For those of you looking to catch up on college basketball now that football is coming to an end, I have you covered from a high level perspective.
It's a completely new landscape with the transfer portal and NIL — in addition to all of the drama surrounding players returning to college from the G League.
While I'm very curious to see what happens with Charles Bediako at Alabama, that's a conversation for a different day. Let's just focus on the on-court product, which is thriving ahead of what should be another very compelling March Madness.
Diaper Dandies
The story of the season in my eyes is the freshman class, which will likely go down as one of the best of all-time.
Look no further than last weekend when Keaton Wagler (Illinois) put on an absolute show in Mackey Arena with 46 points to lead the Illini to an upset win over Purdue.
Down in Lubbock, Kingston Flemings (Houston) dropped 42 in a close loss to the Red Raiders. He's must-see television for the Cougars.
Superstar AJ Dybantsa (BYU) also dropped 40-plus (43) on rival Utah, but the Cougars didn't have enough to pull out a home win over the fantastic freshmen of Arizona on Monday. This undefeated bunch starts a tremendous trio of first-year talents in Brayden Burries, Koa Peat and Ivan Kharchenkov (Arizona).
While Dybantsa (the nation's leading scorer) could go No. 1 overall in the NBA draft, that's no guarantee with Darryn Peterson (Kansas) and Cameron Boozer (Duke) in the mix.
When healthy, Peterson is one of the smoothest offensive players in the country and makes the Jayhawks a real Final Four threat. Meanwhile, Boozer is physically dominating everybody in the ACC on a nightly basis, averaging 23.5 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. And don't sleep on his passing ability, either.
UNC vs. Duke always has juice, but I can't wait for the two battles between Boozer and Caleb Wilson (UNC) — who's also a freshman and could be a top-five NBA draft pick — on February 7 and March 7.
I could go on and on about the impactful freshmen you'll be hearing from over the next two months, but I'll spare you the novel. Instead, I'll list some other noteworthy diaper dandies who could lead their teams to deep runs in March before potentially getting selected in the first round of the NBA draft:
- G Mikel Brown Jr. (Louisville)
- F Nate Ament (Tennessee)
- G Darius Acuff Jr. & Meleek Thomas (Arkansas)
- G Braylon Mullins (UConn)
Also, don't sleep on the three freshmen at Virginia (Chance Mallory, Johann Grunloh, Thijs De Ridder), and I'd be remiss if I didn't mention one of my personal favorites in the electric Ebuka Okorie (Stanford).
And just so I don't leave the non-power conference names out, here are some of the many other freshmen worth checking out that aren't household names:
- Tomislav Buljan & Jake Hall (New Mexico)
- Larry Johnson (McNeese)
- Nick Janowski (St. Thomas)
- Kevair Kennedy (Merrimack)
- Ace Glass (Washington State)
- Zyree Collins (Austin Peay)
- Roman Domon (Murray State)
- Gavin Sykes (Long Beach State)
- Lewis Walker (North Carolina A&T)
- Allen Graves (Santa Clara)
No matter where you look throughout the country, freshmen are contributing in a major way, but especially when it comes to the top teams in the country — and at an unprecedented level.
They'll ultimately have a large say in who cuts down the nets in Indianapolis.
Top of the Class
Due to the ever-changing landscape in college athletics, the gap between the cream of the crop and the rest continues to grow. As a result, the lack of early tournament upsets may continue this season, and into the future.
While it may lead to more parity at the very top, it'll likely continue to become more difficult for true Cinderellas to emerge come tourney time.
Through the first 12 weeks of the season, the AP top-10 only had 13 total losses.
- Arizona (20-0)
- UConn (19-1)
- Michigan (18-1)
- Duke (18-1)
- Nebraska (20-0)
- Gonzaga (21-1)
- Michigan State (18-2)
- Iowa State (18-2)
- Illinois (17-3)
- Houston (17-2)
That's an astonishingly low number and shatters the previous record of 21 set back in the 2018-19 season, For comparison, the top 10 had 26 losses over that same stretch last season and 34 back in 2023.
From an ATS perspective, those 10 teams have gone 111-90-5 (55.2%). That's more than respectable, but the results are much stronger if you remove Michigan and UConn, which have combined to go 0-14 over their past 14 games. The other eight in the top 10 have a combined 95-65-5 ATS record (59.4%), which isn't too shabby.
Speaking of Michigan, it looked like one of the best teams of all-time in November and December, with five wins of 25-plus points over the KenPom top-50, highlighted by a 40-point burial of Gonzaga in Las Vegas.
So, what's changed of late, leading to seven straight non-covers, including an upset loss to Wisconsin and a near-upset at lowly Penn State?
Well, the Wolverines shot 38.3% (27th nationally) from 3-point range through the end of December, but they've seen that percentage plummet to 28.2% (348th nationally) in January.
Now the Wolverines face off against the Spartans on Friday in a top-10 matchup.
Undefeated Streaks
We did still have three remaining unbeaten teams prior to Nebraska falling short at Michigan earlier this week in a very valiant effort with a shorthanded roster.
So now, that leaves only two.
Arizona and…
Miami (OH)?
Yes, the RedHawks out of the MAC remain unbeaten at 21-0. Yes, they've benefited from an extremely easy schedule (362nd non-conference strength of schedule out of 366 teams) and have been a bit fortunate in two recent overtime wins over Buffalo and Kent State that required late comebacks and buzzer beaters. However, it's still a very fun story.
Travis Steele's bunch can flat out shoot, which will always give it a puncher's chance to pull off a couple of wins come tourney time, even if the defense leaves a lot to be desired.
We'll see how long the RedHawks can keep it going.
While Miami (OH) doesn't have any wins over the current KenPom top-50, Arizona has nine. You can't point to the schedule for the Wildcats' 21-0 start. If Arizona wants to finish the season undefeated, it'll certainly earn it. Just take a look at this three-week stretch starting on February 9:
- at Kansas
- vs. Texas Tech
- vs. BYU
- at Houston
- at Baylor
- vs. Kansas
- vs. Iowa State
Sheesh! Regardless of how they finish, the Wildcats are one of the obvious choices to cut down the nets. They've just been flat out dominant since an opening-night victory over the defending champion Gators.
Speaking of Florida, you didn't see the Gators in that top-10 list above, but don't write off Todd Golden's bunch. Thomas Haugh spearheads one of the nation's best frontcourts. If the Gators can just get more consistent guard play from Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee come March, look out.
Upcoming Gems
I already mentioned the Michigan-Michigan State showdown on Friday night, but there are plenty of other popcorn-worthy marquee games throughout the remainder of the season.
Here are the best ones over the next week that we're watching over here at Action Network:
- BYU at Kansas (Jan. 31, 4:30 p.m. ET)
- Illinois at Nebraska (Feb. 1, 4 p.m. ET)
- Alabama at Florida (Feb. 1, 1 p.m. ET)
- Kansas at Texas Tech (Feb. 2, 9 p.m. ET)
- UConn at St. John's (Feb. 6, 8 p.m. ET)
Those will have you covered leading up to next Saturday's superb slate, highlighted by the following matchups:
- Duke at UNC
- Tennessee at Kentucky
- Florida at Texas A&M
- Illinois at Michigan State
- Alabama at Auburn
- Houston at BYU
That's as good as it gets for a Saturday in February one day before the Super Bowl, folks.
Mid-Major to Watch
As I said earlier, it's likely going to become more difficult for the little guys to make a run in the NCAA Tournament given the new college basketball landscape.
However, if you're looking for one team that might fit into the slipper this season, it could be Saint Louis.
For my money, the Billikens have one of the best coaches in the country in Josh Schertz, who leads a squad that ranks in the top-three nationally in effective field goal percentage on both offense and defense.
Schertz has an abundance of shooters at his disposal, including a player that could become a March favorite in Josh Schertz.
Up to No. 25 on KenPom, the Billikens currently sit at 20-1 on the season.
And if not for a miraculous buzzer beater by Stanford, we'd be talking about this team potentially finishing 31-0 in the regular season.
Conference Check In
To close, here's some quick hitters on some of the top conferences:
- The ACC has had a bounce back campaign after only sending four teams to the NCAA Tournament last season. Currently, eight teams would likely get an invite (Duke, Virginia, Louisville, UNC, Clemson, NC State, Miami, SMU), with Virginia Tech still having an outside shot.
- The Big 12 is absolutely loaded, especially at the top. Arizona, Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, Iowa State and BYU are each in the running for a top-four seed. Additionally, UCF is a likely bid getter, while TCU also has a decent chance of getting in and has fared very well against elite competition this season.
- Similarly, the Big Ten has almost just as many teams in the running for a top-four seed between Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois and Purdue. And you can also expect five or six other Big Ten teams to find their way into the field, as well.
- Meanwhile, the Big East really lacks depth this season. UConn, St. John's (which has figured some things out of late) and Villanova (which has been a pleasant surprise) should make the dance. However, it gets dicey from there, with Butler and Seton Hall likely on the outside looking in at the moment. It hasn't helped that Marquette and Creighton have had very down seasons, while even top dog UConn has had some issues on the offensive end of the floor.
- Lastly, the SEC has taken a step back this season, as one might expect following a historically dominant season that saw 14 of the 16 teams get into the tournament with six top-four seeds. There's still great depth throughout the league, but the top of the board is a bit weakened. As of now, there likely wouldn't be a single one- or two-seed (the SEC had four total last season). I'm still expecting around 10 teams to get in, but it's certainly not last year's SEC.
