The Troy Trojans play the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 12:40 p.m. ET on TruTV.
Nebraska is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1250. Meanwhile, Troy is the underdog at +12.5 with a moneyline of +740. The total is set at 137.5 points.
Here’s my Troy vs. Nebraska predictions and college basketball picks for March 19, 2026.
Troy vs Nebraska Prediction
My Pick: Troy +12.5 (Play to +11)
My Troy vs Nebraska best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Troy vs. Nebraska Odds
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -102 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | +740 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -120 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | -1250 |
- Troy vs Nebraska spread: Nebraska -12.5
- Troy vs Nebraska over/under: 137.5 points
- Troy vs Nebraska moneyline: Troy +740, Nebraska -1250
Troy vs Nebraska College Basketball Betting Preview
Nebraska Basketball
Nebraska is hoping to secure its first NCAA Tournament win ever. The Cornhuskers will have their best chance in this matchup against Troy, coming in as 13.5-point favorites in a 13 vs. 4 matchup.
The Cornhuskers started the season with a 20-0 record and finished the season with a 6-6 mark. In the final 12 games of the season, Nebraska finished 112th in offensive efficiency, per T-Rank.
Fred Hoiberg's squad is all about shooting. During the cold stretch, it attempted 3s at a 50% rate and made 34% of them. The good thing is the Huskers are shooting 54% on 2s during that time.
However, most of the team does its work around the perimeter. The bigs are looking to screen and shoot most of the time, and the roster lacks a true back-to-the-basket option.
The offense usually runs through big man Rienk Mast. He can pass, operate in dribble handoffs and takes closer to five 3s per game. Mobile bigs can limit Mast a bit, so we'll see if Troy's fleet of foot bigs can handle him.
Mast is one of three Nebraska players who average 10+ points per game. The other two are Pryce Sandfort, a 6-foot-7 sharpshooter who demands the defense's attention, and freshman Braden Frager. Frager is solid, but he's a bit streaky and plays 20 minutes per night.
Here's why I'll caution you on taking Nebraska here: The Cornhuskers allowed opponents to shoot 53% on 2s (315th) in their final 11 games. Plus, they rank 163rd in defensive rebound rate.
On the flip side, Nebraska holds teams to 28% shooting from deep, and teams shoot 3s at a 49% clip against it. Perimeter defense can be a skill, but elite defenses tend to defend the rim well.
Nebraska is ninth in defensive efficiency, but I don't value this unit as a top-10 defense. It holds teams to 29% from deep (a top-10 mark in the country), and teams attempt 3s at a 49% rate. That's unsustainable to me and leaves more up to luck than teams who defend the rim well.
Things shift a bit if Nebraska can force turnovers. It has some feisty guards in Sam Hoiberg and Jamarques Lawrence, who love to swipe the ball away, which leads to a 19% turnover rate.
Troy Basketball
One thing I try to look for in mid-major teams that can win a game is how they perform against better teams in the non-conference slate. As for Troy, it beat San Diego State and lost in three overtimes to USC. That makes me feel optimistic about Troy battling here.
The worry is that Troy is a bad shooting team. It shoots 3s at a 45% rate and makes just 32% of them. That's not a good ratio, but it'll have chances to shoot 3s against Nebraska. Perhaps the Trojans get hot.
Scott Cross can rely on a pair of twin snipers, Cobi and Cooper Campbell, who each shoot close to 40% from deep. The bigs can shoot a bit, too. Theo Seng should be back, and he's a better shooter than Jerrell Bellamy. Thomas Dowd is also a shooting option at the four.
I think Troy can also take advantage of Nebraska on the glass. It grabs misses at a 34.8% rate and might have better rebounding bigs than Nebraska.
The real X-factor is 6-foot-7 point guard Victor Valdes. Yes, Troy has two smaller guards in the Campbell's, but Valdes does most of the ball-handling and half-court operation. He shoots just 21% from deep, but he can use his size and playmaking to score and pass against the smaller Nebraska guards.
On the defensive end, Troy holds opponents to 32% from deep, but just 52% on 2s. Nebraska will be able to score at the rim on Troy, but I don't think the Cornhuskers will hunt much interior scoring.
Troy vs Nebraska Pick, Betting Analysis
I'll take the points, as I think Troy has the goods to upset Nebraska.
The moneyline could be worth a small sprinkle.
I don't have much faith in Nebraska and I see some key advantages that give Troy a shot.
My Pick: Troy +12.5 (Play to +11)
