The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, Indiana. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on BTN.
Purdue is favored by 21.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here’s my Penn State vs. Purdue prediction and college basketball picks for January 10, 2026.
Penn State vs Purdue Prediction, Pick
My Pick: Penn State +21.5 (Play to +20)
My Penn State vs Purdue best bet is on the Nittany Lions to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -115 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | +1800 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -105 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
- Penn State vs Purdue spread: Purdue -21.5
- Penn State vs Purdue over/under: 152.5 points
- Penn State vs Purdue moneyline: Penn State +1800, Purdue -10000
Penn State vs Purdue Game Preview
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview
Is Penn State officially a plucky underdog, or did the Nittany Lions just have a few decent games against Michigan State and Michigan? There just might be something here.
The Nittany Lions have covered the spread in three consecutive Big Ten touts, all against top-20 level squads.
How has it covered of late? Well, Penn State has done a terrific job slowing the game down. The Nittany Lions are 206th in adjusted tempo, but their defense is what truly slows the game down, sitting 340th nationally in average defensive possession length.
I doubt Penn State will emerge victorious in many Big Ten games, but it’s feisty enough to keep teams on their heels.
From a philosophy standpoint, the Nittany Lions will look for takeaways, as they force turnovers 20% of the time.
However, their field goal defense is a nightmare. Opponents shoot 56% from inside the arc against the Nittany Lions and drill 3s at a 35% clip. Some of that is a byproduct of gambling for turnovers, but the interior scoring numbers are where the talent disparity shines most.
Of note, Penn State will be without leading scorer Kayden Mingo for a second straight game. Without Mingo, Penn State will call on guards Melih Tunca and Freddie Dilione V to shoot more.
Dilione adds 14.3 points per game and can be a streaky shooter. Tunca is a bigger guard at 6-foot-5 who will look to put pressure on the rim.
Maybe I'm a prisoner of the moment, but it's easy to draw positives from Josh Reed and Ivan Juric doing well against Michigan and Michigan State's bigs. That gives me optimism entering this one.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview
Purdue is 14-1, with the lone loss coming to Iowa State over a month ago. The Boilermakers have been as steady as it gets for a top-five level team, except for the minor blip on the radar.
The Boilermakers' offense is borderline unstoppable in the half-court, and they have one of the most potent starting lineups in the country. They led the nation in offensive efficiency while shooting a blistering 39% from deep.
Point guard Braden Smith leads the country with nine assists per game, and he also shoots 39% from deep. Plus, Fletcher Loyer and C.J. Cox shoot close to 40% from deep.
Purdue is also dominant on the glass. The pair of Oscar Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn are walking double-doubles. Cluff posts 11.2 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, while shooting 72% from the field.
Kaufman-Renn is a double-double machine in his own right, but the game can slow down when Purdue pounds the paint.
Feeding the bigs and a steady diet of pick-and-rolls leads to Purdue playing the 288th-slowest tempo in the country. That should bode well with Penn State looking to slow the opposition down.
However, the Boilermakers rarely turn the ball over, giving it away 15% of the time. So, that's a boost for the home team.
Defensively, Purdue is much improved from a season ago. It holds teams to 29% from 3, although that number could face some regression. They also hold teams to 48% shooting on 2s, and that's a result of Cluff and Kaufman-Renn's strength inside.
How To Make Penn State vs. Purdue Picks
Am I thrilled to take Penn State? Not really, but I don't see an angle for Purdue. The Boilermakers want to run a crisp half-court offense, and that'll slow things down.
I could also see Penn State having some success scoring on Purdue inside. It could be tougher without Mingo, but the Nittany Lions shoot 55% from 2, and Purdue is barely top-100 in 2-point field goal defense.
Moreover, the Nittany Lions held their own on the glass versus Michigan and Michigan State. That'll be the swing stat, and if the Nittany Lions hold Purdue to below their season average, I think they have an excellent path to cover.
My Pick: Penn State +21.5 (Play to +20)
