2019 Outback Bowl Betting Guide: Mississippi State, Iowa Boast Elite Defenses

Jan 01, 2019 07:56 AM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nate Stanley and Nick Fitzgerald

2019 Outback Betting Odds: Iowa-Mississippi State

  • Odds: Mississippi State -7
  • Over/Under: 41
  • Date: Tuesday, Jan. 1
  • Location: Tampa, Fla.
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2

>> All odds as of Monday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets


Mississippi State brings its elite defense to the Outback Bowl, where it will face an Iowa team that struggled to run the ball all season.

But MSU never figured outs its passing game and got dominated by the SEC’s best defenses.

Odds Movement for Outback Bowl

By Danny Donahue

Mississippi State opened as a 5-point favorite in the Outback Bowl, but has since jumped through the key number of -7 up to -7.5 at a handful of books. Sixty-four percent of bets accounting for 54% of dollars are behind the Bulldogs.

Sixty-three percent of bets have also hit the under. Generating 83% of money, those bets have dropped the total from 44.5 to 42.

Trends to Know

By Evan Abrams

In 2018, Mississippi State ended the season 9-2 (81.8%) to the under, going under the total by 12.6 PPG, the second-most profitable team to the under in the country.

Since Oct. 1, Mississippi State has faced three opponents allowing fewer than 20 PPG on the season and the under is 3-0, going under the total by 20.8 PPG.

By John Ewing

Iowa is an underdog getting little public support. Since 2005 teams like the Hawkeyes have returned a profit of $2,415 for a $100 bettors and hit at a 62% clip.

Mississippi State’s Passing Game Never Got Going 

By Steve Petrella

Mississippi State was horrific on offense against good defenses because it was so one-dimensional. It combined to score just 16 points against Alabama, LSU, Kentucky and Florida. 16! It topped 202 total yards in one of those games.

Iowa’s defense ranks 20th in S&P+, but doesn’t match up incredibly well with Mississippi State’s power-running offense.

Iowa Pass Rush May Be Neutralized 

By Steve Petrella

Iowa ranks 21st in adjusted sack rate and second in sack rate on passing downs. That’s been a huge advantage for the Hawkeyes.