South Dakota State vs Denver Odds, Pick for Tuesday

South Dakota State and Denver meet Tuesday night to determine who will represent the Summit League in the NCAA Tournament.

A win for Denver would almost certainly result in a play-in 16-seed as well as the school’s first-ever bid to the Big Dance. For the Jackrabbits, their fate is likely somewhere on the 14- or 15-seed line.

This is Denver’s first-ever Summit final, as it's been a member since 2013-14. The Pioneers took down UMKC and Omaha to get here despite going 1-3 against those squads during the regular season.

South Dakota State is playing its best basketball, winning seven straight and nine of its last 10. On paper, this was supposed to be a dominant Summit squad and potentially one of head coach Eric Henderson’s better teams.

While the Bunnies didn’t look the part for most of the year, they're starting to round into form. Incredibly, this is just SDSU’s second Summit final under Henderson. The Jackrabbits won the conference tourney back in 2022.

Denver and SDSU split during the regular season, each blowing the other out on its home floor. With 100 spots separating the two teams on KenPom, this has the potential to be a non-competitive final. But this is March after all.

South Dakota State has been the class of the league all season and for the better part of a decade. The Jackrabbits have the best player in the conference in point guard Zeke Mayo and a deadly one-two frontcourt punch in William Kyle and Luke Appel.

SDSU’s offense is an efficient attack that plays through the post as much as anyone in the country. Appel and Kyle are the fulcrums inside, and former Wisconsin Badger Matthew Mors will see reps on the block off the bench.

Denver has decent size to defend the post, but it’s been largely a sieve at the rim, ranking 309th nationally in field goal percentage allowed, per Hoop-Math.

Mayo is one of the better attackers off ball screens in the country and will be a tough match for Denver’s perimeter. Charlie Easley can also put the ball on the floor and create off screens.

Denver has been poor defending the pick-and-roll all season and will be challenged to prevent penetration.

Like Denver, SDSU has plenty of shooting. Three snipers occupy spots in the starting five with Mayo, Easley and Matt Mims. Kalen Garry is a shooter off the pine, and Appel can stretch the floor from the frontcourt.

SDSU is so challenging to defend because it can beat opponents in multiple ways from all three levels: outside shooting, off the bounce and via the post.

Every team that makes it to a conference championship has a helping of luck on its side, and the Pios have had that in their opponents’ 3-point shooting. Omaha went just 6-for-24 from deep yesterday in the semifinals, and UMKC went 8-for-29 in the first round.

In conference play this season, Denver has allowed opponents to shoot a league-high 38.4% from deep.

Denver’s defense is the worst in the Summit and ranks dead last in 2-point field goal percentage allowed, 3-point field goal percentage allowed, and even free-throw percentage allowed — though that last one is no fault of its own.

Additionally, only one team in the league has allowed a higher free-throw attempt rate, and the Pios are the league’s second-worst defensive rebounding team.

Poor defense is a concern against one of the league’s best offensive teams in South Dakota State. Denver will need to win this game with its powerful offense and hope the 3-point variance continues to be in its favor.

Offensively, the Pios are led by Tommy Bruner, the nation’s leading scorer. The Summit’s fastest offense, Denver looks to push in transition where it ranks in the 74th percentile nationally in points per possession, per Synergy.

SDSU has been excellent this year and generally keeps opponents from running rampant, not overselling for offensive boards.

In the half-court, DU head coach Jeff Wulbrun deploys a motion attack featuring a heavy dose of hand-offs, cutting and ball screens for Bruner.

All five starters can shoot the 3 — the great equalizer in basketball. Outside shooting is where Denver can hurt SDSU. With the way it spaces the floor, Denver poses a major challenge to a Jackrabbit team that ranks in just the ninth percentile nationally defending spot-ups.

A shooting game like it had in the first matchup with SDSU — when it went 14-for-26 from 3 — could mean a bid to the Dance for Denver.

Since Feb. 1, SDSU is the nation’s 120th-best team, per Bart Torvik, a slight bump from where it currently sits overall. The Jackrabbits are rounding into form and beginning to show why they were expected to roll through the Summit in the preseason.

Meanwhile, Denver has been slipping, ranking just 302nd. After a 4-2 league start, the Pios went just 2-8 to close the regular season.

However, this is a really high spread for a championship game, and we’ve already seen some madness across the country in other leagues. SDSU has covered both of its Summit Tournament games thus far, winning both by double digits.

But a championship environment feels likely to yield a tighter contest.

Denver can keep this one close with its shooting ability and perhaps give the Jackrabbits a scare. Ultimately, SDSU should come out on top tonight, but expect the Pios to keep it within double digits and come to play.

Pick: Denver +10 (Play to +9)