The UNC Tar Heels take on the Stanford Cardinal in Stanford, California. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
UNC is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. The total is set at 141.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. Stanford prediction and college basketball picks for January 14, 2026.
UNC vs Stanford Prediction
My Pick: UNC -2 (Play to -3.5)
My UNC vs Stanford best bet is on the Tar Heels to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs. Stanford Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -115 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -105 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- UNC vs Stanford spread: UNC -2
- UNC vs Stanford over/under: 141.5 points
- UNC vs Stanford moneyline: UNC -140, Stanford +120
UNC vs Stanford College Basketball Betting Preview
UNC Basketball
UNC has looked somewhat disappointing thus far in conference play, going 0-3 ATS in ACC play.
The Tar Heels' once-elite defense has tapered off in the last two games. Wake Forest scored 84 points and tallied 1.18 points per possession, while SMU scored 93 with a whopping 1.40 PPP.
You can chalk some of the defensive issues to bad luck. 3-point defense is as variable a stat as you'll find, and SMU shot 51% from deep and Wake Forest shot 40%.
Now, both teams shot well from 2-point range, but on very low volume. The lack of volume is due to North Carolina's rim-defending dominance. It holds opponents to 42% shooting from inside the arc.
The Tar Heels rank second nationally in average 2-point field goal distance, as the tandem of Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar serves as a deterrent for teams that want to attack the hoop.
I expect North Carolina to be a top-20 level defense moving forward.
On the flip side, North Carolina has some clear offensive issues. It needs to focus on playing more inside-out due to some pretty severe guard problems. The Heels attempt 3s on 42% of their shots and hit just 33% on them.
None of the guards Hubert Davis brought in have been any good. Kyan Evans shoots 35% from the field and 31% from deep. Luka Bogavac and Jonathan Powell have also shot terribly from downtown thus far.
Good thing Davis can rely on his two stud forwards to offset the guard scoring a bit.
Stanford Basketball
Stanford is a tough team to figure out. The Cardinal finally snagged a huge win over Louisville, but their two games against Notre Dame and Virginia — where they scored less than 60 points — leave a sour taste in my mouth.
One thing is clear: Stanford only has one reliable scorer. That is freshman phenom Ebuka Okorie, who leads the Cardinal with 22 points per game. For further context on Okorie's importance, he had his four worst games of the season in Stanford's four losses. He shot worse than 33% from the field in all of them.
I'd argue nobody in the ACC is more important to a team's success than Okorie.
In general, Stanford's offense is nothing to write home about. It ranks 104th in offensive efficiency, while shooting 49% from 2 and 33% from deep.
The only other two double-digit scorers are veteran sniper Benny Gealer and big man Chisom Okpara. Okpara will struggle against Wilson, but Gealer has the gravity as a shooter to scare teams.
Kyle Smith is used to making the most of lesser talented roster. And the one swing stat he uses this season is pressuring to force turnovers, as the Cardinal create giveaways 20% of the time.
Their field goal defense is a bit dicey, though.
UNC vs. Stanford Betting Analysis
I'm laying the points here with North Carolina. I know traveling as far as this game is could be tough, but the Heels are the way more talented team.
North Carolina should be able to keep Okorie from driving and drawing fouls. If Okorie is neutralized, Stanford will have to rely on Gealer and Jeremy Dent-Smith to shoot it well from deep.
This feels like a good time to jump on the UNC train.
My Pick: UNC -2 (Play to -3.5)
