The UNC Tar Heels take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, Texas. Tip-off is set for 2:15 p.m. ET on The CW Network.
UNC is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 153.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. SMU prediction and college basketball picks for January 3, 2026.
UNC vs SMU Prediction
My Pick: UNC -1.5 (Play to -3)
My UNC vs SMU best bet is on the Tar Heels to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs. SMU Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
- UNC vs SMU spread: UNC -1.5
- UNC vs SMU over/under: 153.5 points
- UNC vs SMU moneyline: UNC -115, SMU -105
UNC vs SMU College Basketball Betting Preview
UNC Basketball
UNC is quietly 13-1 this season with a current six-game winning streak. The Tar Heels already have one true road win over Kentucky and will look to add another in Dallas.
The biggest advantage for the Heels in the Ohio State win will play a huge role against SMU. They held Ohio State to 48% shooting on 2s, and you can draw some similarities between the two teams in terms of guard play.
The Tar Heels hold opponents to 40% shooting from inside the arc, so the rim dominance is nothing new. Caleb Wilson is among the best defenders in the country, recording 3.0 stocks per game, and Henri Veesaar adds a block a night.
Hubert Davis will devise a plan to force SMU into taking tough 2s. The Mustangs are more than willing to shoot deep 2-pointers, as they rank 310th in average 2-point distance, per KenPom.
How can the Heels win on the road? Establishing their bigs on the offensive end.
Scoring is a bit of a chore for this UNC squad, ranking 47th in offensive efficiency. The best path to solving the woes is letting Wilson dominate Corey Washington, a 6-foot-6 power forward.
I'd also expect a steady diet of pick-and-pops. Veesaar is a huge mismatch versus bigger, slower centers, and SMU has one in Samet Yigitoglu. The 7-footer from Estonia boasts the versatility to dominate and put SMU's bigs in a blender.
Guard play remains a bit of a concern, and it shows in the shooting numbers. Davis rotates through four guards (Derek Dixon, Kyan Evans, Luka Bogavac, Jonathan Powell), and none have emerged as a must-start option.
With Bogavac, Powell and Evans shooting below 34% from deep, UNC's 32% 3-point percentage comes into context.
SMU Basketball
SMU is certainly in the NCAA Tournament discussion, but the committee needs a reason to include it. Winning potential Quad 1 games at home would be a huge help.
The Mustangs rely heavily on their offense, ranking 27th in offensive efficiency. They're 300th in 3-point attempt rate, with 33.9% of their shots coming from deep. The DNA of SMU is scoring inside the arc, as it shoots 57.8% on 2s.
To put up a good enough offensive showing to beat UNC, Andy Enfield will need his guards to dominate.
Boopie Miller is the catalyst for the Stangs. He's one of the better point guards in the ACC, averaging 19.9 points and 7.2 assists per game. Not only is he a dominant scorer, but Miller shoots an efficient 47% from the field and 42% from deep.
His backcourt mates — Jaron Pierre Jr. and B.J. Edwards — have to show up, too. Pierre sits at 18.3 points and is a dynamic shot-creator, but he shoots just 32% from deep. Edwards isn't a great shooter either, so that's a potential issue to watch from that duo.
Enfield's squad is a bit of a mess on the defensive end. Opponents hit 50% from inside the arc against it, which ranks 143rd nationally.
Another concern tied to defense is rebounding, as SMU allows offensive rebounds at a 31% clip.
UNC vs. SMU Betting Analysis
I'll go with the Tar Heels on the road. SMU deserves credit for taking care of business in the non-conference, but this is a horrific matchup against a better team.
The reason for backing UNC is way deeper than it being a straight-up better team. The Tar Heels' length is terrifying, as they have the second-tallest average height, per KenPom.
UNC can scheme around Yigitoglu and his 7-foot-2 frame, and Wilson could pop off for 25+ points in this one.
My Pick: UNC -1.5 (Play to -3)
