Providence vs Marquette Odds & Prediction: How to Bet With Kolek Out

Editor's Note: Marquette's Tyler Kolek (oblique) is officially out.

In terms of pre-game excitement and the potential for drama, it’s hard to beat Friday night’s pairing of Marquette and Providence.

We’re talking about the late game among the two Big East tournament semifinals, with a packed house at Madison Square Garden, two fanbases that have descended upon New York City and Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery on the TV broadcast.

On top of all that, we have a live underdog trying to climb its way off the NCAA tournament bubble battling a favorite trying to figure out life with its best player sidelined — or heroically welcoming him back to the lineup.

Grab your popcorn and kick your feet up. This one could be a classic, but which side should you back?

Danny Hurley earned Big East Coach of the Year honors for his ability to re-load the reigning national champions into the best team in the conference again. Seton Hall’s Shaheen Holloway also deserves credit for the way his Pirates topped expectations.

Yet the story of this year’s Big East might be Providence’s ability to survive and thrive after leading scorer Bryce Hopkins tore his ACL. Many, including myself, wrote this team off after that injury, not seeing how the Friars could stay competitive in such a tough conference.

English was able to trust some of his bench players and put more on the plate of big man Josh Oduro, though the real hero has been Devin Carter.

His work in the absence of his running mate was recognized with Big East Player of the Year honors. He's leading the conference in scoring, is grabbing nine rebounds per game as a guard and is playing elite defense.

He’s both Providence’s best player and an overqualified glue guy, doing the little things on top of his scoring. Carter has played 38+ minutes in five straight games and didn’t leave the floor in Thursday night’s win over Creighton, posting 22 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two steals.

He’ll be the focal point for Marquette’s defense, opening up the chance for role players like Ticket Gaines and Jayden Pierre to make big contributions.

Pierre, a promising sophomore, had 15 points, seven assists and hit the biggest shot of the night against Creighton.

The Golden Eagles are hard to pin down right now. An injury to Marquette’s best player — point guard Tyler Kolek — has kept him out of the lineup for four straight games, irrevocably changing the trajectory of this team.

While Shaka Smart continues to suggest Kolek will return at some point this season, until he does, Marquette floats in limbo.

The Golden Eagles are, obviously, much worse without Kolek. Bart Torvik’s metrics ranked Marquette as the eighth-best team in the nation over the Golden Eagles’ first 28 games, but it dropped to 41st since Leap Day, encompassing its four games without Kolek.

So much of Marquette’s offense is initiated by Kolek as a ball-handler, so it's hard for it to replicate that on the fly.

Smart has turned the keys over to Kam Jones and big man Oso Ighodaro, trying to execute similar actions. The shift changes the math on the Marquette roster, though, leaving players taking tougher shots than they usually find with the crafty, playmaking Kolek on the floor.

On Thursday night, Marquette barely scored one point per possession and needed overtime to beat a shaky Villanova team, on a night where the Wildcats made just 9-of-35 from outside the arc.

If Kolek doesn’t play, these teams should be considered — at worst — even on a neutral floor. The Marquette of the last two weeks without its Mr. Everything is a clear step below the ceiling of a team with Final Four dreams.

If Kolek suits up, the Marquette fans in attendance will be raucous for his return, yet I’d need to see how he holds up after two weeks away while still nursing a nagging oblique injury.

If there’s one team in the Big East I wouldn’t want my point guard to face while working through pain, it might be these pesky Friars.

When the news about the All-American point guard drops, this line will jump in either direction by several points.

I’m comfortable enough with the Friars +4.5, even if Kolek gives it a go.

Pick: Providence +4.5