The TCU Horned Frogs play the Duke Blue Devils in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament in Greenville, South Carolina, on Saturday, March 21. Tip-off is set for 5:15 p.m. ET on CBS.
Duke is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -800. Meanwhile, TCU enters as a +11.5 underdog with a moneyline of +540. The over/under sits at 139.5 total points.
Here’s my TCU vs. Duke prediction and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 21.
TCU vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: TCU +11
My TCU vs Duke best bet is on the Horned Frogs to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
TCU vs Duke Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 139.5 -115o / -105u | +540 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 139.5 -115o / -105u | -800 |
- TCU vs Duke Spread: Duke -11.5, TCU +11.5
- TCU vs Duke Over/Under: 139.5 Points
- TCU vs Duke Moneyline: TCU +540, Duke -800
TCU vs Duke NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
TCU Basketball
TCU held off Ohio State's second-half comeback thanks to Xavier Edmonds hitting the game-winning shot with 4.3 seconds left on Thursday.
With a 39-24 halftime lead, it seemed as if TCU was going to run away with it, but the Buckeyes came out of halftime countering the Horned Frogs' aggression by converting back-door layups to get back in the game.
Micah Robinson led the team with 18 points in the win, knocking down a season-high four 3s.
Robinson is a volatile scorer who shoots 34% off of catch-and-shoot jumpers while struggling around the rim, shooting 42% on layups.
TCU put a lot of pressure on Ohio State with its penetration in the paint. That led to open looks for shooters like Robinson on the perimeter in the first round.
David Punch is averaging 20 points per game over his last four outings and is coming off back-to-back double-doubles. His and Edmonds' ability to guard the perimeter is pivotal to TCU's success, as he's athletic enough to blitz opposing teams' ball-handlers.
Liutauras Lelevicius and Tanner Toolson were the only two players to come off the bench in the first round, with Lelevicius providing the only bench points with four.
On the season, he ranks in the 92nd percentile on spot-up jumpers, shooting 42% from 3.
Duke Basketball
Duke had to rally from an 11-point halftime deficit to beat 16-seed Siena on Thursday. The Blue Devils had to go to zone in the second half to slow down Siena's offensive flow, allowing Duke to get back into the game.
Cayden Boozer continues to step up in the absence of Caleb Foster, averaging 17 points on 53% from the field in his last three games.
His ability to get downhill and finish in the paint has been pivotal to Duke's offensive success. Where he ' at his best is getting to his floater, shooting 60% to rank in the 95th percentile.
Teams have done a good job frustrating Cam Boozer in the last two games, forcing him to shoot 7-of-28 from the field and 1-of-10 from 3 with eight turnovers.
If Pat Ngongba is healthy enough to play a little bit, he'll help take some pressure off of Boozer. If Ngongba isn't good to go, then Nik Khamenia and Maliq Brown will have to step up to take pressure off Boozer around the paint.
Though the zone worked against Siena, it's not an encouraging sign to see a 1-seed have to zone up a 16-seed.
For Duke to get back to its dominant ways, it'll need to get back to its discipline and activity on the defensive end. That starts with Dame Sarr's ability to disrupt opposing point guards.
When Sarr provides consistent on-ball pressure, it allows others to play aggressively in the passing lanes and create turnover opportunities.
Offensively, Sarr has been ice cold from 3 in the last four games, shooting 2-of-17. When his defense sets the tone, it has often helped his confidence on the offensive end.
TCU vs Duke Pick, Betting Analysis
Duke head coach Jon Scheyer said in his postgame interview that he was out-coached against a Siena team that played five players for all 40 minutes.
The Blue Devils can't afford to play sloppily against TCU, or they'll be bounced out of the second round.
TCU is going to do its best to make Cayden Boozer uncomfortable by blitzing Duke's ball screens while doubling Cam Boozer in the post and forcing him to throw risky cross-court skip passes.
Duke has proven to burn aggressive defenses with its off-ball cutting and can do that against TCU.
The question for Duke is, can it get off to a good start and not allow TCU's aggressiveness to dictate the game?
Duke wins, but TCU keeps it close.
My Pick: TCU +11
