The UCF Knights take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater, OK. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Oklahoma State is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155. The total is set at 174.5 points.
Here’s my UCF vs. Oklahoma State predictions and college basketball picks for January 6, 2026.
UCF vs Oklahoma State Prediction
My Pick: Oklahoma State -3.5
My UCF vs Oklahoma State best bet is on the Cowboys to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UCF vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Spread
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 174.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 174.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
- UCF vs Oklahoma State spread: Oklahoma State -2.5
- UCF vs Oklahoma State over/under: 174.5 points
- UCF vs Oklahoma State moneyline: UCF +130, Oklahoma State -155
UCF vs Oklahoma State NCAAB Betting Preview
After a 12-1 start, UCF has entered the AP Poll as the 25th-ranked team nationally. The Knights' lone loss came in their second game of the season, meaning they've won 11 straight, including victories over Kansas and Texas A&M.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are also a strong 12-2, with their two losses coming against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Steve Lutz's team also has a win over Texas A&M and Northwestern in the CBS Sports Thanksgiving Classic.
While these teams seem even based on record and results, KenPom has the Knights more than 20 spots higher than the Cowboys in his power ratings, signaling that they're the better team metrics-wise.
However, Evan Abrams' Bet Labs featured system — “Good Team, Conf, Small Fav, Both Teams Bad ATS” — says that the play for this game is on the Cowboys to cover the spread as a short home favorite.
The “Good Team, Conf, Small Fav, Both Teams Bad ATS” system identifies undervalued favorites in college basketball who win consistently but have struggled against the spread (Oklahoma State is 6-8 ATS this season), facing opponents with similar ATS struggles (UCF is 7-6 ATS).
In conference play, where matchups are familiar and motivation runs high, the better overall team often prevails despite market skepticism caused by prior spread losses.
While the Cowboys wouldn't be the better team on a neutral court (hence the KenPom numbers), home-court advantage must be factored in. Lutz's group is 10-0 at Gallagher-Iba Arena this season.
When a strong team sits as a small favorite, it suggests the line has tightened due to mutual ATS underperformance rather than true competitive balance.
This system capitalizes on that overcorrection, backing reliable programs that win outright at a steady rate when the market perception has dipped too far, turning short favorites into profitable plays.
Also, this system has a 3% return on investment (ROI) since its inception and a remarkable 30% ROI (11-2 overall record) in 2025-26 alone, making this a nice value play.
My Pick: Oklahoma State -3.5
