NCAAB Odds, Pick for Utah vs USC: Roll With Road Team

The Utah Utes could really use a win in the worst way, and they head to Southern California to face the USC Trojans.

The Utes lost a pair of home games against Arizona State and Arizona in the past week.

Utah's defense had a rough showing in the two games, allowing over 1.10 points per possession. The biggest issue — namely against ASU — stems from defending guard penetration.

Arizona State's Jose Perez made a living inside, and that's good news for USC's Isaiah Collier, who loves attacking the paint with his similar build and explosiveness.

Branden Carlson is an absolute star for the Utes. The seven-footer averages over 17 points, seven rebounds and two blocks per contest. He could take advantage of USC's defense, shooting over smaller players at the four.

Coach Craig Smith mainly uses Carlson next to Lawson Lovering or Keba Keita at the five, so the size advantage is in Utah's favor.

In this matchup, Gabe Madsen could prove to be a huge X-factor.

The sharpshooter wing will look to flush his 2-of-11 shooting night against ASU on Saturday. Since USC's perimeter defense is terrible, Madsen could find scoring lanes off the catch, coming off screens. He's shooting over 40% from 3 this year on nearly seven attempts per contest.

Utah is terrific at not sending teams to the free-throw line, ranking top-15 in free throws allowed. Against Collier and the Trojans, Utah finding ways to not foul will be huge.

Considering the lofty preseason expectations, USC is arguably the most disappointing team in America. Most people assumed the Trojans' chances of winning the Pac-12 were better than their chances of missing the NCAA tournament.

Not only will USC miss the Big Dance — barring a stunning run in the Pac-12 Tournament — but it might be the conference's worst team.

USC hasn't gotten strong play from Boogie Ellis lately, as he's scored eight or fewer points in four of the past five games. He hasn't looked good in his final college season, and he's mostly chucking up ugly shots.

Ellis received the Pac-12 Preseason Player of the Year award for good reason, but he's just another part of USC's problems right now.

Collier is the one potential saving grace. The star freshman scored 38 points in games against Stanford and California in his return from an eight-game injury hiatus. Despite returning, USC still lost both games, including a 30+ point defeat against Stanford.

In that loss, USC surrendered 90+ points against the Cardinal, as defense is the overwhelming issue for the Trojans.

While Andy Enfield is known for his defensive chops, they aren't preforming on that end of the floor this season. The Trojans' defense allows 3s at an alarming rate of 37%. That's a disastrous formula against Utah.

How much does USC care at this point? The effort level is not on par with what we'll see from Utah in this matchup.

Based on Utah's strong offensive prowess against the lousy USC defense, I'll roll with the road favorites.

I'm reluctant to say a college basketball team besides DePaul "quit," but it seems like the Trojans largely have given up.

I can't back the Trojans in this spot against a team that actually has something to play for.

Pick: Utah PK (Play to -4)