The ULM Warhawks take on the UTEP Miners in El Paso, Texas. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
UTEP is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. ULM, meanwhile, comes in as a +5.5 underdog and sits at +180 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The total is set at 47 points.
Here’s my ULM vs. UTEP prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
ULM vs UTEP Prediction
- ULM vs. UTEP Pick: UTEP -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
My UTEP vs. ULM best bet is on the Miners to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
ULM vs UTEP Odds
| ULM Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- ULM vs UTEP Spread: UTEP -5.5, ULM +5.5
- ULM vs UTEP Over/Under: 47 Points
- ULM vs UTEP Moneyline: ULM+180, UTEP -220
ULM vs UTEP College Football Betting Preview
ULM hits the road out west to face UTEP this Saturday, and I’m taking the Miners laying 5.5 points.
Back in the preseason’s first preview, I said if UTEP’s quarterback emerged and its patchwork offensive line gelled, it would be a real threat in the conference.
Well, Malachi Nelson has stepped up under center.
The former five-star recruit completed 24-of-36 passes against Texas in a no-pressure situation in a game UTEP lost by just 17— and that was without Kam Thomas, who’s out for at least a month with a knee injury.
The offensive line is passable, as PFF grades have them hovering around 100th in both run and pass blocking. But the key is they’re giving Nelson enough time. He’s not running scared like he has at times throughout his collegiate career.
The line continues to open up running lanes, and that’s huge for running back Hahsaun Wilson. When given space, Wilson can really break loose, averaging over 11 yards per carry this season. I expect him to keep it up against a ULM defense that’s far from formidable against the run.
Ultimately, Scotty Walden’s offense should score plenty of points, especially with Kenny Odom to build around at receiver.
That said, this game really hinges on ULM’s offense vs. UTEP’s defense.
The Miners defense ranks No. 1 in tackling, according to PFF, and sits in the top 20 for creating Havoc. They generate negative plays and don’t give away freebies.
Plus, ULM’s offense isn’t exactly explosive. It struggles to protect quarterback Aidan Armenta and often gets pushed into tough spots.
When behind the sticks, ULM basically has to get the ball to Braylon McReynolds, who's the only offensive player who can make something happen.
But McReynolds, standing 5-foot-7 and 190 pounds as a sophomore, isn’t built to be a bell-cow like Ahmad Hardy was last year. Hardy was the heart of that offense, and you can see it now at Missouri, where he’s thriving.
This season, all eyes fall on Armenta, who's inaccurate and holds onto the ball too long, which shows up in how often he’s pressured and sacked.
Plus, his numbers aren’t flattering.
Against Alabama, his QBR was a miserable 4.2 out of 100. Then, against St. Francis (PA), he posted an 8.5 QBR. That's a horrific number against an FCS opponent. Of his last eight starts dating back to last season, he has posted a sub-20 QBR six times.
ULM vs UTEP Pick, Betting Analysis
I think UTEP wins by two touchdowns here.
This feels like a potential ATS play worth laddering up. If you’re bold and want to find some plus-money numbers, playing this at 7, 10 or even 13.5 feels like good value.
UTEP’s offense is clicking, and its defense is nasty in key areas. That's a bad recipe for a ULM offense that struggles to keep pace. I’m backing the Miners to cover comfortably.
Pick: UTEP -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
