The Texas Tech Red Raiders play the Alabama Crimson Tide in the second round of the NCAA Tournament from Tampa, Florida. Tip-off is set for 9:45 p.m. ET on TBS.
Alabama is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -110. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is the underdog at +1.5 with a moneyline of -110. The total is set at 164.5 points.
Here’s my Texas Tech vs. Alabama predictions and college basketball picks for March 22, 2026.
Texas Tech vs Alabama Prediction
My Pick: Alabama -1.5 (Play to -3)
My Texas Tech vs Alabama best bet is on the Crimson Tide to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas Tech vs Alabama Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -124 | 164.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 164.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
- Texas Tech vs Alabama spread: Alabama -1.5
- Texas Tech vs Alabama over/under: 164.5 points
- Texas Tech vs Alabama moneyline: Texas Tech -110, Alabama -110
Texas Tech vs Alabama College Basketball Betting Preview
Well, here we have a game between two short-handed teams for a Sweet 16 berth. Texas Tech is missing first-team All-American JT Toppin, and Alabama is without 16 point-per-game scorer Aden Holloway.
Since Texas Tech lost Toppin, it went all out on shooting 3s, hitting triples at a 42% clip and taking them 51% of the time.
Three of the five starters for the Red Raiders contribute to that perimeter dominance.
Christian Anderson is the go-to guy, leading Texas Tech with 18.9 points and 7.6 assists per game while shooting 42% from 3. Donovan Atwell is the next sniper and maybe the best shooter in college hoops. He shoots 45% from 3 and boasts the third-best offensive rating (ORTG) in the country.
Freshman guard Jaylen Petty shoots 38% from deep and erupted for 24 points in the Round of 64.
Not having Toppin is felt more on the defensive end, as Texas Tech is 117th in defensive efficiency in those seven games. Opponents are shooting 51% from 2-point range on the Toppin-less Red Raiders interior.
Plus, Tech is giving up offensive rebounds at a 33.8% clip, much worse than its 30.8% number for the season.
Grant McCasland is getting creative with his lineups. In the Akron game, he went super small with 6-foot-6 LeJuan Watts at the five and Josiah Moseley at the four for segments. We'll see if that works here, but I'm skeptical. This Texas Tech team has zero depth, though. Either Luke Bamgboye plays the entire game, or Tech has to play small.
Meanwhile, Alabama got a real scare from Hofstra in the first half of its Round of 64 game. The Pride led 28-18 late in the half, but Alabama wound up leading at the break and won by 20. A few times, Alabama went on huge runs to change the game, and that's why it's such a scary team.
Labaron Philon Jr. erupted for 28 points with eight rebounds and seven assists. I don't have a stat to back up this statement, but nobody is better at exposing mismatches than Philon. If a big gets stuck on him, it's game over.
He stepped up without Holloway and will need to do so again. Latrell Wrightsell also scored 11 points, but he went just 2-for-8 from deep.
Nobody shoots 3s more than Alabama, attempting them at a 53.7% rate. The Crimson Tide make 35% of them and shoot 57.2% on 2s. Philon is a maestro at scoring inside and also creates countless good looks with his playmaking.
On the defensive end, Alabama ranks 65th in defensive efficiency, yet it holds teams to 48% shooting on the interior (45th). The Tide can give up 3s, as opponents shoot 33% from deep on them, but they only allow 3-point shots 35% of the time.
It all boils down to rebounding. Alabama gives up offensive boards 32.7% of the time (289th). Without Toppin, Texas Tech fell from 89th to 130th in offensive rebounding rate.
Plus, with Alabama's height advantage, that should help.
Aidan Sherrell is 6-foot-11, Amari Allen is 6-foot-8 and Taylor Bol Bowen is 6-foot-10. That towers over a much smaller Texas Tech squad with no depth and injuries.
So, ultimately, give me Alabama -1.5. Expect a lot of deep range looks, but Alabama can control the pace, and I'm not sure Texas Tech can.
Slowing down the Crimson Tide is a tough ask.
My Pick: Alabama -1.5 (Play to -3)
