The Wisconsin Badgers take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, PA. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Wisconsin is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. The total is set at 159.5 points.
Here’s my Wisconsin vs. Penn State predictions and college basketball picks for January 22, 2026.
Wisconsin vs Penn State Prediction
My Pick: Under 160.5 or Better
My Wisconsin vs Penn State best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wisconsin vs. Penn State Odds
| Badgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 159.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Nittany Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 159.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
- Wisconsin vs Penn State spread: Wisconsin -5.5
- Wisconsin vs Penn State over/under: 159.5 points
- Wisconsin vs Penn State moneyline: Wisconsin -260, Penn State +210
Wisconsin vs Penn State College Basketball Betting Preview
Wisconsin Basketball
In mid-January, Wisconsin finds itself inside the NCAA Tournament bubble, but not safely in the field. A 9-5 start was shakier than expected, with no wins over top-50 competition prior to the calendar flipping to 2026.
Since then, however, the Badgers have gotten hot. Wisconsin rides a four-game winning streak, including one of the best wins in college basketball this season.
The Badgers stormed into Ann Arbor and toppled undefeated Michigan on the road. The win showcased some of Wisconsin's strengths, but it was primarily built on a ridiculous shooting performance. The Badgers tied a season-high 15 made triples, shooting 46% from long range.
Backcourt duo John Blackwell and Nick Boyd combined for 48 points against one of the nation's top defenses.
The long ball has been a weapon for Wisconsin, especially during this hot streak. During the four-game winning streak, the Badgers are hitting 41% from deep, well above their season average.
This season, Wisconsin is taking 3s at a top-15 rate. When those shots have fallen, the Badgers look potent. When the shots get cold, they stay cold. In the two prior games, Wisconsin was just 8-of-47 from deep (17%).
This season, Wisconsin is 11-1 when shooting 30% or better from long range, with the lone loss coming to Villanova in overtime. When the Badgers made 25% or worse from outside the arc, they went just 1-5.
Even having six games with that low of a shooting percentage speaks to the streaky nature of the Badgers' collective shooting.
Penn State Basketball
The good news for Penn State basketball is that Penn State football is such a mess that no one is noticing the dire situation on the court.
The bad news is pretty much everything else.
The Nittany Lions are 0-7 in Big Ten play, following a 23-point drubbing by mediocre Maryland, and the only two wins on their slate since December began came over Campbell and NC Central. Penn State has played nine power conference opponents and lost nine times.
If you want to be optimistic, the Nittany Lions have performed better than their record for stretches of games. Of those nine losses, four came by single digits (Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois, all top-10 KenPom teams).
If you want to be pessimistic, steer your eyes toward the Penn State defensive effort. The Nittany Lions rank 208th in the nation in defensive efficiency, last in the Big Ten. Penn State has allowed conference opponents to score 1.26 points per possession.
If that were to hold for the season, it would be the worst defense in the Big Ten in the KenPom era (since 1997). No team in that span has even allowed 1.2 points per possession to Big Ten opponents. You can't be setting all-time negative records in a conference that houses Rutgers!
Sunday's loss at Maryland was emblematic of this team's issues. The Terps hung 56 first-half points on the board, leading by 30 at the break. Maryland found 34 3-point attempts and made more than half of them, while outrebounding Penn State 39-21.
This season, in 18 games, Penn State's entire team has 26 blocked shots. Georgia has over five times as many blocks, with 141 this season. There are four players in college hoops who have double Penn State's 26 blocks.
Penn State's offense is less troublesome, but that's easy to do by default. Fans in Happy Valley can take some solace in the fact that four of Mike Rhoades' top eight guys in terms of minutes per game this season are freshmen.
In the portal era, that might not mean much with a payday elsewhere always around the corner.
Wisconsin vs. Penn State Betting Analysis
That Penn State defense makes any bet on the Nittany Lions require a bettor to hold their nose and close their eyes before submitting the wager.
At least this game comes at home against a Wisconsin team that's been hot and should see shooting regression soon. I'd like Penn State to cover if this number inches higher to +7.5 or so, but at the opening number of just +5.5, I'm staying clear of the spread.
Instead, I'll expect Wisconsin's shooting to regress and look at the under. That's hard to do with Penn State's defensive issues, but there's likely regression coming for the Nits as well. Only three of Penn State's seven Big Ten games have topped this total (160.5).
Even if Wisconsin wants to push the pace, Penn State is allowing the eighth-slowest average possession defensively in the country.
A slower pace is joined by a cold shooting night as snow gathers across the country, making the under the right play.
My Pick: Under 160.5 or Better
