The Utah State Aggies play the Arizona Wildcats in the second round of the NCAA Tournament from San Diego, California. Tip-off is set for 7:50 p.m. ET on TruTV.
Arizona is favored by -11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -800. Meanwhile, Utah State is the underdog at +11.5 with a moneyline of +550. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my Utah State vs. Arizona predictions and college basketball picks for March 22, 2026.
Utah State vs Arizona Prediction
My Pick: Arizona -11.5
My Utah State vs Arizona best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Utah State vs Arizona Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -105 | 154.5 -115o / -105u | +550 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -115 | 154.5 -115o / -105u | -800 |
- Utah State vs Arizona spread: Arizona -11.5
- Utah State vs Arizona over/under: 156.5 points
- Utah State vs Arizona moneyline: Utah State +550, Arizona -800
Utah State vs Arizona College Basketball Betting Preview
Utah State is a top-30 team in the country and beat Villanova in the Round of 64, but this is a different test. That first-round win was a tight one over Villanova, and it's the only top-30 win of the season for the Aggies.
From a schematic standpoint, Utah State plays some really crisp basketball. The passing and playmaking from the Aggies' players lead to open shots inside, as they shoot 59% on 2s.
Jerrod Calhoun is great at drawing up plays for his stars, MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev. Collins leads the team with 17.7 points per game and shot 49% from the field. Falslev is a bit old school. He's selective in shooting 3s, but he loves scoring inside and has excellent touch.
Shooting can be an issue, and we saw that in the Round of 64 when they went 2-for-16 from deep. Drake Allen hits just 32% from 3, and Falslev shoots a good percentage, but not many of them. None of the bigs are too dangerous as shooters, and Adlan Elamin is at 32%. Collins is the one consistent shooter.
My biggest concern for Utah State is rebounding. The Aggies give up offensive rebounds at a concerning 32% clip, and that should creep up here.
In general, Utah State is 43rd in defensive efficiency. However, the lack of rebounding and constant fouling holds the Aggies back.
Meanwhile, Arizona did what a one-seed should do to a 16-seed — win the game by halftime. The Wildcats led LIU by 34 at the half and won by 42.
I think the Wildcats have the size to make life tough on Utah State. They grab offensive rebounds at a 38% clip, ranking sixth nationally. Nobody on the Aggies' roster can match the size of 7-foot-2 center, Mo Krivas. Arizona can also put Tobe Awaka in — the best offensive rebounder in the country — and projected first-round pick, Koa Peat.
Good luck scoring inside on the Cats. They rank third in defensive efficiency, largely thanks to holding teams to 43% shooting on 2s. Jaden Bradley is one of the top point guard defenders in the country, and he should defend Falslev. That'll force the guard who loves to drive to float around the perimeter.
My one question for Arizona is shooting. It attempts 3s at a 26% rate, which is just crazy for a team to be this good and shoot that little from deep. The thing is, Arizona spends most of its time dominating the offensive glass and reaching the foul line, so it hasn't needed to shoot more.
This tournament has been the tournament of chalk thus far. Duke beat TCU by 20+ and Michigan beat Saint Louis by 20+, so why can't Arizona do the same to an inferior foe? This game feels similar to the Saint Louis/Michigan game to me.
Utah State has to play a different level of size and physicality than it's used to. That'll play a role in the Cats covering.
My Pick: Arizona -11.5
