Wisconsin-Oregon Betting Odds: Opening Spread, Analysis for 2019 NCAA Tournament

Wisconsin-Oregon Betting Odds: Opening Spread, Analysis for 2019 NCAA Tournament article feature image

Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Wisconsin Badgers forward Ethan Happ (22).

#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Oregon NCAA Tournament Betting Odds

  • Spread: Wisconsin -1
  • Over/Under: 116.5
  • Date: Friday, March 22
  • Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: San Jose, Calif.
  • TV: TBS

Wisconsin’s Statistical Profile

Wisconsin relied on its defense to carry it to a fourth place finish in the Big Ten, ending the regular season at 14-6 in conference play. The Badgers allowed just 61.2 points per game in the regular season, and their defensive adjusted efficiency (87.4) ranks fourth in the country per KenPom.

Their biggest win came back in mid-January against Michigan, who were 17-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country at the time. Wisconsin came away with a 10-point home win as a 3-point underdog. Interestingly, though, the Badgers’ biggest upset in terms of the point spread came on the road against Nebraska (+3.5).

Up until last year, Wisconsin had made the tournament in 19 consecutive seasons, and in recent history, the Badgers have been good to bettors in the Big Dance. Our Bet Labs database has Wisconsin at 22-13-3 against the spread in tournament games since 2005, the sixth-best record in the nation over that span. — Danny Donahue

  • Record: 23-10
  • Adj. Efficiency Rank: 12
  • Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 45
  • Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
  • Tempo Rank: 335

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Oregon Statistical Profile

Oregon ran through the Pac-12 Tournament and finished the season with eight straight wins in total. The Ducks really found their form after losing star freshman Bol Bol earlier in the season.

Oregon plays suffocating defense, ranking 18th nationally in efficiency, and gave up fewer than 55 points in three of their four Pac-12 Tournament games.

  • Record: 23-12
  • Adj. Efficiency Rank: 43
  • Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 108
  • Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
  • Tempo Rank: 328

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Wisconsin-Oregon Instant Bracket, Betting Picks

This is an Oregon team that started to come on at the end of the year, which makes sense considering all it dealt with earlier this season. The Ducks lost Bol Bol for the year back in December, and not only did he average 21 and 10, but he also anchored their interior defense with his 7-foot-2 frame. Oregon also had to manage through stretches without forwards Louis King (13.1 ppg) and Kenny Wooten (6.2 ppg). It took the Ducks a while to find their identity, but they eventually did just in time to save their season by winning the Pac-12 conference tourney.

That identity is clearly on the defensive end, where some of their metrics resemble the Oregon squad that went to the Final Four and lost by one to UNC two years ago. Oregon head coach Dana Altman’s teams are always tough to face in a tourney setting, as he will press, as well as play zone, man, and a morphing hybrid of both. The one area of weakness for the Ducks is their interior D, which 6-foot-10, 237-pound Wisconsin center Ethan Happ (17.5 ppg) should be able to exploit at will.

Going back to the Oregon offense, its current iteration is nowhere close to the 2016 version of this squad and is liable to go into serious droughts, which could signal doom against an elite Wisconsin defense that ranks third nationally in Adjusted Efficiency (87.1, per KenPom).

I should also mention that this game will be played on the west coast, which could give a slight edge to the Ducks. Ultimately, though, I think Happ will be the difference in a battle of two strong defensive teams. Wisconsin has the shooters to defeat Oregon’s zone, and the Badgers also don’t turn the ball over much — both of which will be of major help when Oregon goes zone and presses.

The wild card here is the Hack-a-Happ strategy, which could exploit his abysmal free throw shooting (46.5%), but I still think Wisconsin escapes with a win against what will be a trendy upset pick in the Ducks.

Early ATS lean: Wisconsin
Early bracket pick: Wisconsin — Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Wisconsin-Oregon Projections

Sean Koerner’s proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.

  • Spread: Wisconsin -5.5
  • Total: 121.5
  • Proj Score: Wisconsin 63.5 | Oregon 58
  • Win Probability: Wisconsin 70% | Oregon 30%
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