The Utah State Aggies take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, California. Tip-off is set for 11 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
San Diego State is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -110. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here’s my Utah State vs. San Diego State prediction and college basketball picks for February 26, 2026.
Utah State vs San Diego State Prediction
My Pick: Utah State ML -110
My Utah State vs San Diego State best bet is on the Aggies on the moneyline. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Utah State vs. San Diego State Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 147.5 -110 / -110 | -110 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 147.5 -110 / -110 | -110 |
- Utah State vs San Diego State spread: San Diego State -1
- Utah State vs San Diego State over/under: 147.5 points
- Utah State vs San Diego State moneyline: Utah State -110, San Diego State -110
Utah State vs San Diego State College Basketball Betting Preview
Utah State Basketball
Utah State is in the midst of a brutal road swing. It felt inevitable that the Aggies would drop at least one of the two games against Nevada and San Diego State, and they already lost in Reno on Saturday.
The Aggies' offense is the clear strength of the team, ranking 21st in efficiency.
They shoot a stout 60% from 2-point range, a top-10 mark in the country, and 36.2% from downtown. Mason Falslev and MJ Collins are the go-to guys for Utah State, as both are averaging over 16 points per game and shoot over 50% from the field. Those two are the only double-digit scorers on this Aggies roster.
Another strong aspect of the Aggies' attack is their ability to crash the boards. They grab 34.8% of their missed shots with bigs Garry Clark and Karson Templin each posting offensive rebound rates above 12%. Clark is a sparkplug for this Aggies squad, ranking 18th in offensive rebound rate.
Defensively, the Aggies are an interesting team. They're 35th in defensive efficiency, but you have to feel good about the way this defense attacks. Jerrod Calhoun primarily uses a matchup zone, with the main goal being forcing turnovers and limiting scoring at the rim.
Those are both huge strengths for the Aggies, as they force turnovers 20% of the time and hold teams to 47% shooting on 2s.
San Diego State Basketball
San Diego State is among the most disappointing teams in the country — a team that returned a bunch of proven producers that's been virtually the exact same team that it was last year.
A season ago, the Aztecs made the tournament as one of the last four teams, and this squad seems destined for a similar result.
Brian Dutcher is a defensive tactician who will have the Aztecs as a top-25 defensive team until he retires. They rank 17th in defensive efficiency this season, while forcing turnovers 21% of the time and holding opponents to 46% on 2s.
The length and versatility of San Diego State's defense is why opponents attempt 3s on 48% of their shots, which is 358th out of 365 teams.
The only thing keeping San Diego State from top-10 defensive territory is rebounding. The Aztecs give up offensive rebounds on 30% of misses, and the second shot is a danger to any defense.
The issue for the Aztecs? Scoring. They rank 108th in offensive efficiency and lack a true go-to guy. Reese Dixon-Waters leads San Diego State with 12 points per game, but he shoots just 34% from downtown.
Miles Byrd, an athletic wing who tested the NBA waters, remains a project. The idea of Byrd is much better than the reality because he shoots 41% from the field. That issue also affects BJ Davis, the third-leading scorer for San Diego State.
The interior situation is odd, too. Magoon Gwath looked ready to make a leap, but he's been worse than last season and seems to be losing minutes to Tae Simmons. Miles Heide stole Gwath's starting role, and now Simmons is stealing the backup role.
In this matchup, the Aztecs' poor decision-making could sting them. They turn the ball over 17.5% of the time, and that has to have Utah State ready to feast.
Utah State vs. San Diego State Betting Analysis
I think I'm just out on San Diego State. I know, winning at Viejas is tough. This team just isn't very good and needs everything to go right defensively to beat a team of Utah State's caliber.
The Aggies' ability to handle the ball with Drake Allen and Falslev should force the Aztecs to operate in a half-court offensive setting.
That would be perfect for Utah State.
My Pick: Utah State ML -110
