The Virginia Cavaliers take on the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee on Tuesday, Feb. 10. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Virginia is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -345. Florida State, meanwhile, enters as a +7.5 underdog and is +275 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 150.5 total points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. Florida State prediction and college basketball picks for Tuesday, February 10.
Virginia vs Florida State Prediction
My Pick: Under 150.5 (Play to 148)
My Virginia vs Florida State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Virginia vs Florida State Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -112 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -345 |
| Florida St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -108 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
- Virginia vs Florida State Spread: Virginia -7.5
- Virginia vs Florida State Over/Under: 150.5 points
- Virginia vs Florida State Moneyline: Virginia -345, Florida State +275
Virginia vs Florida State College Basketball Betting Preview
Virginia Basketball
Virginia is an extremely balanced team, ranking in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive rating, per KenPom.
The Cavaliers can score inside and out on offense, and different lineup constructions allow head coach Ryan Odom to vary their defensive approach, as well.
That has helped the Hoos pick up some massive road wins this year: at Texas, at NC State, at Louisville and at SMU.
The Cavaliers are elite in a couple of key areas that fuel that road success.
First, they're lethal on the offensive glass, ranking third nationally in offensive rebound rate, per KenPom. That establishes a high floor for the attack, giving them constant second chances even when their jumpers are not falling.
They're also outstanding at defending the rim, ranking seventh nationally in block rate while allowing just 56.4% shooting there, per CBB Analytics. That rate puts them in the 94th percentile nationally.
The towering center tandem of Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso is the engine behind both of those attributes. Both are long-armed, high-effort pieces who don't need many offensive touches to impact the game.
Belgian forward Thijs De Ridder is also a force on the boards, and his mismatch offensive game has made him an instant star in the ACC.
Odom’s roster construction this offseason was sublime because he surrounded that interior group with skilled guards who can create and shoot.
Fifth-year scoring wing Malik Thomas and freshman point guard dynamo Chance Mallory are the highlights, but Virginia also gets steady contributions from Dallin Hall and Sam Lewis.
Plus, there’s always a chance Jacari White explodes; he’s a stick of dynamite off the bench who's rounding into form after missing five games in December and January.
Florida State Basketball
Like Virginia, Florida State underwent a coaching change this offseason.
While the Seminoles haven't immediately vaulted into the national picture, new boss Luke Loucks has quickly established a competitive structure.
FSU nearly won at Florida way back in November, and it has now won four of its last five ACC contests, including wins over NCAA Tournament hopefuls Miami and Cal.
Loucks took a specific approach in his roster building via the transfer portal.
The ‘Noles have impressive positional size on the perimeter, and nearly every member of the regular rotation is a threat from long distance. That allows FSU to space the court, though the roster does lack some interior fortitude.
Point guard Robert McCray is the straw that stirs the drink offensively. The 6-foot-4 slasher ranks fourth nationally in assist rate (44.9%), per KenPom, and Loucks’ spread pick-and-roll attack with heavy NBA influence (he was an assistant for the Sacramento Kings) relies on him bending opposing defenses.
Versatile wing/forwards Chauncey Wiggins and Lajae Jones help provide that spacing, and Jones has some real mettle to him as a defender, as well.
Mid-major transfer guards Kobe MaGee and Martin Somerville are most known for their lethal marksmanship; they have taken a combined 267 3s compared to just 72 2s.
Interior defense is a weak spot. Alex Steen is incredibly active but undersized, and FSU ranks 264th nationally (14th in the ACC) in 2-point percentage on defense.
Long-armed sophomore Alier Maluk has completely fallen out of the rotation, removing the Seminoles' best shot-blocker.
Virginia vs. Florida State Betting Analysis
Virginia is the clear better team, but you could argue that FSU is on a better trajectory right now. The Seminoles have gone 4-1 against the spread in their last five, a healthy amount better than Virginia’s own 1-4 mark.
For that reason, I’m not going to lay 7.5 on the road with the Hoos.
The angle I prefer here is the under, as Virginia has done a tremendous job controlling pace in ACC play.
Eight of UVA’s last 10 games have gone under the total, as the Cavs’ imposing interior and disciplined transition defense have throttled the tempo and forced opponents to execute in the half-court.
FSU, meanwhile, has been playing much slower in league play, as well. For the season, their average possession length on offense is 15.3 seconds, per KenPom. Against ACC foes, that rises to 16.7 seconds — a much larger slowdown than the national average.
For these reasons, I expect pace to land below the projection of 69 possessions.
The under bet should come down to efficiency. FSU will fire away from deep to avoid the Cavs’ shot-blockers inside, but Virginia has forced difficult jumpers all season long. Foes are shooting just 30% from deep for the year, and that number has dropped below 30 in ACC play.
With the total sitting north of 150, I think the under is a strong play based on both pace and expected efficiency. I would still bet it down to 148, should the market side with me.
My Pick: Under 150.5 (Play to 148)
