The San Diego State Aztecs take on the Arizona Wildcats in Phoenix, Arizona. Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Arizona is favored by -14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1400. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my San Diego State vs. Arizona prediction and college basketball picks for December 20, 2025.
San Diego State vs Arizona Prediction
My Pick: Arizona -14.5 (Play to -17)
My San Diego State vs Arizona best bet is the Wildcats to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
San Diego State vs. Arizona Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
- San Diego State vs Arizona spread: Arizona -14.5
- San Diego State vs Arizona over/under: 156.5 points
- San Diego State vs Arizona moneyline: San Diego State +850, Arizona -1400
San Diego State vs Arizona College Basketball Betting Preview
San Diego State Basketball
It's been a bumpy road for the Aztecs so far. The preseason favorite in the Mountain West — thanks to bringing back a ton of production, including Miles Byrd and Magoon Gwath — San Diego State has been far from a finished product.
However, in hindsight, perhaps the results have been better than we thought. A two-overtime loss to Troy isn't great, but the Trojans also went to three overtimes at USC and won at UAB.
The 40-point demolition against Michigan is forgivable; the Wolverines do that to everybody now. The Aztecs took care of business against Oregon and Utah Valley — an excellent mid-major team — and blew out Air Force in their Mountain West opener.
Perhaps they're not trending way up, but the Aztecs are starting to look more like themselves. They've held three straight opponents below 1.0 points per possession, with Gwath really starting to stabilize his role in the starting lineup.
Plus, the offense has been far better than advertised, with San Diego State knocking down perimeter shots at a rate unheard of since Malachi Flynn was running the show back in 2020. BJ Davis and Elzie Harrington are currently 27-of-45 (60%) from beyond the arc – absolutely scorching.
Of course, regression is likely coming in that department: ShotQuality projects the Aztecs to be shooting 8.4% worse than they actually are.
For San Diego State to hit its ceiling outcomes – win the Mountain West, wear home jerseys in the first round of the NCAA Tournament – it needs to rediscover its form as a top-20 defense.
Brian Dutcher’s teams have been that for six straight years.
Arizona Basketball
There’s no way around it: The Wildcats are a juggernaut. Tommy Lloyd’s style – up-tempo, play with size and physicality – has always been a steamroller in the regular season, but this season's team feels different.
The size is on another level (sixth nationally in average height), and the talent level is in the sport’s top stratosphere thanks to likely NBA players in Koa Peat and Brayden Burries.
Arizona simply bludgeons foes into submission at the rim and on the glass. The Wildcats barely even register a perimeter attack, ranking 356th nationally in percentage of points scored on 3-pointers (KenPom).
But when you have this degree of physical dominance, scoring via the jump shot is a tertiary concern.
It's not just the height. Arizona is a team of adults, a collection of weight-room warriors that can terrify an opponent the second they step off the bus.
Tobe Awaka is the living embodiment of this identity, a 6-foot-8, 255-pound brute who's the country’s most dominant rebounder. He doesn't even start, though, because Motiejus Krivas (7-foot-2, 260), Peat (6-foot-8, 235) and Ivan Kharchenkov (6-foot-7, 220) are already an excellent trio.
The smallest guy in the Wildcats’ rotation is 6-foot-3, 200-pound point guard Jaden Bradley, a downhill demon who lives at the free-throw line.
This size shows up on both ends of the floor. Arizona ranks eighth nationally in offensive rebound rate, and it gobbles up 44.8% of available second chances when Awaka is on the floor. That number would lead the country.
Unsurprisingly, Arizona ranks in the 98th percentile in rim attempt frequency, per CBB Analytics. The Cats also rank 13th nationally in 2-point percentage defense, an especially impressive number considering they've played a top-50 strength of schedule.
This isn't a team of shot swatting menaces, but the Wildcats force a ton of mid-range jumpers, and finishing inside is nearly impossible against them.
San Diego State vs. Arizona Betting Analysis
Any Arizona game starts with the obvious: Can the Wildcats’ opponent avoid getting unceremoniously punked in the paint? Can they compete on the glass and avoid allowing a complete layup line?
San Diego State is no slouch inside, sporting a deep group of interior players. Gwath is the key, a long-armed pogo stick who's one of the country’s best shot blockers.
Miles Heide is another stout presence on the glass, and Pharaoh Compton is a well-built bruiser who likely plays big minutes here. Jeremiah Oden and Tae Simmons add more athletic forward options.
The issue is the strength disparity. Gwath is still generally a beanpole and not a great defensive rebounder. Heide isn't quite big enough to battle Krivas and Awaka.
San Diego State only ranks 230th in defensive rebound rate, and Michigan’s interior onslaught – 65.7% from 2, grabbed 15 offensive rebounds – gives an ominous projection for what could happen here.
An interesting clash here is in Arizona’s shot chart. The Wildcats never take 3s, but San Diego State’s defense is built to allow them.
The Aztecs rank 347th in defensive 3-point attempt rate, per KenPom, and that matches last season, when they ranked 355th. If they can truly force Arizona to launch from the perimeter, then they have a chance.
That's far easier said than done. Arizona will still muscle its way to the paint consistently; the Wildcats are simply too big and too well-coached not to. San Diego State must keep them out of transition.
I think the matchup tilts towards Arizona’s brute strength. But the number is awfully high on a neutral site. Of course, the number could've been 30 against Michigan and it wouldn't have mattered.
Ultimately, I'll ride with Arizona’s physicality edge, especially since I think San Diego State will struggle to make 3s in an NBA arena, particularly with regression looming.
My Pick: Arizona -14.5 (Play to -17)
