UTSA vs. Rice Odds & Betting Predictions - October 3, 2026

I have this game closer to 61, and I think 54.5 is a number the books are going to regret by the end of the first quarter. Start with Rice's defense, because there isn't much to start with. This is a unit ranked 134th in Adjusted Defense. It gives up explosive plays at the second-worst rate in the country (28.8%, #134), it can't stop the run (#135 in Adjusted EPA/Rush allowed), and opponents convert third downs on it more than half the time (52.9%, #123). Rice has given up 28 to Western Michigan, 38 to Fresno State, and 52 to Notre Dame. UTSA's offense isn't elite, but it does the one thing this defense can't handle: it runs the ball (#18 in Adjusted EPA/Rush) and it protects Owen McCown as well as anybody (#13 in sack rate allowed). McCown has seven touchdowns to one pick and is completing nearly 69% of his throws. UTSA just put up 59 on Colorado State. Thirty-five here is the floor, not the ceiling. Why It's the Over, Not a UTSA Team Total Now here's why this is an over and not a UTSA team total: UTSA's defense is bad too. Genuinely bad. It's 129th in havoc, 128th in sack rate and 111th against the run. This is a defense that doesn't make plays and doesn't get off the field. Rice's offense is nothing special (#94 Adjusted Offense), but it has scored 21 and 24 in its last two games against defenses better than this one, and it's been one of the unluckiest teams in the country, with a -10.9 luck index (130th nationally) and brutal turnover luck. That's a team due to get a few bounces, playing a defense that hands them out

Rocking with Duck’s play but going for the full ladder on a blowout. DraftKings alt line available at +205

@Joshua_Nunn https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bboc-6th-gear-cfb-week-5/id1579379256?i=1000792322154