The Southern Methodist Mustangs take on the Clemson Tigers in Clemson, SC. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Clemson is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Clemson predictions and college basketball picks for January 7, 2026.
SMU vs Clemson Prediction
My Pick: Clemson -4.5 (Play to -6)
My SMU vs Clemson best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
SMU vs. Clemson Odds, Spread
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
- SMU vs Clemson spread: Clemson -4
- SMU vs Clemson over/under: 147.5 points
- SMU vs Clemson moneyline: SMU +155, Clemson -185
SMU vs Clemson NCAAB Betting Preview
Clemson steps into a classic buy-low, advantageous situational spot here, laying 4.5 against SMU. The Mustangs are coming off an emotional, program-level high: a home win over UNC that marked their first Quad 1 victory since 2022.
That kind of can set up a dangerous letdown, especially with Duke looming this weekend. This has all the makings of a sandwich game for an SMU team that emptied the tank to get that enormous home win on Saturday.
From a matchup perspective, there is one legitimate concern for Clemson backers. Brad Brownell’s defense leans heavily on drop coverage, and SMU’s roster is tailor-made to punish that.
Boopie Miller, Jaron Pierre, and BJ Edwards are elite mid-range shot-makers who thrive in space and are comfortable pulling up against the drop. Clemson is not switchable, so the Tigers cannot adjust coverage.
Fortunately, Clemson’s advantage via its frontcourt versatility offsets that vulnerability. Nick Davidson, RJ Godfrey, Carter Welling, and Jake Wahlin can really weaponize the other end of the floor. SMU center Samet Yigitoglu is a capable rim protector, but he’s far less comfortable when dragged away from the basket.
Clemson’s ability to pop bigs in high-low situations, let the bigs put the ball on the floor, and force Yigitoglu to defend laterally should open driving lanes and offensive rebounding opportunities.
Layer in Clemson’s experience (34th nationally in that stat, per KenPom) and physicality, especially compared to an SMU team in a highly tenuous schedule spot, and the Tigers are well-positioned to control this game. Laying 4.5 is reasonable in a spot where Clemson’s balance and situational edge should show.
My Pick: Clemson -4.5 (Play to -6)
