Arizona State vs. Utah Odds & Picks: Weather Impacting the Over/Under
Troy Wayrynen, USA Today Sports.
- Utah is a two touchdown favorite in the latest betting odds for its Saturday contest against Arizona State.
- The Sun Devils have been one of the surprise teams in the nation thus far, but might be overvalued compared to their AP Poll ranking.
Arizona State at Utah Odds
- Spread: Utah -13
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Time: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET
- TV: Pac 12 Network
Arizona State vs. Utah Line Movement
In one of the more interesting betting splits of the weekend, the public is overwhelmingly taking the points in this matchup. Seventy-two percent, to be exact, have landed on Arizona State, but have been unable to force this line up to two-touchdowns. Part of the reason has been the 44% of money on Utah, meaning real dollars are much more balanced.
And with 89% of money from 62% of tickets on the Under — most likely due to the weather forecast — oddsmakers have had no choice but to slide this total down from 49.5 to 46.5 as of Friday afternoon. — Danny Donahue
Collin Wilson: How I’m Playing This Total
The race for the Pac 12 South will become more clear after the Sun Devils visit Rice Eccles.
Herm Edwards has yet to lose a Pac 12 game by more than a touchdown through his second season. That did not stop oddsmakers from setting the line near two touchdowns.
After failing to score 20 points against Michigan State and Sacramento State early in the season, the Sun Devils pass game has found its rhythm over the past three weeks. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has over 1,600 yards, eight touchdowns and just one interception in that span.
The Utah defense is one of the best in the country at shutting down the run, but they can be beat in the mid-range pass game.
Despite ranking ninth in defensive havoc, the Utes have a defensive passing success rate rank of 91st. Utah has been stellar defending pass explosiveness, though, allowing just 10 passes to go for at least 20 yards. That is impressive considering the Utes rank 59th in the FBS in allowing 10-plus yard passes. The best plan of attack for Arizona State is to get Daniels to go over Utah’s defensive line.
Our projected spread pegs this game at Utah -12.5, so there is no value in a play on the side at the current -13. However, money moved this total down in anticipation of wind and precipitation. The latest forecast calls for rain and wind, but we should know more by Saturday morning. If the storms completely miss Rice Eccles, it is to the benefit of both offenses and the respective passing attacks.
I will wait for the steam to stop on the total while monitoring the weather. If the chance or rain decreases, I will take a full-game over at 47 or better.
The Pick: Over 47
Stuckey: Waiting Out the Market
This is an extremely sharp line at -13. I was hoping we would possibly see a 10-or-under in which case I would’ve looked hard at the Utes — fresh off a 52-7 road rout of Oregon State.
But now, at -13? I might actually be looking at the Sun Devils if this gets to 14.
At some point, we just have to start trusting that Herm Edwards will scheme up a way to keep his team in the game. I know everyone wanted to clown on the hire at the time, but the results speak for themselves.
Since arriving in Tempe, Edwards has faced 14 Power 5 opponents. Twelve of those 14 games have been one-possession games that came down to the final minute.
It isn’t all about Herm, either. He has assembled one of the most underrated coaching staffs in the country, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Danny Gonzales is an excellent defensive coordinator who has brought the 3-3-5 to Arizona State and usually has a well-tailored game plan for each specific opponent. And the Sun Devils have Marvin Lewis, one of the best defensive coordinators in the history of the NFL, just hanging around as an advisor. That can’t hurt.
As for the total, I think it’s Under or nothing. This game features two top-20 scoring defenses that will face offenses that want to establish the run. Both defensive units are stout against the run — each ranking in the top-20 nationally in yards per carry.
Neither team will try and play fast, but the Utes are on a whole other level. Utah boasts the highest seconds per play number in the country. And we could have some weather in Salt Lake City tomorrow afternoon with 15-plus mph winds and rain.
The weather caused this total to tick down to 45, but its since been bet back up to 46.5/47. I liked it a little at 45, but if that’s the number that you end up having access to, an alternative option is to hope for a quick score and bet the under live.
At the moment I’m passing on the side, but the Sun Devils will be very tempting if this gets to 14 or above.
Keep in mind that while Utah perennially has one of the best special teams units in the country, that hasn’t been the case this year after losing their all-world kicker and punter.
It’s Arizona State that actually has the better special teams as of this moment. And that could make a difference, especially in regards to the spread.
The Pick(s): Under 45 or better; Arizona State +14 or better