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2026 NCAA Tournament Live Bracket Reveal: How to Bet Every Game

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We've finally reached the moment all college basketball fans have been dreaming about since last April: the NCAA Tournament. It's time for the field of 68.

And we have you covered with betting analysis, predictions and more during (and after) the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket reveal. So, here's how to bet every game.

Editor's Note: This will be continuously updated throughout the bracket reveal (and afterwards).


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First Four


First Four

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(16) UMBC vs. (16) Howard

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(11) Texas vs. (11) NC State

Texas finds itself in its second First Four appearance in a row after using a midseason run to break into this year’s bracket.

The Longhorns also aren’t in their best form, losing five of their last six games and three straight.

But Texas might be in a good enough spot to illicit a play.

While just 18-14, it played in the SEC, where five teams in the top 25 reside. The Horns own the 13th-best offense in terms of efficiency in the country. Their defense has had trouble lately, but they’re built to put together a run in March. They rank fourth in experience, according to KenPom.

NC State also played in a conference with Duke, which some believe is the best team in the nation. Maybe it’s the No. 1 overall seed that has people believing that.

But NC State will have the ability to dictate the pace and flow of this game. Texas gets uncomfortable when opponents speed it up, which is why it’s outside the top 200 in adjusted pace. NC State ranks 86th in that category.

This game could also provide a Cinderella, as five teams from the First Four have made the Sweet 16, with two of them making the Final Four.

Jonathan Jorcin

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(16) Prairie View A&M vs. (16) Lehigh

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(11) Miami (OH) vs. (11) SMU

Miami (OH) routinely gave up point totals in the high 70s and 80s against MAC-level competition, and I can see

Andy Enfield and the Ponies ramping up the tempo here to make this game a track meet, where its athleticism should take over.

SMU is just going to have too much strength in the post with Samet Yigitoglu and Jaden Toombs. It should get to the rim whenever it feels like it here.

I expect this game to be played in excess of 80 total possessions.

Miami isn’t going to have many offensive rebounds or second-chance opportunities here, so the shooters are going to have to be completely dialed in for Miami to stand a chance. Fifteen 3-pointers are going to have to be knocked down, as the RedHawks are going to be largely ineffective trying to find touches in the paint. SMU will win the war on the block.

The Mustangs are going to seek to run out on misses, and I expect them to have plenty of run-out opportunities here.

Getting B.J. Edwards back is going to add a huge level of potency to SMU’s offense, and I expect this group to put up a big number against the RedHawks.

I laid -7.5 (-105) right away at DraftKings and will seek to bet the SMU team total over as well.

Joshua Nunn



East Region

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(1) Duke vs. (16) Siena

Duke is the top overall seed and the top-rated team in KenPom entering the tournament.

However, the Blue Devils could be short-handed, as point guard Caleb Foster is out, and big man Patrick Ngongba is questionable.

Still, the Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament without that pair.

Cam Boozer is the best player in the country, averaging 22 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. His ability to handle the ball, dish to shooters, and score for himself will be something Siena hasn’t seen all year.

Duke will have a significant length advantage. It’s the second-tallest team nationally (per KenPom’s average height metric), while Siena ranks 278th in that metric.

Siena played just one high-major opponent all season, losing to Indiana — which didn’t make the tournament — by 21.

This spread is hefty, but Siena will have no chance to score on the long-armed Blue Devils. This feels like a 30-plus-point Duke win.

Sean Paul

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(8) Ohio State vs. (9) TCU

Two teams that have played up well at times this year square off for a shot at Duke.

TCU’s physicality and mobility in the frontcourt match up well against Ohio State’s Devin Royal. Plus, the Horned Frogs could frustrate Bruce Thornton if they choose to switch ball screens (Thornton shreds drop coverage).

Ohio State nearly toppled Michigan in the Big Ten tournament, but I like the matchup for TCU’s defense and rebounding.

Jim Root

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(5) St. John's vs. (12) Northern Iowa

St. John’s just won the Big East, and the championship game was a 20-point win over UConn — a team I had pegged as an early Final Four participant. It held the Huskies to just 52 points and forced 16 turnovers.

Zuby Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins and Oziyah Sellers led the way. That’s no different than the regular season, as they’re their only double-digit scoring threats.

The issue they have heading into this tournament will be depth. The good thing for its first-round matchup is that I doubt it will be an issue early on.

Northern Iowa didn’t win the regular-season Missouri Valley title, instead using an impressive run in conference to beat UIC in dominant fashion. But this team finished just sixth during the regular season, and it struggled on the glass in a lot of its games.

While the Panthers rank 64th in average size, the Johnnies rank 61st. But Rick Pitino’s squad sits 28th in offensive rebounding. Northern Iowa is outside the top 300 in that category.

UNI is fortunate to have earned a spot, and I just don’t think this matchup has much upset potential. Don’t fall into the No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset pick in this one.

Jonathan Jorcin

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(4) Kansas vs. (13) Cal Baptist

This is a fascinating matchup for Cal Baptist, which played up in the nonconference against Colorado, BYU and Utah earlier this season.

Dominique Daniels is capable of going off against anybody in the WAC but it will be a difficult challenge for the Lancers against a KU defense that ranks fourth nationally in effective field-goal percentage allowed on defense.

I’m not confident that Cal Baptist will be able to find effective paint touches against KU, so Daniels is going to have to pop multiple 3s for CBU to stay in this game. He struggled badly in the WAC Championship game, and when he was cold, the offense went long stretches without scoring.

CBU is going to have to slow the tempo down here, and I anticipate Kansas will match that. There should be long, methodical possessions for CBU, and KU’s length will cause problems.

My guess is that CBU can make enough 3-point shots to stay in this game for a half, but Kansas will pull away against the Lancers, who are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance.

I’ll seek to lay it with Kansas or potentially bet a CBU team total under.

Joshua Nunn

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(6) Louisville vs. (11) USF

South Florida is a curveball for any opponent.

The Louisville coaching staff will have its hands full preparing the Cardinals to face a team with such a distinct personality.

South Florida led the nation in both free throws attempted and made per game, and ranked in the top ten nationally in offensive rebound rate and shortest average 2-point attempt.

The Bulls attack the basket, over and over. They run the floor, playing at the nation’s 15th-fastest tempo, and then either toss a quick 3 or make sure they get something near the rim, hopefully with contact.

Louisville’s defense checks most of the boxes to stop that attack. The Cardinals love a quick tempo and ranked in the top 10% nationally in defensive rebounding.

If there’s an issue, it’s in the foul column. Louisville ranked 10th among ACC teams in free-throw rate allowed.

Officiating will be a major factor in whether the Bulls can threaten Louisville. Most importantly, this should be a high-scoring game with a massive total.

Shane McNichol

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(3) Michigan State vs. (14) North Dakota State

Sparty is going to clean North Dakota State’s clocks.

The Bison’s rebounding numbers look good, but they haven’t played a single KenPom top-100 team this season.

Michigan State should dominate the boards and shove North Dakota State into a locker. The Bison’s soft frontcourt won’t be able to stand up.

The wildcard will be shooting, as it always is.

Sparty allows a high 3-point attempt rate, while the Bison have a ton of shooting.

That said, the Spartans should cruise to a win if they play their typical, consistent game.

Ky McKeon

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(7) UCLA vs. (10) UCF

Injuries clouded the momentum for UCLA, but Mick Cronin said star guard Donovan Dent and forward Tyler Bilodeau will be good to go for the NCAA Tournament.

I feel good about the Bruins, as Mick Cronin finally figured out how to use Dent.

The speedy guard is tough to stop when he gets rolling to the hoop. He dished out eight or more assists in each of his past six full games. Dent is a monster and has the ability to take over this game

UCF struggles to defend fours who can shoot. That’s where Bilodeau’s presence should make a big difference. He shot 46% from downtown this year, and UCF should be terrified to defend the pick-and-pop tandem of Dent and Bilodeau.

UCF’s defense has been dissapointing, ranking 101st nationally in efficiency with opponents shooting over 53% inside the arc. It won’t be easy for the Knights to stop all of UCLA’s weapons.

So, what’s the path for UCF? It needs to get lava hot from deep, as it did against BYU a month ago.

The Knights shoot 36% from deep and attempt 3s at just a 34% clip, but they’ll need more to keep up with the Bruins.

Sean Paul

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(2) UConn vs. (15) Furman

Alright, I’ll call my shot.

I think Furman can keep this one to a single-digit deficit, and perhaps pull off a stunning upset.

The Paladins dealt with injuries for most of league play, which left them as a 6-seed in the SoCon tournament.

But we saw what a healthy Furman squad can do, rattling off three wins in three days while scoring 1.20 PPP or more in each one.

The Dins have high-major size, with all five starters checking in at 6-foot-4 or taller. Starting bigs Charles Johnston and Cooper Bowser both stand 6-foot-11. Bowser’s length and defensive DNA will help limit UConn standout Tarris Reed.

Furman ranks just 200th nationally in offensive efficiency, but that’s a bit misleading. I buy into the Paladins shooting better than 32% from deep with Asa Thomas and Tom House healthy, especially with stud Freshman Alex Wilkins dishing it to them.

This is no disrespect to a terrific UConn team. However, the slower-paced Huskies should allow Furman to keep it fairly close — as long as the Paladins hit some 3s.

UConn’s offense took a step back after back-to-back titles. The Huskies struggle from the foul line, and they don’t get there often.

I don’t think UConn can simply bully Furman.

Sean Paul



West Region

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(1) Arizona vs. (16) LIU

I feel bad for Long Island.

The Sharks had the most talent in the NEC, but they’re facing the big boys now. Rod Strickland’s squad starts five players ranging from 6-foot-4 to 6-foot-8.

I like LIU’s roster with Greg Gordon, Malachi Davis, and Jamal Fuller, all of whom average over 15 points per game.

However, I don’t know how their offensive style translates against better teams. They had more athleticism and raw talent than other NEC squads, but that’s not the case in this matchup.

The 6-foot-8 number is why I’m confident that Long Island will get hammered.

Arizona is one of the nation’s biggest and most physical teams, starting 7-footer Mo Krivas and 6-8, 235-pound Koa Peat, or 6-8, 240-pound Tobe Awaka at the five.

The Wildcats grab offensive rebounds at a 38% clip, while Long Island gives up offensive rebounds at a 32% clip.

Arizona crushed mid-major teams during the non-conference slate, beating four of them by 30-plus points.

Sean Paul

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(8) Villanova vs. (9) Utah State

Villanova is reeling after losing to Georgetown in the Big East Tournament.

Meanwhile, Utah State won the Mountain West Tournament.

This matchup boils down to whether Villanova can shoot well from deep. If the Wildcats can’t, I don’t see them beating the Aggies.

The Wildcats attempt 3s on over 45% of field-goal attempts and make 35% ot them, but their offense can be one-dimensional that way.

The Wildcats are also shorthanded. Starting four-man Matt Hodge is done for the year, and Malachi Palmer took his spot in the starting five. Palmer isn’t quite the shooting threat that Hodge is.

I feel better about Utah State’s versatile scoring attack.

The Aggies rank 28th nationally in offensive efficiency, shoot 59% on 2s (11th nationally), 35% from deep (108th), and rank in the top 100 in free-throw rate. They don’t have to bank on a good shooting night to beat Villanova.

Sean Paul

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(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) High Point

Cue the points!

Two high-tempo teams with electric backcourts match up in what many could see as a classic 5 vs. 12 upset.

High Point ranks 24th nationally in average possession length on offense, per KenPom, while Wisconsin ranks 135th – a far cry from where it used to land under Bo Ryan.

The two backcourts – Nick Boyd and John Blackwell for the Badgers, Rob Martin and Scotty Washington/Conrad Martinez for the Panthers – should light up the scoreboard.

This matchup trends fairly well for the Badgers, too.

High Point has plenty of down-transfer talent, but the Panthers have not played a single top-100 team this season.

They could be in for a rude awakening similar to last year, when they could not quite hang with the fantastic execution of another Big Ten foe, Purdue.

Jim Root

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(4) Arkansas vs. (13) Hawaii

The SEC champion, Arkansas, will look to fend off the dangerous Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, who won the Big West Tournament.

This feels like one to put on an upset watch. This Rainbow Warriors team is tall and has former high-major players in Isaac Johnson, Yacine Toumi and Gytis Nemeiksa.

That group of forwards should lead to plenty of scoring against an Arkansas defense that allowed opponents to shoot 53% on 2s.

Plus, Arkansas almost lost to Winthrop and Samford in the nonconference slate. It won’t be a stranger to playing a mid-major team close.

Darius Acuff Jr. might just be the best player in the country. He took over the SEC Tournament and should thrive against a Hawaii defense that holds teams to a 38% assist rate — the top third-lowest nationally.

In all, I just don’t trust the Arkansas supporting cast. Nobody else on this roster, other than Acuff and Meleek Thomas, can score one-on-one, and Hawaii will force the Razorbacks to score one-on-one.

This one will be close.

Sean Paul

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(6) BYU vs. (11) Texas/NC State

The teams emerging from the First Four typically perform well once they reach the Round of 64, routinely advancing after playing in Dayton.

The odd part of this matchup stems from a scheduling quirk.

BYU does not play games on Sunday, limiting its possibilities to just three of the six possible venues.

The bracket fairies did them a service by choosing the West Coast option among the three possible Thursday/Saturday venues.

That means both Texas and NC State will hop on a plane, head to Dayton, play an NCAA Tournament game on Tuesday, and then fly more than 2,000 miles to Portland for a game against the Cougars on Thursday.

Typically, the First Four feeds to sites closer to Dayton, yet it’s possible the BYU exception made that difficult for the committee.

For a BYU team dealing with the loss of star shooter Richie Saunders to injury for the rest of the season, this little extra leg up is huge, especially considering the arena in Portland will be filled to the brim with Cougar faithful.

Shane McNichol

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(3) Gonzaga vs. (14) Kennesaw State

Kennesaw State’s analytical profile has two glaring weaknesses for opponents to exploit.

Defensively, the Owls are hack-happy, ranking 358th nationally in free-throw rate allowed. No team in all of college basketball allowed a higher percentage of their opponents’ points to come from the charity stripe.

For a team as big as Gonzaga, that is not an area where the Zags excel. Over 60% of the Zags’ points come from 2-point buckets, the third-highest in the country, with just 16.2% coming at the line (340th).

On the other end of the floor, Kennesaw State has issues in the paint, shooting poorly on the interior while ranking in the bottom 15 nationally in blocked shot rate. The Owls had 16% of their 2-point attempts blocked in C-USA play.

Gonzaga’s size will be a major factor, forcing Kennesaw State to try to keep the game close with jump shots.

That’s not impossible, but it's an uphill climb.

Shane McNichol

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(7) Miami (FL) vs. (10) Missouri

Mizzou is the lower seed, but it has a massive advantage playing in St. Louis. Tigers fans will pack the arena for a face-off with Miami’s first-year head coach, Jai Lucas.

Mizzou is a tough matchup for Miami because it can match the Canes’ physicality on the glass and interior. Mizzou has plenty of big bodies to throw at Malik Reneau, and Miami doesn’t have enough shooting to compensate.

Mark Mitchell is a matchup problem for anyone, and he should have a field day bullying his way to the hoop.

The Canes won’t necessarily exploit Mizzou’s suspect ball handling, putting another point in the Tigers’ favor.

I say Mizzou wins.

Ky McKeon

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(2) Purdue vs. (15) Queens

Purdue is going to be able to score at will in this one.

Queens’ defense is flimsy at best and a layup line at worst, as the Royals are thin across the roster, and their positional length isn’t enough to compensate for that physical frailty.

Queens has not played up well this season. The Royals lost by 20 at Villanova, 25 at Virginia, 28 at Arkansas, 38 at Wake Forest and 41 at Auburn. Unsurprisingly, that made for an 0-5 record against the spread.

Playing fast as a team with no defense and a major athleticism deficiency is a terrific recipe for getting blown out by better teams.

Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff could combine for 40 points and 20 rebounds in this one. With Braden Smith potentially breaking the all-time assist record in this game, Purdue’s offense will be humming.

Purdue controlling the tempo and forcing this into the half-court prevents me from adamantly endorsing the over, but the Boilers — or simply the Boilers’ team total — will be an appealing wager in my eyes.

Jim Root

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Midwest Region

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(1) Michigan vs. (16) UMBC/Howard

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(8) Georgia vs. (9) Saint Louis

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(5) Texas Tech vs. (12) Akron

If you like guard play, this game is for you.

Akron is led by 20-plus point per game scorer Tavari Johnson, and Texas Tech is led by Christian Anderson, perhaps the top point guard in the sport.

Texas Tech went 3-3 to finish the year after stud forward JT Toppin went down with an injury. Of course, people will likely look to fade the wounded Red Raiders, but this is a good matchup for them.

The Zips struggle to defend beyond the arc, allowing opponents to shoot 35% from deep.

With Toppin out, the Red Raiders are all about shooting, attempting 3s at a 48% rate and hitting 39% of them – a top four mark nationally.

On the flip side, Texas Tech loves to force missed 3-point shots, holding teams to 31% from deep.

Akron wants to shoot 3s as well and is efficient from deep, but the Red Raiders will likely prove too tough.

Sean Paul

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(4) Alabama vs. (13) Hofstra

This is a tremendous stylistic clash.

Alabama is well-known for its desire to push pace (fourth nationally in tempo, per KenPom) and launch 3s (first in 3PA rate).

Hofstra, meanwhile, wants to bog the game down (334th in average offensive possession length) and can completely take away the rim (third nationally in 2P% defense, sixth in average 2-point attempt distance allowed).

Few mid-major teams have a better guard duo than the Pride’s Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead, and if Hofstra can control the pace, it could frustrate the free-flowing Tide.

If Alabama can’t get easy points and is a little cold from deep, we could see Davis and Edmead outduel Alabama’s Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway in an elite guard battle.

Jim Root

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(6) Tennessee vs. (11) Miami (OH)/SMU

Tennessee makes its living on the offensive glass, grabbing more than 45% of its own misses. That’s the leading number in men’s college hoops and the highest offensive rebounding rate in KenPom’s database since 2001.

Tennessee plays slow, but nearly doubles its possessions by hammering the glass, a tough formula to beat.

Immediately, you turn to see if either Miami or SMU has a prayer to protect the glass against the Vols.

SMU ranks 228th nationally in defensive rebounding rate. The Mustangs held their own against Duke, a heavy offensive rebounding team, but got obliterated on the boards by Miami and Virginia.

On the other hand, Miami (OH) has done a decent job, yet, like all Miami stats, you have to consider strength of schedule.

The RedHawks have not seen power conference size or athleticism all season. Kent State is the only opponent that ranks in the top 75 nationally in offensive rebounding rate, and the Flashes grabbed 17 of their own misses in an overtime thriller.

in KenPom’s top 75 of offensive rebounding rate to face the Hawks, and grabbed 17 of their own misses in an overtime thriller.

SMU will be both Miami’s first power conference opponent and its toughest test on the glass. If Miami survives, that’s a key stat to evaluate before betting them against the Vols.

Shane McNichol

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(3) Virginia vs. (14) Wright State

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(7) Kentucky vs. (10) Santa Clara

For a Kentucky team that has seen a bunch of ups and downs with a fluctuating roster this season, Santa Clara makes for an interesting test.

The Broncos play the fastest tempo in the West Coast conference and spread the floor, looking for jumpers. Eight different players shoot 2.5 or more 3-point attempts per game for Herb Sendek’s Broncos, challenging every defender in closeouts.

For Kentucky, that could be a problem.

The Cats rank 10th in the SEC in 3-point shooting and 3-point rate allowed on the defensive end of the floor. Teams were able to find jumpers against a Kentucky team that plays traditional bigs that prefer to protect the rim.

Three Santa Clara bigs readily shoot the 3, with Allen Graves and Jake Ensminger hitting over 40% of their looks. That will pull Kentucky’s rim protectors like Malachi Moreno out to the perimeter and keep them chasing instead of waiting to stop Bronco dribble-drives.

If Santa Clara can make shots, a Broncos win is well within reach.

Shane McNichol

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(2) Iowa State vs. (15) Tennessee State



South Region

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(1) Florida vs. (16) Prairie View A&M/Lehigh

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(8) Clemson vs. (9) Iowa

You may not find two better transition defenses in the entire country.

Both Clemson and Iowa rank outside the top 330 in tempo, per KenPom, so this game should be a half-court slog.

That might mean that Iowa has an edge, as the shot-making of Bennett Stirtz becomes amplified in a low-possession game.

A key factor here could be the torn ACL suffered by Clemson forward Carter Welling. The Hawkeyes are vulnerable in the paint, and Welling is an excellent scorer in the Tigers’ high-low attack.

RJ Godfrey and Nick Davidson should still find success, but removing Welling makes the Tigers’ frontcourt attack less imposing.

Jim Root

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(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) McNeese

McNeese State drew a horrible matchup.

I know Vanderbilt had some up-and-down games against full-court pressure, namely against Memphis in November. But that wasn’t a lasting issue.

The Commodores have elite guard play with Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles. The team boasted an elite 13% turnover rate.

That’ll bode well against McNeese State. The Cowboys lead the country with a 24% defensive turnover rate, relentlessly pressing.

Once Vandy breaks the pressure, it can use its 35% 3-point percentage to light up the Cowboys from deep.

I can’t see McNeese State scoring much in the half-court. Shooting is an issue, as the Cowboys hit only 31.9% of their 3s.

An underrated stat to look at is Vanderbilt’s offensive rebounding. The Commodores aren’t a great offensive rebounding team, but McNeese State is one of the nation’s worst defensive rebounding teams.

With a bigger lineup featuring AK Okereke and Devin McGlockton, the Commodores should generate second-chance opportunities and slow McNeese down.

Sean Paul

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(4) Nebraska vs. (13) Troy

Can Nebraska finally break the drought and win an NCAA Tournament game?

I’m not sure.

Since Nebraska's first loss on January 27th, it has ranked 28th nationally in Torvik’s efficiency ratings. In those 13 games, the Cornhuskers rank 112th in offensive efficiency while shooting 34% from deep.

Defense is the DNA of Fred Hoiberg’s bunch. Nebraska ranks seventh nationally in defensive efficiency, but 3-point variance could sting them in this matchup. The Huskers held teams to 29% shooting from 3 and just 50% from 2-point range this year.

Troy has hoped and prayed to figure out its shooting woes this year. What better time than now to fix it? The Trojans attempt 3s 45% of the time and connect at a 33% clip.

I think it can get hot for one day. Cooper Campbell and Cobi Campbell shoot close to 40% from deep, while Thomas Dowd can hit an occasional 3.

The X-Factor is 6-foot-7 point guard Victor Valdes. He loves to operate in pick-and-rolls and back opponents down – and he’ll do that against the smaller Nebraska guards. If he can make a couple of 3s, that would be huge, though he’s only shot 21% from deep this year.

Also, keep an eye on Theo Seng’s status. He missed the last few games of the year for Troy. If he plays, the Trojans can rotate between Dowd, Seng, and Jerrell Bellamy at the four and five. That frontcourt might be better than Nebraska’s.

I’m out on the Huskers. Give me Troy.

Sean Paul

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(6) UNC vs. (11) VCU

North Carolina is going to have its hands full in this matchup.

Post Caleb Wilson’s injury, North Carolina ranks 39th nationally in Torvik’s adjusted efficiency metric, while VCU is ranked 29th during the same stretch.

VCU’s Terrence Hill Jr. will cause fits against North Carolina’s backcourt with his playmaking ability.

On the season, Hill has a 2.8 assist-to-turnover ratio while leading the team in scoring, thanks to his ability to pick his spots out of the pick-and-roll, where he ranks in the 91st percentile nationally in points per possession.

Where VCU can really hurt the Tar Heels is its ability to shoot the 3. North Carolina ranks 216th nationally in 3-point shooting allowed, while the Rams rank 35th in 3-point shooting.

VCU played two ACC teams in the regular season, beating Virginia Tech by 18 and taking NC State to the wire in a six-point loss.

With no Wilson, North Carolina is vulnerable.

Jordan Mann

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(3) Illinois vs. (14) Penn

Penn upset Yale in eye-popping fashion in the Ivy League final. Former Duke and Virginia big man TJ Power dropped 44 points, including the game-tying 3 in the final seconds to send the game to overtime.

It was a fairly shocking upset, given that Penn was missing leading scorer Ethan Roberts due to a concussion and Yale was favored by 9.5 points.

This is a Penn team that started Ivy League play 2-4 but has now lost just once since Jan. 30.

The Quakers will face the gigantic Illinois frontline that hammers teams on the offensive glass. Penn’s bigs will face major challenges in the paint and trying to score over the Ivisic brothers inside.

Illinois has been sharp against lesser competition, winning all 18 of its games against teams outside KenPom’s top-30 teams. The Illini went 8-2 against the spread when favored by more than 15 points.

Shane McNichol

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(7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Texas A&M

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(2) Houston vs. (15) Idaho

Poor Idaho. I was rooting for the Vandals to pull a “weaker” 2-seed, because the world deserves to enjoy the majesty of Brody Rowbury.

Having said that, there’s a small chance Idaho can hang (at least within the spread). The Vandals have some (not a ton of) size, but they’re a top-five defensive rebounding team, they can take care of the rock, and they fire up a ton of 3s.

To hang with Houston, you need to be able to keep them off the offensive glass, take care of the ball, and spray from deep.

The issue is that Houston tends to decimate inferior competition. Lehigh “kind of” hung with it early in the year, losing by 18. But the Coogs destroyed other mid-to-low majors.

This is spread-dependent. If Idaho is catching over 20, it’s a possible bet.

Ky McKeon



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