Saint Mary’s vs. Grand Canyon Odds, Opening Spread, Predictions for 2024 NCAA Tournament

Saint Mary's vs. Grand Canyon Odds

The 2024 NCAA Tournament field has been announced and Saint Mary's will take on Grand Canyon in Round 1 of the West region. Here's everything you need to know about Saint Mary's vs. Grand Canyon odds, spread and more.

Saint Mary's opened as a 5.5-point favorite over Grand Canyon in the first round off the NCAA Tournament, with the total set at over/under 129 points scored by both teams combined.

Find out how No. 5 seeded Saint Mary's and No. 12 seeded Grand Canyon matchup statistically ahead of their opening round matchup.

Statistical Matchup

St. Mary's vs. Grand Canyon Analysis

If you’re looking for a potential upset in the first-round, the the No. 12 seed Grand Canyon Antelopes against the No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels could be of interest.

The Gaels lost only one game in WCC play and responded to that loss by winning the WCC title over Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s opened as a 5.5-point favorite over the WAC title-winning Lopes.

It’s just another standard year in Moraga. Randy Bennett led the Gaels to another NCAA Tournament, led by stellar guard play from WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis and shooter Aidan Mahaney.

Plus, SMC’s defense is reliable as usual, ranking 16th in defensive efficiency. That said, Bennett is playing without a full arsenal of weapons. Starting forward Joshua Jefferson is out, which means Mason Forbes will play the lion’s share of minutes next to Mitchell Saxen.

Grand Canyon boasts an abundance of talent, headed by shot-creators Tyon Grant-Foster and Ray Harrison. Harrison took a secondary role behind TGF this year and turned into a reliable floor general with an occasional sharp scoring game.

Meanwhile, Grant-Foster looks like a matchup nightmare for SMC.

The one way opponents can exploit the Gaels defense is by running before the defense gets set. Grant-Foster is terrific at pushing off the rebound — averaging over six rebounds — and driving to the hoop.

Grand Canyon is one of the best teams in college hoops at generating free throws, ranking fifth nationally in FTA/FGA, per KenPom. In comparison, Saint Mary’s defense is middle-of-the-pack in the same metric.

The Lopes' propensity for drawing fouls — plus the fact they connect on 75% of free throws — could decide the outcome.

I’m looking for Grand Canyon’s skilled creators to make play, and pull an upset at +205 on the moneyline. That’s the 12/5 upset I love.

–Sean Paul

For more coverage of the 2024 NCAA Tournament and Selection Sunday, make sure to check out our experts' live reactions to the bracket reveal and the Selection Sunday live show, where you can get their instant analysis on every matchup as well as some early insights to help you make your bets.