LA-Monroe vs. UTEP Odds & Betting Predictions - September 21, 2025

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As discussed in G5 deep dive. UTEP defense should shut down the ULM offensive attack here and qb play for UTEP has been strong. Like this play

@Breese Best Bet 1 https://myaction.app/XJGyXGRLJWb

I said it in the preseason, our very first preview, if the QB position pops and this patchwork offensive line is decent, this team will be a threat in Conference USA. Well, Malachi Nelson has been fine, just completed 2/3 of his passes against Texas in a no-sweat cover. They were 40-point dogs and lost by 17. And this was without Kam Thomas who is out for at least a month with a knee. Line play has been passable, not great, but not a trainwreck, keeping Nelson upright and giving Hahsaun Wilson room to operate. He’s averaging over 11 yards per carry, and should be able to pop against Monroe’s lackluster run defense. Scotty Walden’s system with Kenny Odom to build a gameplan around, they’ll score points. But this play is really about the ULM offense against UTEP’s defense. Despite playing Utah State and Texas already, UTEP is first nationally in tackling per PFF and top 20 in HAVOC. So they’re creating negative plays and not letting teams off the hook with poor fundamental tackling. ULM’s stats are a mess because they played an awful FCS school in St. Francis and then Alabama. So I’m not going to touch the fact that they’re dead last in HAVOC allowed when they possess the football. Let me just say, without Ahmad Hardy who is tearing it up for Mizzou, they don’t have an offensive identity. Coach Vincent needs a bellcow and his best offensive player is Braylon McReynolds who is 5’7” 190 sopping wet. UTEP will stack the box and dare Armenta to beat them. His QBR against Alabama 4.2/100, sure, no problem. Against St. Francis 8.5/100, HUGE PROBLEM. Six of his last eight starts he’s been sub-20 on QBR, he’s inaccurate, holds the ball too long, and doesn’t have wideouts who separate. UTEP by two touchdowns here in the Sun Bowl.