resulting in a ton of excess possessions.
On the defensive end, no team sent opponents to the free-throw line less than Illinois. The Illini play a math game — not only will they have more possessions than their opponent, but the opposition will also have to earn every bucket.
Penn vs. Illinois Pick, Betting Analysis
This game will come down to two stats.
The first is simple. Can Penn find 30-plus viable 3-point shots and make almost half of its attempts? The Quakers aren't going to score inside the arc; past games against power conference size and speed prove that.
Penn shot 31% on 2s against Providence and 35% against Villanova. Penn was better (55%) at Rutgers, but it added just five made deep balls on 24% outside shooting.
Penn gave Rutgers, a Big Ten team, a scare on the road, but Illinois pulverized Rutgers, allowing just 16 first-half points in a 26-point win.
The second key stat is Illinois' offensive rebounding. The Illini live on the offensive glass, and Penn simply hasn't seen a team like Illinois.
The only other team Penn has faced that ranked in the top 50 in offensive rebounding rate was Columbia, and I don't need to tell you that boxing out the frontline of 16-12 Columbia doesn't compare to stopping Underwood's barrage of Balkans attacking every rebound. Providence outrebounded Penn by 19, including 14 offensive rebounds.
You can certainly try to build a case for a Penn win or cover, but it's a stretch. Illinois hasn't lost to a team outside KenPom's top 30 this season and was 8-2 ATS as a favorite of more than 15 points.
The sharps and early money agree with me.
This line opened at 20.5 and has skyrocketed. I liked it better at the early number and will monitor to see if it gets back in that range.
My Pick: Illinois -21.5 or Better (Stay Away at Current Number)
