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The Pitt Panthers take on the Butler Bulldogs in Indianapolis, IN. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Peacock/NBCSN.
Butler is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -154. The total is set at 159.5 points.
Here’s my Pitt vs. Butler prediction and college basketball picks for November 13, 2026.
Pitt vs Butler Prediction
Pick: Under 160.5
My Pitt vs Butler best bet is on the Under. Be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page and download the Action Network app for the latest picks and analysis.
Pitt vs Butler Odds
| Pittsburgh Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -104 | 159.5 -115o / -105u | +128 |
| Butler Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -118 | 159.5 -115o / -105u | -154 |
- Pitt vs Butler spread: Butler -2.5 (-118 ), Pitt +2.5 (-104)
- Pitt vs Butler over/under: 159.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Pitt vs Butler moneyline: Pitt +128, Butler -154
Pitt vs Butler College Basketball Preview
Pitt Basketball
Pitt is a team that has been rebuilt from the ground up, and the early returns have come with a physical edge. Jeff Capel's roster is almost entirely new after a 13-20 season, and the pieces that matter on the glass are in place.
Baye Ndongo, a senior forward who came over from Georgia Tech, is averaging 11.7 rebounds, and 14 of his 35 boards have been on the offensive end, while freshman forward Chase Foster adds 7.0 a game next to him.
The Panthers are out-rebounding opponents by 7.7 a game, 40.3 to 32.7, and they have 40 offensive rebounds through three games to 27 for their opponents.
The rest of the profile fits a team that wins by making games ugly. Pitt is forcing 16.7 turnovers a game while committing only 10.0, and opponents are shooting just 36.1% from the field against it.
That has led to wins of 95-57 over Rider, 80-61 over Buffalo, and an 82-76 win over Penn State at the Palestra on Sunday, a game where A'lahn Sumler scored 26 points, and Jonathan Powell had five steals even though Penn State won the rebounding battle 37-28.
That Penn State game is the one blemish on the glass, and it is a reminder that the Panthers' numbers are partly the result of a soft opening schedule.
Now Pitt goes to Hinkle Fieldhouse for its first road game of the season.
Butler Basketball
Butler is a very different team than the one that lost Finley Bizjack, Michael Ajayi, and three other top scorers. First-year coach Ronald Nored has rebuilt the roster with transfers and international additions, and the early results have been loud at home.
The Bulldogs beat Lafayette 96-60 and Fairleigh Dickinson 99-65 at Hinkle, shooting 36% from three against Lafayette and holding a 52-29 halftime lead over the Knights. Jalen Jackson (17.7 points a game), Asim Djulovic (17.3) and Eduardo Klafke (16.0) are the scoring core, and Butler is out-rebounding opponents by 13.3 a game behind forward Treyson Anderson, who averages 8.3 rebounds, and 6-foot-10 center Drayton Jones, who has seven blocks.
The more telling game came on the road. Butler lost 100-81 at Boise State on Sunday, allowing 100 points in a game that finished with 181 combined. The Bulldogs are turning the ball over 15.3 times a game and allowing 75.0 points a game, and their lopsided home wins came against Lafayette and Fairleigh Dickinson.
Pitt is a better test than either.
Pitt vs Butler Pick, Betting Analysis
The "Rebound Unders" System is built for a game like this one:
The system targets non-conference games with an elevated total where the road team is a strong rebounder and the home team is not an overwhelming underdog, and each of those boxes is checked.
Pitt is the road team and is out-rebounding opponents by nearly eight a game, Butler is a 3-point home favorite rather than a long shot, and the total has climbed from an opener of 155.5 to 160 and 160.5 at some books.
The logic is that a rebounding road team limits the other side's second chances and extends its own possessions, which cuts down on the transition opportunities that drive high totals, and that unfamiliar opponents in November tend to play with discipline rather than pace. Pitt's offensive rebounding gives it a way to turn missed shots into possessions rather than into fast breaks the other way.
The market backs up the idea that the number has been pushed up more than the games have supported. Pitt's three games have totaled 152, 141, and 158 points, all below 160, and the moneyline has barely moved, from Pitt +138 to +146, with Butler a 3-point favorite.
The total has gone up about five points, which we read as a reaction to Butler's 92.0 points a game and the 181-point game at Boise State, but Butler's roster is brand new, and the sample is three games, two of them against opponents that lost by 36 and 34.
A new coach and a new group at Hinkle against a physical opponent is a different test, and we expect Pitt to try to take the game to the glass and shorten it. Pitt's defense gives it a way to do that, holding opponents to 64.7 points a game on 36% shooting.
Fade the recency bias inflating the total tonight.
Pick: Under 160.5
