The Arizona State Sun Devils take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, TX. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Baylor is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 59.5 points.
Here’s my Arizona State vs. Baylor predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
Arizona State vs Baylor Prediction
- Arizona State vs. Baylor Pick: Baylor -1.5
My Baylor vs. Arizona State best bet is on the Bears spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Arizona State vs Baylor Odds
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Arizona State vs Baylor point spread: Baylor -2.5
- Arizona State vs Baylor over/under: 59.5 points
- Arizona State vs Baylor moneyline: Arizona State +110, Baylor -130
Arizona State vs Baylor Preview
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview: Will Offense Get Back on Course?
Arizona State was one of the preseason favorites to win the Big 12, and rightfully so, given it won the title in Arlington last season.
It hasn't been the start that Sun Devil fans would've hoped for however, as Arizona State was upset by Mississippi State in Week 2 in Starkville.
Fortunately for Kenny Dillingham's team, it has a clean slate entering conference play, and all of the Sun Devils' goals and aspirations are still in front of them.
Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson remain one of the most formidable QB/WR duos in America, but everything else about this offense seems to be missing a beat.
Even in its two wins against Northern Arizona and Texas State, there have been some sloppy penalties and mental mistakes that have stalled drives.
I expect Dillingham and Leavitt to get things back on schedule as the season goes on, but Saturday night will be a big test in another raucous environment.
The Sun Devils were punched in the mouth in the first half in Starkville and can't afford to get off to a slow start against a high-powered Baylor offense.
On the other side of the ball, there have been plenty of positives — other than the first half against Mississippi State.
Linebackers Keyshaun Elliott and Jordan Crook are both versatile playmakers, and on the back-end, Myles "Ghost" Rowser and Xavion Alford make it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to find their targets down the field.
Baylor will definitely be the best offense the Arizona State defense has seen to this point, so it'll be interesting to see where exactly this unit stacks up.
Forcing a turnover or two would go a long way in helping Arizona State secure the road victory.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Defense Isn't Very Good
Year six is a critical season for Dave Aranda as the head man at Baylor, and thus far, there have been both positives and negatives.
The good? The Bears notched an impressive come-from-behind victory at SMU, and the offense has been explosive in each game its taken the field.
The bad? The defense has been extremely poor, particularly in the home opener to Auburn that Baylor lost because it couldn't slow down the Tigers' rushing attack.
All that said, a 2-1 non-conference campaign with that schedule is nothing to frown at, and Baylor's postseason chances will come down to how it fares in Big 12 play.
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been incredible, already accumulating 859 passing yards and seven touchdowns with zero interceptions. He's playing like the mature veteran that he is, and the offense is running smoothly as a result.
For the Bears to be a serious contender in the Big 12, they must continue to score it at an efficient rate, as there are some holes on defense that will be tough to fix.
Aranda is known as an elite defensive mind, but there seems to be some major personnel concerns, particularly on the interior of the defensive line.
Right now, Baylor is allowing 235 rushing yards per game, and that's also left it susceptible to big plays in the passing game (especially when Aranda has been forced to bring another body or two up into the box).
I trust that Aranda will be able to correct some things as the season progresses, but it'll likely come down to how quickly he can do that. Arizona State will be a good litmus test of where exactly this defense is at.
Arizona State vs Baylor Pick, Betting Analysis
Give me the home team as a short favorite in what should be a really fun one in the Big 12 on Saturday night.
The Sun Devils' offense just doesn't look quite right without Cam Skattebo in the backfield, and they're going to need to score it plenty to keep pace with a Baylor offense that's been elite to start the year.
The Bears can create chunk plays both on the ground and through the air, and I don't see Arizona State being able to go blow for blow with them, even with Baylor's defensive struggles.
Leavitt will make his fair share of plays, but it won't be enough in what should be a rowdy atmosphere in Waco.
I'll roll with Baylor to get it done at home, putting itself in strong early positioning in the Big 12 race.
Pick: Baylor -1.5
