The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus, Ohio. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Ohio State is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1100. The total is set at 154 points.
Here’s my Penn State vs. Ohio State predictions and college basketball picks for January 26, 2026.
Penn State vs Ohio State Prediction
My Pick: Ohio State -12.5 (Play to -13.5)
My Penn State vs Ohio State best bet is on the Buckeyes to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Penn State vs. Ohio State Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 154 -110o / -110u | +700 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 154 -110o / -110u | -1100 |
- Penn State vs Ohio State spread: Ohio State -12.5
- Penn State vs Ohio State over/under: 154 points
- Penn State vs Ohio State moneyline: Penn State +700, Ohio State -1100
Penn State vs Ohio State College Basketball Betting Preview
Penn State Basketball
Penn State took an absolute beating in its past two games, losing to Wisconsin by 27 and Maryland by 23. To make matters worse, the Nittany Lions gave up 90+ points and 1.35 PPP in both games.
The Nittany Lions have the worst defense in the Big Ten, ranking 227th in KenPom's defensive efficiency. Opponents shoot a strong 57% on 2s against them and also hit 37% of their 3s. The only way Penn State can string stops together is by pressuring to force turnovers, a staple of Mike Rhoades-coached teams.
Their lack of rim-deterrence is a major problem, though. None of the Penn State bigs are shot blockers, and Melih Tunca, a guard, leads them with 0.3 blocks per game.
Offensively, I don't know what to make of Penn State right now. Kayden Mingo's return seems like it hurt the Nittany Lions more than it helped them. He's a total volume scorer, and that can disrupt an offense's flow.
Mingo scored 19 against Maryland and then six against Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions played through the paint more without Mingo, and that worked a bit. With him back, it's back to a lot of iso creation, and there's a ceiling to that.
Shooting is a huge problem for Penn State. It hits just 32% from deep, and the Nittany Lions have just one rotation player (Eli Rice), who makes better than 34% from deep. Freddie Dillione V is a more willing shooter than Mingo, but he's very streaky. He also struggled dramatically in the two losses last week.
Ohio State Basketball
Ohio State is now 13-6 overall and 5-3 in Big Ten action. The Buckeyes have a good chance to make the NCAA Tournament, barring losses to teams like Penn State, which has been the death knell for past Jake Diebler-coached teams.
The Buckeyes have the perfect recipe for dominating Penn State's defense. For one, Ohio State turns the ball over just 15% of the time and has multiple capable ball-handlers.
Secondly, most of the Buckeyes' damage is done inside the arc, shooting 59% on 2s.
Bruce Thornton is one of the best guards in America, posting 20 points and 3.6 assists per game. One of his best attributes is attacking downhill and finding his spots in the mid-range, which should be open against Penn State.
Plus, he's a terrific pick-and-roll player. If he gets switched onto Penn State's less agile bigs, he could drop 30+ points.
The key will be establishing the physical bigs. Amare Bynum and Devin Royal are built like NFL linebackers and play with immense force. Pairing Penn State's Josh Reed on one will help, but none of the Nittany Lions' wings can hang with the other.
That'll present some real chances to score for Ohio State.
The issue for Ohio State is on the defensive end, where it ranks No. 63 in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric. Opponents do well at scoring inside on the Buckeyes, as they hold teams to just 51% on 2s.
Penn State vs. Ohio State Betting Analysis
I'm always reluctant to lay a big number with a Diebler-coached product. His coaching tenure has provided very little optimism.
However, when this Penn State team gets blown out, it gets crushed. The Nittany Lions took a double-digit loss in seven of their 19 games so far.
Give me the Buckeyes here.
They have enough offensive firepower to score 85+ on a truly woeful defense. I think they can hold Penn State to low-70s scoring numbers, too.
My Pick: Ohio State -12.5 (Play to -13.5)
